Did somebody say playoffs? Before everyone’s attention shifts to football and the Ryder Cup, the PGA Tour will dish out a bunch of cash after this three-week run that will culminate in the Tour Championship at East Lake. First, we have the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, which has been a mainstay host on the PGA Tour since the 1980s when it opened.
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Similar to the tour’s elite, our Golf Digest betting panel has printed cash all year—going up a combined 30.12 units in top-10 bets alone … even counting one of our experts losing a unit every week on top-10 bets (he shall remain nameless but you can do a little digging below). We’ve also hit 11 outright winners this year collectively, and we’re ready to hit some more bets this week. Our panel is comprised of a tour swing coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Southwind, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship:
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Scottie Scheffler (+300, BetMGM) — I know the value isn’t there, but if you’re asking me who’s going to win a stroke play event at this point, it’d be disingenuous not to answer with Scottie Scheffler’s name. TPC Southwind puts a premium on controlling your distances into these greens, and nobody is in the class of Scheffler. The other part of that too is, I just feel like the rest of the field thinks he’s way better than them. They all feel like they’re playing for second, and they are.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Xander Schauffele (18-1, FanDuel) — With no Rory, I was expecting the Xander number to be wildly unfair. But it’s quite reasonable with just Scottie above him on the betting board—especially considering the names directly below him. It’s been a long time coming for Xander, who hasn’t won in over a year now, but the stat trends are there. He keeps getting close.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Viktor Hovland (35-1, FanDuel) — Hovland won at a similar setup at Copperhead earlier this year, and his iron play is second only to Scheffler the last six months. Irons matter a ton here at TPC Southwind, and Hovland’s putting splits suggest more putts should fall for him soon.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1, DraftKings) — Fitzpatrick now has four consecutive top-eight finishes. Throw in a fifth place and a T-18 in his past three starts in Memphis, and we see a perfect convergence of form and fit. Among all the favorites under 30-1, Matt can challenge Scheffler given his current form. With 18 newly renovated green surfaces at TPC Southwind, expect some erratic approach bounces. Fitz ranks fifth in strokes gained/around the green, which is my key reason why Matt will find a way to win in Memphis.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Russell Henley (30-1, FanDuel) — Henley’s back to the form we saw earlier in the year with four consecutive top-10 finishes. TPC Southwind is a great fit for his game being one of the most accurate players off the tee, an elite approach player and a much-improved short game.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1, DraftKings) — Fitzy is hotter than a two-dollar pistol, stacking up five top-eight finishes in his last eight starts dating back to the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. It sure seems like the peak is coming soon, so long as the putter continues cooperating.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Sam Burns (40-1, FanDuel) — Sam Burns has been playing some excellent golf this season with numerous close calls at the U.S. Open and RBC Canadian Open. Now he returns to a golf course where he has already recorded two top-five finishes, and he should be more than comfortable with a return to Bermudagrass, where he has been one of the best putters in the field over a healthy sample size.
Past results: We have another winner! Our Anonymous Tour Coach yet again correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler to win, this time at the Open Championship. That’s his fifth (!) winner this season. As a group, we now have 11 individual victories in 2025.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (above) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Chris Kirk (100-1, FanDuel) — TPC Southwind sets up great for someone who can hit a draw, and Scott Hamilton has done a fantastic job helping Chris Kirk continue to hit it great. He’s coming off a fifth place last week and a T-14 at Minnesota. His ball-striking ceiling can keep up with the elites as we’ve seen with him winning at the Sentry TOC.
Mayo: JJ Spaun (50-1, FanDuel) — This was Spaun’s tournament the year Zalatoris won. Playing in the final group, a 78 Sunday dropped him outside the top 40. Returning to TPC Southwind as a major champion, he’s primed for revenge. Possessing one of the best distance/accuracy combos in the field, Spaun simply needs to keep his ball-striking in tact while running a hot putter.
Gdula: Daniel Berger (50-1, FanDuel) — Daniel Berger has won twice in his career at TPC Southwind and has two more top-five results, too. The number is lengthening due to weak finishes, but that’s in spite of great ball-striking numbers. It’s just that the short game that’s cooling off. Underlying data indicates better putting soon, though.
