Golf fans around the world celebrated Rory McIlroy’s victory last week. Many gamblers, on the other hand, were left kicking themselves. It seemed so obvious in hindsight—McIlroy had been playing great golf leading into Pebble, whereas Scottie Scheffler was just returning. But we seek big paydays in golf betting, which is why this week, most of us won’t be betting Scheffler at Tiger-like odds of +300 or lower. Scheffler will likely burn us, but we seek a rush of backing a player with mid-tier odds having a chance down the stretch at TPC Scottsdale with a potential large amount of money hitting our gambling accounts prior to the Super Bowl. Dream big with us.
RELATED: WM Phoenix Open DFS picks 2025: Our expert’s pick to win might surprise you
One of the longshots with enticing odds has the attention of two experts on our panel. Billy Horschel is ranked 16th in the world, and yet his odds are still 66-1 to win, despite coming off a great finish at Pebble Beach, where he ranked third in SG/approach for the week. These experts are actually PGA professionals—one of which is an anonymous swing coach giving his insights to us from the range of TPC Scottsdale, detailing what he’s seen in Horschel’s game since his close call at Royal Troon last year. The other is our partner Keith Stewart, CEO of Read The Line, who has boots on the grounds himself this week at TPC Scottsdale. Read below for more of their reasoning on why they’re jumping on Billy Ho to deliver us the nice return we all seek.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 WM Phoenix Open:
WM Phoenix Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Scottie Scheffler (+280, FanDuel) — This might be the equivalent of betting Tiger Woods in his prime at Torrey Pines or Bay Hill. The hand appears to not be issue studying his approach stats at Pebble. You won’t get rich betting numbers below 3-to-1, but you will have more money to bet the Super Bowl with this extra cash in the account.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Sahith Theegala (45-1, Coolbet) — Granted, the game has been mediocre to commence 2025, but this is a happy place for Sahith. With two top-five finishes over the past three years, he’s trending to win in Phoenix sometime soon. Why not this year?
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tom Kim (33-1, FanDuel) — This 33-1 number is a good one for Tom Kim here this week. He’s finished T-50 and T-17 at TPC Scottsdale in his career and is coming off of a T-7 last week. He’s constantly gaining strokes with his irons, and his putter can get as hot as anyone’s.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Sungjae Im (22-1, FanDuel) — Sungjae Im is 49 under par in four events this year. Im has two top-four results in just four starts and is hitting the ball very well. I watched him on the range last week and it was impressive. The stats say his irons were off at Pebble, but I’m going to chalk that up to the conditions. With a great scoring history in the desert, Sungjae is someone who could outbirdie Scottie to win the WMPO. Scoring, driving, and short game, Im has it all and come Sunday will have the trophy.
Watch the below video as PGA professional Keith Stewart breaks down his thoughts on Tom Kim at the WM Phoenix Open. Watch his full video of betting analysis with Run Pure Sports’ Matthew Wiley here.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Kurt Kitayama (66-1, Bet365) — The Vegas resident checks all the boxes at TPC Scottsdale—he’s fourth in SG/approach, eighth in SG/off the tee, 12th in par-5 scoring and a top-10 player in scrambling and his middle irons over the past 32 rounds, per RickRunGood.com. He’s at his best when he can miss a little off the tee, which he can do with these wider landing areas in the desert.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Sungjae Im (22-1, FanDuel) — As dumb as it feels to go against Scottie Scheffler this, I think SungBae is worth a look. He’s been very Jekyll and Hyde so far in 2025, going third, MC, T-4 and T-33 in four starts. Even with some shoddy approach numbers, he was under par in all three rounds at Pebble Beach last week. With more dome-like conditions expected at TPC Scottsdale, I see Im bouncing back with the irons and contending again on the weekend. Im has a pair of top-seven finishes in five career WM Phoenix Open starts and is long overdue for another dub, his last coming at the 2021 Shriners at TPC Summerlin, another desert-style golf course.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Kurt Kitayama (66-1, Bet365) — Kurt Kitayama is one of the few players in this field with the ball-striking upside to at least take on Scottie Scheffler. Kitayama ranks top-10 in this field in recent off-the-tee play, recent approach play, and long-term proximity from 150 to 200 yards. He is also returning to a golf course where he has recorded a top-25 finish in each appearance.
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Past results: The panel had a total of 15 outright winners in 2024, besting our 2023 total of 13. We also had a strong season of matchups and our very own Stephen Hennessey absolutely cleaned up in the top-10 market. Let’s keep it rolling in ‘25.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (above) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
WM Phoenix Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Billy Horschel (66-1, BetRivers) — Last week at Pebble wasn’t a flash in the pan, he played great over the fall following up his Open Championship performance. Billy has done an amazing job working his way back to the top, and he’s got some good vibes at TPC Scottsdale, where his putter can lead him up the leaderboard.
Mayo: Min Woo Lee (75-1, Bet365) — Min Woo was actually held back by his drive last week. That doesn’t happen often for one of the most prolific drivers on tour. Now, he has a habit of striking his irons like me when he starts grooving it with the smoke wagon, but maybe, just maybe, he can keep a modicum of the prowess he had with his approaches at Pebble Beach. These are similar greens to Sawgrass, too, the site of his career best putting week (+7.7 SG/putting in 2023).
