Australian Golf Digest’s international panel of experts cast their eyes over the Tournament of Champions field to predict which PGA Tour star will emerge victorious at Kapalua’s Plantation course.
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Xander Schauffele ($13 odds) — It’s amazing how low-pressure this week is for these guys—you have to be here to truly grasp that. Xander thrives in these conditions … and on a big course where he can get away with some misses, he’s in a happy place at Kapalua.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Jordan Spieth ($21) — Nothing in his recent form suggests this is a good bet, but Spieth is a former champion at this course, he knows the greens here well, and if one of the skills this week will be draining long putts, he has to be on the list. Betting elite golfers when their prices drift has been profitable over the years (Cantlay at Memorial, DJ at Travelers)—that is, if Spieth is actually back to being elite, he’s that guy.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Patrick Cantlay ($15) — Take a look back at the winners of this event. They’re all studs. There’s a little more to it than that, but I want to be starting my card with an anchor such as Cantlay. He does everything, and it is a benefit to have some distance, great irons, bunker play, and putting at Kapalua. Cantlay checks off everything on that list.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Jordan Spieth — I’m certainly worried that Spieth struggled with his approach play to close 2021, but this number is simply too long for the 12-time PGA Tour winner. The key to winning on the tour is upside and Spieth is full of it. In 2021, he gained five-plus strokes on the field in 13.4 percent of his rounds, the most of any golfer, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. There’s no better place for Spieth to get right than Kapalua, where he’s earned three top-three finishes in his four career starts.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest deputy managing editor: Patrick Cantlay — Even after his insane run to end 2021, Cantlay still has worse odds than Xander? I’m offended for Cantlay. Par-4 scoring is huge at Kapalua with the extra par 4 on this par 73, and Cantlay leads the field in par-4 scoring over the past 50 rounds, per Fantasy National. He’s also second in strokes gained/putting over a longer sample size. We see guys parlay a hot fall into a win at Kapalua, and Cantlay has a great chance to do that.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Jordan Spieth — Always nice when you are on the same guy as Rick Gehman and Pat Mayo, who made a similar case for Jordy. Upside, upside, upside. While he didn’t close out the season strong, I’m not sure there was much motivation for him to do so after exerting all that energy at the Open Championship. Now, he gets to start fresh at Kapalua, a course that engages his golfing brain in all the right ways, as evidenced by his strong history there.
Lee Alldrick, Bryson DeChambeau ($13) — DeChambeau comes into this event ranked fourth in the FanShare Sports’ course-suitability ranking. He also ranks eighth in the field this week for SG/total over the past two years. His recent form is also good, too, ranking second in the field this week for SG/total over the past three months.
Past results: Golf Digest’s betting panel had another strong season in 2020-’21, correctly predicting 14 winners in the last 28 events of the year. We’re already off to a hot start in the new season, too, with Rick Gehman hitting Sam Burns (16-1) at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Viktor Hovland (19-1) at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.