Stewart: Sepp Straka (45-1, BetMGM) — Sepp Straka will spike on approach this week. The Austrian is excellent at finding the short grass off the tee, and that’s a bonus at TPC Southwind. The fairways are Zoysiagrass, and Sepp’s approach game has a great history on this firm turf. Speaking of grass, Sepp’s first win came at PGA National—another difficult ball-striking test covered in Bermudagrass rough and small target greens. Toss in a career year and a playoff loss at the FedEx St. Jude in 2022, and I love the two-win Straka attacking this target-rich track.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (66-1, BetMGM) — The Irishman has disappointed since the U.S. Open but still rates out as a top-10 player in accuracy and approach play over the past 24 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. And at these odds, it’s an easy bet to get behind.
Powers, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (90-1, FanDuel) — An out-of-character approach performance saw Glover miss the cut at Wyndham, but now he’s double the price at a place he’s won at. I don’t expect him to lose with his irons again and, as we’ve seen from his swamp a**, he’s not afraid of battling it out in the August Memphis heat.
Lack: Daniel Berger (50-1, FanDuel) — Daniel Berger has been a fairways and greens machine all season, and now he returns to a venue where he already has two career victories and two other top-five finishes. Berger boasts a tremendous record in the Southeast, on water-heavy courses, and Bermudagrass greens. TPC Southwind is the perfect venue for him to get back into the winner’s circle.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Patrick Cantlay (28-1, BetMGM) — This might be taking the easy way out, but you might be tempted with his past FedEx Cup performances and motivation to make the Ryder Cup team. That motivation should’ve been there all year, and it has translated in nothing. He missed the cut in the final three majors of the year. That tells me all I need to know about the state of his game.
Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (20-1, BetRivers) — I kinda hope he wins, just so I don’t have to hear about how he never wins again. But he won’t. And he’s third on the odds board.
Gdula: Aaron Rai (30-1, FanDuel) — There are eight names at 30-1 or shorter, and Rai stands out as easily the lowest-ceiling player of this tranche of favorites, so I can’t get there this week.
Stewart: Justin Thomas (25-1, FanDuel) — Justin Thomas is fourth in the world rankings and fifth in the FedEx Cup rankings. Yet for every top-10 finish in 2025 (he has seven), there are just as many results outside the top 20 (eight). When Thomas can manage his game off the tee, he plays well. Make the driver landing areas narrow, and Justin just cannot score and keep up with a signature field. Such is the case in Memphis. To compound the concerns, Thomas has a terrible putting history at Southwind. Put it all together, and I’ll pass on the nearby Kentucky native.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (28-1, BetMGM) — These odds are crazy town based on all the holes we’ve seen in his game this year.
Powers, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (30-1, FanDuel) — Rai gained an absurd amount of strokes with his irons last week and is now priced among the favorites. That will be a hard performance to replicate and he hasn’t been consistent enough in 2025 to back him at this number.
Lack: Justin Thomas (25-1, FanDuel) — While Justin Thomas has certainly found success at TPC Southwind in the past, I just don’t trust his driving ability at the moment. Thomas is coming off a middling finish at the Open Championship, where he lost over four strokes off the tee, and he has lost strokes to the field in driving accuracy in his past 10 starts. This price is inflated based on past performance, and I’m not sold we are getting that version of Thomas right now.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Harry Hall (+100) over JJ Spaun (Bet365) — I’ll keep riding Harry Hall, whose ball-striking has been terrific all year.
Mayo: Harris English (-110) over Keegan Bradley (Coolbet) — Keegan’s been terrible lately, and TPC Southwind has long been a Harris English track. English has three top-four finishes in three of the past five major/signature events and has gained on ball-striking in seven of his past eight starts.
Gdula: Harris English (-110) over Keegan Bradley (FanDuel) — English and Bradley have extremely similar overall numbers over the past six months. The key difference is that English’s putter is better, and Bradley is relying a lot on his scrambling and wedge play.
