The U.S. Open at Shinnecock. That just sounds right.
It’s been eight crazy years in the sport of professional golf, so it feels good to return to a place where times were once simpler and the only drama involved a guy hitting a moving ball and another guy saying the USGA “lost the golf course” as if a bomb went off. Those were the days.
The top of the sport looks much different now, with a guy named Scheffler the dominant figure. But the once dominant figure, Brooks Koepka, is back and in form, though a hand injury has popped up at the worst possible time. Rory McIlroy is going for his second major of the year, Jordan Spieth his first in nearly a decade, and the local guys, Cameron Young and Chris Gotterup, still searching for their first.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
RELATED: U.S. Open Power Rankings: The entire field ranked at Shinnecock Hills
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 U.S. Open:
U.S. Open picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250, DraftKings) — Already a U.S. Open champion, Fitzpatrick has worked his way up to No. 4 in the world rankings with three victories over the past few months. His ball-striking has been immaculate, and his ability to navigate wind and firm conditions is among the world’s best, a lot of which has to do with his now-elite chipping. Fitz currently ranks sixth on tour in SG/around-the-green this season. And he remains weirdly undervalued compared to his peers on the odds board.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Xander Schauffele (+1850, DraftKings) — In nine U.S. Open starts, Xander Schauffele has seven top 10s and has not had a finish worse than T-14. A two-time major champion, Schauffele’s best career record comes at our national championship. It started in 2017 with a T-5 finish in his first U.S. Open start. Xander had to qualify to get in that year. Third place at the Players, ninth at the Masters, and seventh at the PGA Championship, Schauffele has the best record of any favorite in the field at the season’s biggest events. Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Russell Henley (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Henley’s accuracy is a true weapon at a spot like this, where angles matter just as much as raw ‘fairways hit’ data. Henley finished third in my Rabbit Hole model this week, finishing closer to Scottie and Rory than he did to the Xanders and Tommys lurking behind him. Having some experience here certainly helps (tied for the FRL here in 2018), and you have to believe Henley is feeling good about his game after his dominant finishing stretch at Colonial a few weeks ago. Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Si Woo Kim (40-1, BetMGM) — Si Woo’s playing nearly as well as anyone at the top half of the field with four top-10 finishes in his last six starts, including the runner-up at the CJ Cup and a T-10 at Memorial. In ultra windy conditions, he’s fourth in SG/total over the last 36 rounds in winds of over 18 mph, per Betspertsgolf.com’s Rabbit Hole. You have to look past him not contending in majors, but if you trust his accuracy off the tee, stellar form and wind play, I think he’s live. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250, DraftKings) — Fitzy put together B- efforts at the Masters and the PGA and still top 20’d in both. I believe we get the A game this week, as he’s coming off his best SG/approach week since April and his short game remains as strong as ever. Plus, he wants it windy, crispy and hard. He’s going to get his wish, and while everybody else mentally and physically checks out, Fitz will lock in even more. Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250, DraftKings) — Matt Fitzpatrick is obviously a former U.S. Open champion who also performed well at Shinnecock in 2018. The Englishman is coming off a runner-up in Canada where he gained strokes in all four major categories, and he has developed into one of the most well-rounded players on tour this season. Past results: We have our FOURTH winner of 2026, and our first stretch of back-to-back winners. Ryan Noonan and Stephen Hennessey both correctly picked Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1250, giving Noonan his third win of 2026 (and his second in a row with the Fitzpatrick bros. at 12-1 at Zurich) and Hennessey his second, his first coming at the Farmers (Justin Rose 60-1). Noonan also nailed Nico Echavarria’s victory at the Cognizant at 60-1. Hop on the train while you can. Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
U.S. Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Chris Gotterup (45-1, FanDuel) — Two wins this year, four over the past 12 months, and now we get a course that can showcase the best of his abilities. The fairways are wide enough to accommodate his prodigious driver (sixth in Driving Distance; 12th in SG/off-the-tee), and he enters having gained on approach in 12 of his past 13 starts. His chipping can always be an issue, yet he was able to use his creativity from just off the green in his first go-round at Augusta National (T-24) this year, as well as at last year’s Scottish Open (Win) and Open Championship (T-3). And, with expected gusty conditions this week, this Jersey boy has proven he can win when the winds start to rise. You see, my theory is he plays so well in the wind because his gold chain works as an anchor to keep him steady. Stewart: Patrick Reed (47-1, DraftKings) — Patrick Reed has come out and stated that Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is his favorite course on the continent. Fourth place in the 2018 U.S. Open, Reed has two wins and five top 10s in eight starts this year (!). Patrick has proven he will be prepared when he plays. A much improved ball striker, Reed is a better player than he was in 2018. Take that new full swing precision and complement it with a top five short game in the field, and Reed will really catch your attention. Noonan: Hideki Matsuyama (74-1, DraftKings) — I can’t believe that you can find 74-1 on Matsuyama to win any tournament, let alone one that highlights some of his best traits. Shinnecock plays harder as you get closer to the hole, and that’s exactly how I’d describe Matsuyama’s game. He’ll benefit from wide fairways and clubbing down a bit, but Matsuyama still possesses a top-tier ceiling that few in this week’s field can match.