The stats explain the formula to win the circuit’s season-ending event.
The DP World Tour Championship is the culmination of the circuit’s 42-tournament season played across 26 countries. After the event, the season-long points winner takes the Race to Dubai title. In recent years, the final standings have become even more consequential, with the top-10 finishers who don’t already have a PGA Tour card earning membership on the American tour. The DP World Tour Championship is played each year at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, a course that the stats show rewards three important skills.
Distance off the tee: Length is a must to win at Jumeirah for a few reasons. First, all of the par 5s are reachable for the longer hitters, so they can capitalise on these opportunities better than shorter players who can’t reach the greens in two. Second, there are many deep bunkers that line the fairways, many of which have high lips that can be extremely penal. Players with plenty of length don’t have to worry about these bunkers, though, since they can carry many of them. That is one of the reasons why Rory McIlroy [above] often plays so well around this course. Finally, most of the fairways are very generous, and the stats show that there isn’t much of a penalty for missing them. Bomb away.
Approaches outside 225 yards: At Jumeirah, long approaches are where players can really separate themselves. The fourth hole is a long par 3 that usually plays as the most difficult hole on the course. Great long-iron players, like Viktor Hovland and Tommy Fleetwood [above], are rewarded here. While the par 5s are all reachable, two of them have water in play on the second shot, so it’s vital that players are precise with these long approaches. The stats show a significant disparity in scoring between players who take advantage of these shots and holes. Players who rank near the top of the field in approaches outside 225 yards rarely finish outside the top five at week’s end.
Putting from seven to 13 feet: Short putting is one of the best predictors of good play at Jumeirah, as there is a high correlation between strong performances in this area and the final position. Scoring is usually quite low, and players will have a lot of makeable birdie putts. Converting these putts is the differentiator between those who have a good week and those who contend to win. Look for excellent putters, like Tyrrell Hatton [above] and Matt Fitzpatrick, to play well.
The hole to watch: The 18th
The final hole at Jumeirah is a reachable par 5 but is full of danger with a creek winding in the landing zone and around the green. There is a split fairway, and with favourable conditions, the longer players could try to go to the right to make the second shot much easier. It is a dangerous, 300-yard carry with trees to the right and water to the left. Historically, players make birdie or better on this hole 31 percent of the time, but 19 percent of the time they make bogey or worse. The latter is an extremely high number for a par 5, which shows how much of a risk-reward opportunity the closing hole is.
Edoardo Molinari, a former US Amateur champion and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s chief data strategist.