Stewart: Ben Griffin (+100) over Corey Conners (BetMGM) — What else can we say about Ben Griffin? Just when I thought he would take a week off, he finished 11th at the Wyndham. That’s seven top-15 results in his past nine starts! Accuracy OTT, Bermudagrass putting and proximity to the pin … Griffin checks all the boxes. Corey Conners is another dart thrower. Even though he finished top 10 at The Open, I worry about Corey’s ability to go low with the leaders in Memphis. Conners is ranked 46th in the field for Birdie or Better percentage and 55th in bogey avoidance.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (-120) over Keegan Bradley (Bet365) — This is mostly a fade of Keegan’s course history at TPC Southwind, where he hasn’t finished better than T-43 over the past three years. Ben Griffin isn’t quite the player he was a month ago, but he’s still fourth in my model this week, so I think his floor is a lot higher.
Powers, Golf Digest: Matt Fitzpatrick (+105) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings) — Will roll with my pick to win over a guy who continues to command too much respect on the betting board in this All-English duel.
Lack: Russell Henley (-120) over Justin Thomas (DraftKings) — Russell Henley continues to play some outstanding golf, and I see no reason to hop off the hot hand on a golf course that fits Henley’s skill-set to a tee. TPC Southwind accentuates accuracy off the tee, short to middle iron play, and Bermuda putting. This is Russell Henley’s music if I’ve ever seen it, and I trust his ability to keep the ball in play off the tee far more than Justin Thomas.
Matchup Results from the Wyndham Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Jacob Bridgeman (+105) over Taylor Moore), Everyone else: 0 for 1.
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 14-12-2 (up 2.21 units); Lack: 15-14-1 (up 0.16 units); Powers: 15-15-1 (down 0.45 units); Hennessey: 15-15-1 (down 1.39 units); Mayo: 12-16-2 (down 3.33 units); Stewart: 13-17-1 (down 4.55 units); Gdula: 11-18-2 (down 8.31 units)
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Tommy Fleetwood (+200, FanDuel) — The time will come for Tommy Fleetwood, but until he gets over the finish line, this is the place to bet him.
Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (+260, FanDuel) — TPC Southwind is a tough course off the tee. Players can ruin their entire tournament with a few wayward tee balls. Chipping, however, is quite easy… relative to other PGA Tour events. That doesn’t mean Ludvig won’t chip himself out of another event, but if he can avoid it, he’s one of the few with plus distance who should keep himself clean with the driver.
Gdula: Justin Rose (+600, FanDuel) — Mathematically speaking, Justin Rose has a top-16 ceiling among this field over the last 50 rounds, and he’s played pretty well at TPC Southwind in his career—with three top-25 results in five starts.
Stewart: Russell Henley (+230, FanDuel) — It’s now four straight top 10s dating back to Russell Henley’s start at the Memorial. It just so happens that we are going for our fifth consecutive top 10 winning ticket in this column! I like the symmetry here and Henley’s accuracy. Russell has gained an average of 9.5 strokes on the field over those last four starts. Accuracy is needed everywhere at TPC Southwind, and Henley has you covered. Take one of the tour’s best ball-strikers, and let’s cash again!
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+350, FanDuel) — I’ll ride the hot hand with Cameron Young whose confidence has to be sky high after last week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (+400, Caesars Sportsbook) — Toyed with Clark in the longshot section but his driver cannot be trusted right now. That’s scary stuff at this golf course but he’s hitting his irons so well and is gaining plenty of much-needed confidence. Hopefully that’s enough to continue to get himself in the mix.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (+280, DraftKings) — Hideki Matsuyama is the defending champion of this event, and he is beginning to play some much better golf. Matsuyama is coming off a top-20 finish at the Wyndham Championship, where he gained over five strokes on approach, good for his third top-20 finish in a row. I expect the former Masters champion to keep his foot on the gas at a familiar venue.
Top-10 results from the Wyndham Championship: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Matt Fitzpatrick +295), Everyone else: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 10 for 31 (up 15.3 units); Tour coach: 7 for 28 (up 13.3 units); Lack: 9 for 31 (up 12.3 units); Stewart: 11 for 31 (up 10.55 units); Mayo: 5 for 31 (up 4.67 units); Hennessey: 6 for 30 (up 5 units); Powers: 0 for 31 (down 31 units)
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About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, senior managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