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Smith (135-1, DraftKings) — Even with losing strokes off the tee at Aronimink, the Aussie finished in the top 10 thanks to his elite touch around the greens. He’ll have a little more room to navigate off the tee with these wide fairways, and his short game is still one of the best in the world. With the improvements on approach play with his new instructor, this number’s too good to pass up. Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (58-1, DraftKings) — I’m surprised I haven’t seen more JT love given he’s usually a wind darling. Not to mention the fact he’s just been damn good since the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he MC’d. In nine starts since, he hasn’t missed a cut, including five finishes of T-19 or better, two of those top 10s at the Players and the PGA. It’s been a rather impressive return to form post injury. Lack: Patrick Reed (46-1, DraftKings) — I’ve been singing Patrick Reed’s praises for weeks at this golf course, and my time spent at Shinnecock this week only confirmed my beliefs that the former Masters champion will be incredibly prepared for this test. He has even called it his favorite golf course. RELATED: U.S. Open 2026: Where does Phil Mickelson go from here?
U.S. Open picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (22-1, FanDuel) — Nothing against his consistency, but we’re looking for winners here. And guys with double his odds have a better chance to come out on top. Stewart: Ludvig Aberg (22-1, FanDuel) — Shinnecock Hills takes away Ludvig Åberg’s superpower, the driver. A super high ball hitter, Åberg will have to change his approach in order to contend. Combined with a knack for loose scoring in major championships, I feel Ludvig has more to learn before he wins a major championship. Especially one that requires incredible short game scoring and a low trajectory. Noonan: Bryson DeChambeau (28-1, BetRivers) — For all the same reasons that Bryson is an auto-fade for me at Augusta. He’s just not consistent enough for me to trust, and a third-straight MC at a major wouldn’t surprise me. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Bryson DeChambeau (28-1, BetRivers) — Maybe the new driver clicks right away and he can excel around these wild putting surfaces like he did at Pinehurst, but there are too many question marks and not enough major form in 2026 for me to bet him at this number. Powers, Golf Digest: J.B. Holmes (4500-1, DraftKings) — Holmes is a proven PGA Tour winner and this price is somewhat disrespectful. Almost makes me want to take a little nibble, but I’m going to have to pass, respectfully. Lack: Bryson DeChambeau (28-1, BetRivers) — I understand buying the dip on Bryson DeChambeau’s talent this week, but I just don’t think that Shinnecock is a great course fit for him given his recent middle iron and short game struggles. Bryson’s length will be neutralized here, and he will have to play a much craftier game than he usually prefers.
U.S. Open picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (-104) over Min Woo Lee (Coolbet) — Kitayama has started to pile up a résumé of consistent finishes in strong-field events while beginning to turn his putter around. He’s posted five straight top-25 finishes, all in majors or Signature Events, and is one of the few non-elite names to sit inside the top 30 in both driving and approach over the past three months. After starting the year with a bunch of spike approach rounds, Min Woo has reverted back to his usual self: driving it great, putting well, and praying to break even with the field with his irons. Not the mold you want at Shinnecock. Stewart: Lucas Herbert (-110) over Jackson Suber (DraftKings) — Jackson Suber will be a hot name on the odds board based on his run at the RBC Canadian Open. Even though Suber’s ball-striking is superb, he’s playing in his just his second U.S. Open with weaknesses on and around the green. I have concerns. Lucas Herbert arrives in great form, qualifying for the national championship, and he thrives in windy conditions. Remember, his lone PGA Tour win came in windy Bermuda. Noonan: Patrick Reed (-111) over Justin Rose (Bet365) — Rosey is a killer in these big events, but so is Patrick Reed, who apparently is only going to play in majors now. Reed can roll out of bed and gain on and around the greens, and this year has been no different. We know that’s on the menu this week, so that baseline skill, which shows up every time he’s in Augusta as well, will be vital to his success. The 2025 season showed noticeable improvements on approach for Reed, and those strides have stuck and have gotten even better in 2026. Only Aaron Rai gained more strokes on approach at the PGA Championship than Patrick Reed (+1.5 per round on average), who finished in a tie for 10th. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Chris Gotterup (-108) over Brooks Koepka (DraftKings) — The nerve injury with Koepka is a big concern, even if it was a precaution to WD last weekend. Even aside from the injury, Gotterup has gained more than 32 strokes over the last four majors played. This should be an Open-like test this week at Shinnecock, which we saw Gotterup excel in last year.
