Wind and slower greens at Royal Portrush will favour those who adapt.
[PHOTOS: Getty Images]
To win an Open, you must embrace the unique test of golf. With unpredictable weather, players who manage their ball-striking and mental game throughout the week are the most successful. For these reasons, it’s often the toughest major to predict a winner, as many longshot players have won The Open by playing creative shots and keeping a cool head.
There isn’t any shot-by-shot data for Royal Portrush, as the last Open Championship there was in 2019, so to uncover what skills are required to win there, I analysed the stats of recent Open Championships. With the help of Arccos Pro Insights, here are the three skills required to win The Open.
Flighted shots: With current tour venues, playing in heavy winds is less common these days. At Royal Portrush in July, however, we can expect winds to gust at more than 20 miles per hour at some point throughout the week, requiring players to have command over their trajectory. Being able to hit the ball low and work it both ways is the key. Who does that suit? I looked at the players who have performed best during the past two years on tour in winds of 15mph or more. Joaquín Niemann, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Shane Lowry top that list.
Accurate drives: In 2019, accuracy off the tee played a huge role. Some of the holes at Royal Portrush are quite narrow, and thick rough lines the fairways. Lowry, who won by six shots, drove it great that week, and an unusual percentage of players at the top of the leaderboard were straight hitters, like Tommy Fleetwood and Lee Westwood. Six years later, some of the most accurate players off the tee in the field are Collin Morikawa, Aaron Rai and Daniel Berger.
Adjusting quickly: Tour players are used to putting on greens faster than 12 on the Stimpmeter. At The Open, due to the high winds and the type of grass, the greens will be much slower, about 10-11 on the Stimpmeter. Players will not only need to hit putts harder than normal on Royal Portrush’s large greens, but slower greens break less than faster ones, so matching the slower speed with the line will take an adjustment. I looked at who in the past five years on tour has putted best on greens slower than 11 on the Stimpmeter, and Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick are near the top, all gaining more than 0.7 shots per round on the field on those greens.
Players I like at Portrush
Fleetwood and Lowry excel in these categories, and as Europeans who grew up on links courses, they have years of experience in these conditions. Lowry, of course, won there in 2019, and Fleetwood was runner-up. Fleetwood is long overdue for a major, and this course couldn’t set up better for him, as long as the putter behaves. I also like Niemann and Neergaard-Petersen as they are great players in the wind, and both are having nice seasons so far. Don’t know Neergaard-Petersen too well yet? He’s one of the top players on the DP World Tour; remember what I said about longshots at The Open!
Edoardo Molinari, a former US Amateur champion, Ryder Cupper and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s chief data strategist.
