[Photo: Scott Taetsch/PGA of America]
B.F. Skinner, the American psychologist and behaviourist, once said “the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour”. Therefore, if you’re trying to predict who will play well at the PGA Championship this week, you might be best served looking back.
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The event returns to the Aronimink Golf Club, in eastern Philadelphia, for the first time in 64 years. While performance data from that PGA Championship, won by Gary Player, is understandably limited, there is recent data from the course that could serve to suggest some trends.
In 2011 and 2012 Aronimink hosted the AT&T National tournament on the PGA Tour. The event, originally at Congressional Country Club, had to be moved as it prepared for the 2011 US Open, so this year’s PGA Championship host stepped in for two years. Positioned between the US Open and Open Championship, it hosted strong fields both years.
Photo: Scott Taetsch/PGA of America
Seven years later, the tour returned to Aronimink again, this time for the BMW Championship, the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Thanks to DataGolf, we’re able to look at the details of those three events, how the course played and the players that performed best.
Here’s what it suggests.
Putting is the most important skill
While it may be naive to look at results from an event and note that the players high on the leaderboard putted well, it does seem a key factor in performing at Aronimink.
In 2018, Keegan Bradley led the BMW Championship field in strokes gained/putting (+7.2) and won the tournament. In 2011, Nick Watney led the field in strokes gained/putting (+10.6) and won. In 2012, Ryan Moore was first in strokes gained/putting (+8.6) and missed winning by a shot to Justin Rose, who gained more than seven shots on the greens and ranked fourth.
Nick Watney celebrates on the 18th green at Aronimink after winning the AT&T National event in 2011. [Photo: Carlos M. Saavedra]
Again, that may seem obvious. The players that won holed a lot of putts. That is common at most tournaments. However, if you look deeper, you’ll find it is a notable indictor of success at Aronimink.
Take the most recent event, the 2018 BMW Championship. The top four players on the leaderboard that week were Bradley, Rose, Xander Schauffele and Billy Horschel. They were all among the top 10 best putters that week. Of the 44 shots by which they collectively beat the field average, more than half (23.1) came on the greens.
In fact, eight players in the top 10 on the leaderboard that week also finished inside the top 10 in strokes gained/putting.
When Watney won the AT&T National in 2011, the top five players on the leaderboard were among the top 15 best putters. None ranked inside the top 10 in driving distance and only one featured in the top 25 in strokes gained/approach, typically a strong measure of success at majors.
Approach play is (oddly) unimportant
To that last point above, the data suggests that Aronimink doesn’t reward strong iron play.
In 2010, when Rose and Moore battled for the AT&T National title, neither ranked inside the top 40 in strokes gained/approach. Furthermore, two of the six best players in that category actually missed the cut that week (Shaun Micheel and Greg Owen).
We know that was a similar storyline in 2011, and again in 2018, the data suggests victory isn’t found in approach. Rose actually lost strokes in approach (-0.2 per round) that week and still found himself in a playoff.
Justin Rose during the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink. He lost on the first hole of a playoff to Keegan Bradley. [Photo: Stan Badz/PGA Tour]
With greens that average about 8,300 square feet, known for their sweeping movement and size, it appears that players can easily find the putting surfaces but it’s how quickly they can hole out when they do that correlates to success.
In 2018, players hit greens 11 percent more often than at a typical PGA Tour event. Yes, it was very soft that week due to heavy rain in the lead up to the tournament, but that same tendency appeared in both 2011 and 2012 when weather wasn’t an issue.
Practise wedges, not mid-irons
One of the most interesting metrics that DataGolf tracks at courses is the relative volume of approach shots based on distance. At this year’s Masters for example, players hit noticeably fewer shots from 75 to 100 yards, 100 to 125 yards and 125 to 150 yards, versus a regular PGA Tour course. The year’s first major is usually a battle of mid and long irons, especially given the challenging contours and speeds of the greens.
If you look at Aromimink, it’s the opposite. In all three tour events it has hosted, players hit fewer shots from 150 to 200 yards and considerably more shots from 100 to 150 yards.
The layout, tipping out at 7,200 yards (6,584 metres), isn’t long by modern standards, especially for a major championship. It is well bunkered – with more than double the number of bunkers this year than it had before the 2017 renovation by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner – but it isn’t long. Players can take on doglegs, pick and choose which bunkers to carry off the tee and find themselves with more wedges and less mid and long irons than they might be used to.
Remember also, this week will play as a par 70. There are only two par 5s. Those players that typically have an edge with distance, often going into par 5s with long irons, could find that advantage limited at Aronimink.
That is what the past tells us. How the future and the 108th PGA Championship will play out is ahead of us. Will those trends and tendencies help someone claim the Wanamaker Trophy? I’ll be watching to find out – with spreadsheets open.
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