RELATED: The latest on Brooks Koepka’s injury Powers, Golf Digest: Matt Fitzpatrick (-175) over Bryson DeChambeau (Bet365) — This one feels so easy it’s scary, and part of me worries Bryson randomly pops off when everyone’s doubting him (see: last year at Royal Portrush). But sometimes it is this easy. Fitzy’s been one of the best in the world this year and he loves the tough conditions. DeChambeau has mightily disappointed and has never done a great job of accounting for the conditions. I rarely bet big minus money, but this is a no-brainer. Lack: Xander Schauffele (-125) over Cameron Young (Southpoint) — Xander Schauffele has been an absolute model of consistency at U.S. Opens, and he finished top-10 here in 2018. Cameron Young, on the other hand, has been battling an apparent wrist injury, and hasn’t looked right since his win at the Cadillac Championship. Matchup Results from the RBC Canadian Open: Powers: 1 for 1 (Mitchell (-102) over Rai); Noonan: 1 for 1 (Suber (-103) over Schmid); Stewart: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1 Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Stewart: 14-4-2 (up 8.31 units); Powers: 15-7-0 (up 6.84 units); Mayo: 10-11-1 (down 0.36 units); Lack: 11-10-1 (down 1.31 units); Noonan: 9-10-3 (down 2.28 units); Hennessey: 8-13-1 (down 5.91 units)
U.S. Open picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Alex Fitzpatrick (+760, DraftKings) — No player from down the board has been more consistently solid with his driving and irons than mini-Fitz since he joined the tour. Couple that with his extensive experience in windy, links-style golf, and you have a surprise on your hands if he can manage his short game. Since winning the Zurich with his brother, he’s played in three Signature Events, finishing inside the top 10 in all three. Stewart: Cameron Smith (+1000, FanDuel) — When this event goes sideways, and it will, Cameron Smith will be your best option. Under the guidance of a proven major championship-winning coach, Smith takes his talent as the world’s best scrambler and is improving his ball-striking. Seventh place at Aronimink last month at the PGA Championship, watch the 2022 Open Champion use his wedge and putter to creatively contend in another major championship. Noonan: Collin Morikawa (+430, FanDuel) — I’m targeting golfers who are elite at controlling their golf ball, because precision is the most important skill this week. You get extra credit if you’ve had success at Augusta National or any of the recent Open Championship venues, because I believe those are the best comp courses to Shinnecock for all the reasons stated above. Morikawa’s worst Masters finish in the past six years is a T-18 back in 2021, the year he won the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s GC. Collin Morikawa was moving around TPC Toronto last week with a bounce in his step, looking a lot like that golfer who headed into TPC Sawgrass as one of the favorites after his electric start to the 2026 season. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Reed (+350, DraftKings) — He’s in the early wave Thursday, which is great with the wind forecasted on Day 1. He finished top 10 at Aronimink and top 10 last time we were at Shinnecock. His short game should have him near the top of the leader board again. Powers, Golf Digest: Maverick McNealy (+620, DraftKings) — Maybe my favorite play of the week. The datagolf boys have McNealy ranked 14th in the world, 23 spots higher than his OWGR ranking of 37th. That just shows the statistical quality of golf this guy has played for well over a year now. He’s also slowly started to get comfortable at the majors, having made seven of his last eight cuts, with back-to-back T-18s. This week, he gets his first career major top 10. Lack: Tommy Fleetwood (+230, DraftKings) — Everyone will remember Tommy Fleetwood’s Sunday 63 in 2018 at Shinnecock, but he has actually improved leaps and bounds as a player in the last eight years, and is entering this week in great form. He has not proven a strong ability to close tournaments throughout his career, but the Englishman is a perfect top-10 bet this week.
Top-10 results from the RBC Canadian Open: Lack: 1 for 1 (Bud Cauley +500); Everybody else: 0 for 1 Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 7 for 22 (up 25.15 units); Powers: 6 for 22 (up 7.25 units); Lack: 5 for 22 (up 0.3 units); Stewart: 5 for 22 (down 0.15 units); Noonan: 5 for 22 (down 2.5 units); Hennessey: 4 for 22 (down 5.6 units) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_. Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
