Augusta National reveals her secrets through statistics.
When the players I advise ask me what’s the key to winning at Augusta National, I always turn to three key statistics: approach play from 150 to 200 yards, chipping from the fairway and mid-range putting between 15 and 30 feet. After studying the trends over recent years at the Masters and with the help of Arccos Pro Insights, here’s why these three areas are essential to success.
Approach play: At Augusta National, good approach play, especially from 150 to 200 yards, is rewarded the most. Almost 20 percent of shots gained overall by players that finish inside the top 20 are gained in this area, which is much higher than other courses. This is because the result between a good shot and a bad shot at Augusta is more drastic than at other courses.
Take the approach shot on the ninth hole, for example. When the pin is on the left side of the green, if you miss it in the left bunker, you have less than a 20-percent chance to get it up and down, while if you miss it right, you have more than an 80-percent chance to get it up and down. The difference between missing the green left or right is about 0.6 shots – and that’s just on one shot on one day. Players need to miss it in the right spots to play well at Augusta.
Chipping from the fairway: There is very little rough around most greens at Augusta National, so when you miss a green, you will often chip from the fairway cut. The data shows that players have three to four times more shots from the fairway around the greens at Augusta compared to other courses. A chip from the fairway is the most common short-game shot on every hole except No.12. For context, on the PGA Tour, players average less than two short game shots from the fairway each round, while at Augusta players will probably have more than five each round. Great chippers excel at Augusta because those players control the spin and trajectory of these shots around the treacherous greens.
Mid-range putting: Since the greens at Augusta National are sloped severely and the pins are often tucked, players will end up with a lot of putts from mid-range. Holing a few of these 15 to 30 footers is key to playing well. Last year, nine out of the top 10 players on the leaderboard gained shots against the field on the greens, and eight of those players gained shots putting from 15 to 30 feet. There is a high correlation between how many shots players gain on the field from mid-range putting and where they finish.
Players I like at Augusta
Aside from Scottie Scheffler, I look at Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood as likely contenders. Collin and Tommy can overcome their slight distance deficit with their elite approach play. Also, if Justin Thomas [above] has a good week on the greens, look out. JT’s ball-striking has been great this year, and over the past few years he has been one of the best approach players on the PGA Tour.
Edoardo Molinari, a former US Amateur champion and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s chief data strategist.
Photos: J.D. Cuban/Andrew Redington/David CannoN/getty images