Gdula: Robert MacIntyre (60-1, FanDuel) — MacIntyre is due for big-time putting regression and is a great tee-to-green player, ranking top 10 in that stat over his last 50 rounds versus the field. He has what it takes to beat this field.
Stewart: Billy Horschel (66-1, BetRivers) — Fresh off a 66 on Sunday and a T-9 finish at the AT&T, Billy Horschel is primed for a winning week. Ten straight cuts made and two top 10s in his last five WM Phoenix Open starts, Horschel has my attention. He gained significantly with his irons and putter at Pebble Beach in difficult conditions. Ever the showman, Billy loves the biggest stage, and there’s no bigger non-major event than this one. Throw in a great course history at the Memorial (comp course), and I’m all-in on Billy Ho!
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (75-1, FanDuel) — I love Akshay’s aggressiveness for TPC Scottsdale. He won’t be afraid to take hero lines off the tee, and his approach play and putter can get hot. You’re banking on someone making enough birdies to track down Scottie Scheffler, and the young gun has the fearless mentality and proven win upside to earn the win at these enticing odds.
Powers, Golf Digest: Nick Dunlap (150-1, BetRivers) — Is this not one of the grossest misprices you’ve ever seen? Not going to name names, but there are players who haven’t sniffed a win in ages at half this price. Dunlap has won twice in the last 13 months, and he turned a corner with his irons at Pebble, ranking eighth in the field in SG/approach. His off-the-tee game has been shocking, but that shouldn’t punish him as much at TPC Scottsdale. A combination of hot irons and a hot putter is what’s required to win the WM, and Dunlap appears sharp in both of those areas right now.
Lack: Sam Stevens (90-1, FanDuel) — Sam Stevens is playing some excellent golf, and similar to Kitayama, he possesses the ball-striking upside to really make some noise on this golf course. Stevens is coming off a top-15 finish at Pebble Beach, where he gained four strokes off the tee, and in the prior week, he finished runner-up at Torrey Pines.
WM Phoenix Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Sam Burns (25-1, FanDuel) — In three starts this year, Burns has only one top-25 finish. It seems like he really starts clicking into gear when he gets to Florida, so despite him having some good finishes here, we’ll wait for a couple weeks to play him.
Mayo: Sungjae Im (22-1, FanDuel) — He’ll scare the lead at some point on the weekend. Then he’ll fade back into a quality T-7.
Gdula: Sam Burns (25-1, FanDuel) — I really like all the top guys this week in a top-heavy field, and I see a pretty good case for Burns. But out of the top five favorites before a tier drop in the betting market, Burns is just the least likely name I find myself getting to this week.
Stewart: Sam Burns (25-1, FanDuel) — Sam Burns is coming off two straight top-six results at TPC Scottsdale. A birdie ballpark, this course and environment are a perfect fit for Burns. Sam is ranked first in the field for Birdie or Better percentage and fifth in SG/putting and strokes gained on par 4s. Burns makes sense for this venue and enjoys a good crowd. So why fade him? Sam Burns has not won since May 2022. Since that Charles Schwab win over Scottie Scheffler, Burns has 30 finishes between 10th and 50th in 54 starts with 10 missed cuts. That’s why.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Corey Conners (33-1, BetRivers) — The Canadian disappointed big time in his past two starts, a MC at the Sony Open, where he’s had great success, then a T-65 at Pebble Beach last week. Conners has failed to finish in the top 10 in five starts at TPC Scottsdale.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sepp Straka (33-1, BetMGM) — Love Sepp but this will mark his fifth start in the last six weeks, and he was in serious contention in two of those events. Feels like that’s got to catch up to him eventually, and it seems like it already did on Sunday at Pebble.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (16-1, DraftKings) — While Hideki Matsuyama has had an excellent start to the 2025 season, I unfortunately believe that he may be trending in the wrong direction. Matsuyama lost strokes in both ball-striking categories last week at Pebble Beach, and the putter appears to be trending in the wrong direction as well.
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WM Phoenix Open picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Akshay Bhatia (-125) over Davis Thompson (Bet365) — Akshay’s aggressiveness off the tee and ability to get hot with his approach play makes him a great fit for TPC Scottsdale. I really like him coming off some good flashes last week. Davis Thompson finished near the bottom at Pebble, it seems like he’s struggling, so I’ll happily fade him here.
Mayo: Min Woo Lee (+105) over Max Greyserman (Coolbet) — I like Min Woo in the outright market, while understanding the downside, but Greyserman is now on his fourth straight week on the course and withdrew with a hand injury over the weekend at Pebble. He may not be 100 percent, and we’re getting +105 to fade him with a good player.
Gdula: Billy Horschel (-115) over Min Woo Lee (FanDuel) — These two have very similar short games (though Horschel’s is better), and the recent iron play really favors Horschel, too. The only advantage for Min Woo is the driver right now.
Stewart: Kurt Kitayama (-125) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — Jordan Spieth didn’t look great at the AT&T. Granted, Wyndham Clark looked worse, but I’m still not sold on Spieth’s confidence heading into this event. Jordan was testing putters and looked a little lost at times throughout the tournament with his ball-striking. Who could blame him, he just had surgery on his lead wrist. Conversely, Kurt Kitayama has gained over five strokes T2G (on average) against the field in his past five starts. He also had an eighth place a year ago at the WMPO, so Kurt can close this H2H.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (-114) over Davis Thompson (Circa) — Following our swing coach on this one (one of the leading coaches on tour, by the way). I’ll be sprinkling on Akshay outright as well.
Powers, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (+100) over Sepp Straka (DraftKings) — Straka is red hot, yes, but I’m banking on some potential fatigue for the big Austrian. Helps that I’m getting even money on Byeong Hun An, who should be well-rested, having played just once since the Hawaii Swing. An also has great history at TPC Scottsdale, with four top-23 finishes in six career starts.
Lack: Justin Thomas (-115) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) — Despite the disappointment of last week, I am still bullish on a big season from Justin Thomas in 2025. He has recorded seven top-20 finishes in a row at TPC Scottsdale, and it is even a golf course where he has recorded some impressive putting performances, which is usually the weakest aspect of his game.
Matchup Results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (McIlroy (+162) over Scheffler); Gdula: 1 for 1 (T. Kim (-105) over McNealy); Lack: 1 for 1 (Hoge (+100) over English); Swing coach: PUSH (Fleetwood (-164) over Hovland); Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 4-1-0 (up 3.15 units); Hennessey: 3-2-0 (up 1.16 units); Swing coach: 1-0-1 (up 0.91 units); Stewart: 2-3-0 (down 1.02 units); Gdula: 2-3-0 (down 1.22 units); Mayo: 1-4-0 (down 3 units); Lack: 1-4-0 (down 3 units)
Swing coach: Sam Stevens (+550, FanDuel) — This kid is an absolute ball-striker who is still going under the radar despite a T-2 at Torrey Pines and a nice finish at Pebble. His off-the-tee prowess will lead to some chances, where his improved iron play can capitalize.
Mayo: Charley Hoffman (+750, Bet365) — Charley got himself into the Sunday final group a few weeks back. Didn’t work out. He followed that up with a T25 at the Farmer a week later. Both times he was let down by a frigid flat stick. But his ball striking has been excellent, even dating back to the beginning of the swing season. He lost in a playoff a year ago here to Nick Taylor and has actually gained on these greens five of the past six years. If he gains again with the putter this time around and matches it with the rest of his consistent play, you may have yourself a Sunday runner beyond triple digits on the betting board once again.
Gdula: Corey Conners (+400, FanDuel) — TPC Scottsdale tends to reward the best putters of the best ball-strikers on a given week. Conners should be one of the best ball-strikers this week, and his underlying putting splits are a lot better than perception.
Stewart: Justin Thomas (+150, Bet365) — In 10 starts at the WM Phoenix Open, Justin Thomas has four top 10s and a 68.3 scoring average. Thomas has all the tools to win this week. In the end, a backdoor top 10 will have everyone wondering what happened. Not us, we saw the putter let us down last week and even with all that talent, I believe we need the 10 places to cash on JT in the desert.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (+400, FanDuel) — Benny An has two top-10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale in the past, and he’s been playing some great golf over a longer sample size. He’s got the distance off the tee to give himself chances, and he’s one of the best players from 150-175 yards (18th) and 175-200 (20th), two buckets where over 50 percent of approaches will come from, over the past 32 rounds, per RickRunGood.com.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (+240, FanDuel) — Burns has burned a lot of folks in the gambling community who have been on him outright already in 2025, but he’s still had some solid results. Now he gets to come to a familiar place, TPC Scottsdale, where he’s gone T-3, T-6 and T-22 in his past three trips.
Lack: K.H. Lee (+1600, DraftKings) — I could not believe this number on K.H. Lee, who has already won twice on the Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC Craig Ranch, and he also has a runner-up finish at TPC Scottsdale. Lee is also coming off a top-10 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. Don’t be surprised if Lee contends at another Weiskopf-designed TPC course.
Top-10 results from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 2 for 5 (up 11.33 units); Lack: 3 for 5 (up 8.4 units); Gdula: 2 for 5 (up 3 units); Tour coach: 0 for 2 (down 2 units); Stewart: 1 for 5 (down 2.25 units); Hennessey: 0 for 5 (down 5 units); Powers: 0 for 5 (down 5 units)
D Squared Productions false Public TPC Scottsdale: Stadium Scottsdale, AZ 3.9 17 Panelists
- Best In State
The famed home of the WM Phoenix Open boasts probably the most well-known stadium hole in golf: the par-3 16th. Tiger Woods’ hole-in-one in 1997 put it on the map for casual fans, who now flock to Scottsdale during Super Bowl week. The layout has architectural merit, too, with its risk-and-reward-filled back nine. Tom Weiskopf, who designed the course with Jay Morrish, has overseen renovations of the course—making tweaks to please the tour player and resort guest alike. Explore our full review About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports .
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
