Have you failed to watch any golf this year, but can’t resist the sweet siren song of the Masters, and need a quick catch-up? Have you watched literally every minute from Pebble to Puerto Rico, but you’re sick of reading player guides that run the risk of giving you too much useful information? Are you a player’s agent looking for a reason to yell at a journalist?
Then you, my friend, are in the right place. Other people have done the hard work of analysis, and now, a day before the Masters, I’m here to give you the lowdown on the 41 guys who might actually win this thing, based on the vibes they’re giving off in 2025 so far … and maybe a fact or two. This is pure intuition, gut over brain, and more accurate than any so-called “expert” you’ll find on the golf internet. At least until they start playing.
These are in order of how likely I think they are to win, starting with the least likely and working up to our No. 1, Jose Maria Olazabal. (No, it’s not actually him.)
41. Rory McIlroy 
Maddie Meyer
Good Vibes: On a practice day at the Players this year, he yanked a heckler’s phone right out of his hands. It was thrilling.
Bad Vibes: Despite rumors to the contrary, he apparently did not throw the phone in the water. Cowardly, weak.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: NO. He’s having an incredible 2025, has won twice at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass, and looks on paper like the guy with the best chance to win a green jacket. Professional Rory-knowers like me understand exactly what this means: He’s doomed. Don’t spend a second believing otherwise. Hey! Hey! I see you believing! Stop that!
40. Sam Burns
Good Vibes: [Struggling for anything…] Uhhhhhh … he plays fast?
Bad Vibes: Some years you’re peaking, some years you’re troughing, and after a rough 2025 got rougher with three missed cuts, Burns is rooting around in the muck.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: You’re not going to find an Augusta truffle in that muck. I’ll stop saying pig-related things now. But no
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Good Vibes: In some ways, he’s the ultimate vibes guy, if you measure vibes by staring around and looking cool in a distinctly emotionless way.
Bad Vibes: No longer seems to play professional golf.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: Nah.
38. Phil Mickelson 
Patrick Smith
Good Vibes: The man is staying in the news! Whether he’s calling Fred Couples “classless,” sending Twitter congrats to John Daly’s kid, or touting Joaquin Niemann as the best player in the world, he won’t go quietly into his mid-50s.
Bad Vibes: The man is staying in the news! Whether he’s calling Fred Couples “classless,” sending Twitter congrats to John Daly’s kid, or touting Joaquin Niemann as the best player in the world, he won’t go quietly into his mid-50s.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: No, but he’s playing half-decent golf on LIV (he even finished third at one event) so it does feel like there’s going to be a moment on Saturday or early Sunday where he comes out of nowhere to light up the crowd, a la 2023.
37. Tony Finau
Good Vibes: Big-time family man, happy-go-lucky, great smile, finally figured out how to win.
Bad Vibes: Getting sued by everyone he has ever known.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Not really. Since winning the Mexican Open in ’23 he’s watched his world ranking slip slidin’ away, and like Burns, he feels very much off peak.
36. Adam Scott 
Maddie Meyer
Good Vibes: Such a handsome gentleman!
Bad Vibes: There are no bad vibes around Adam Scott. He is simultaneously the professional golfer your wife is most likely to fall in love with, but also the least likely to ruin your life by taking advantage of it. Absolute class act. (I have forgiven my wife, we’re doing fine.)
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I wish I could say yes. But while his form is actually really solid for a guy who is now 44, he’s been pretty mediocre at Augusta since his last top-10 in 2017, and with no top-10s in 2025 so far I can not realistically entertain this fantasy.
35. Will Zalatoris
Good Vibes: Hey, he’s back! With a full season under his belt since returning from back surgery, he’s now at the “I never miss a cut” stage, having gone 11-for-11 since last August. Still gives off those pleasant Owen Wilson/West Coast vibes.
Bad Vibes: He’s also in his “I never make a top 10” phase.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: The only thing keeping me from an outright “impossible” is that he turns it on in majors, with seven top-10s in 13 tries. But still … impossible.
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Good Vibes: It’s all good vibes all the time with Billy, especially at TGL where he did a better job than every other player at pretending to care, to the point that I think he actually cared. He’s the realest man on tour, forever walking that tightrope between innocent and wise.
Bad Vibes: Has admitted in the past that he’s a “perfectionist” and that it holds him back in majors, which is why his two major top-10s last year were his first in more than a decade. There’s something just slightly high-strung about him at the biggies.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: At Augusta? No. But I’m a Horschel diehard, and I think he’s going to bag a major in the next three years.
33. Sahith Theegala
Good Vibes: There’s a lot to like here, but his goofy dad tops the list. If Theegala comes off as somewhat quiet and studious—he’s a seriously good chess player—it’s likely because he grew up with a dad that never stopped talking.
Bad Vibes: He’s fallen off this year, with only one finish inside the top 35.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Forget it. Lack of form dooms him.
32. Tyrrell Hatton 
Warren Little
Good Vibes: You have to appreciate a really mad golfer, and Hatton is the maddest. On my worst, most frustrating days on the course, I could not approach the level of rage he can summon if he misses a green by a foot. You can’t teach that … it’s just raw, angry talent.
Bad Vibes: It occurred to me when I saw his name in the odds sheet that I literally have not heard a peep about him since going to LIV. The standings tell me he’s just middling along over there, which seems like a bad sign. Also, last year he parted ways with his hilarious caddie Mick, who once told me that Hatton losing in the WGC-Match Play was “cutting into his drinking time.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Beats me! But I’m going to say “no” based on the fact that he can’t crack the top 25 “lock zone” on LIV.
31. Sungjae Im
Good Vibes: Never seems to leave the golf course. I’m pretty sure he sleeps in the bunkers and stores dry goods in the holes.
Bad Vibes: It’s been an oddly inconsistent start to 2025, with three of his usual top-10s but also a couple missed cuts in the past month.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: It hit me the other day: This is golf’s Cal Ripken Jr. A true iron man, plays every week, always steady, All-Star caliber for long stretches, but he’s only ever going to win one major at most. And it’s not going to be this one.
30. Jordan Spieth 
Patrick Smith
Good Vibes: Our old pal is just as insane and chaotic as ever, and his year so far is a blur of three-hole stretches where he makes albatross, quadruple bogey, has a fascinating but neurotic 25-minute conversation with Michael Greller, and then almost falls in the water before making an absurd par. Watching Spieth is the best entertainment bang for your buck in all of sport.
Bad Vibes: It doesn’t seem like he can win anymore.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I am sorry to tell you that he does not, but at least we can look forward to him holing out for eagle from the branch of a pine tree at some point Saturday morning.
29. Tom Kim
Good Vibes: I know it was last year, but he still turns every Presidents Cup into appointment viewing pretty much on his own.
Bad Vibes: I love the guy stubbornly, but I’m getting a sense that more and more fans and players find him annoying, and there have been a few slow-play moments that made it worse.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: It’s gotta be a “no” just on form. He hasn’t been higher than T-36 since Pebble, and nothing about his brief history at Augusta screams that this is the place for an aberration.
28. Xander Schauffele 
Maddie Meyer
Good Vibes: The man is on top of the world, having gone from “potential Westwood” to “American alpha dog” in the space of a few months last summer. It’s good to be Xander right now. I swear he even has a new strut, but I’m afraid to ask him about it.
Bad Vibes: Intercostal strain to start the year, and if you’ve ever had that, you know how horrible it is for a seemingly minor injury. When it hurts to breathe, you’re in for a bad time.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Nope. The injury means we’re still in “wait and see” mode as to whether he’ll continue to kick ass or do that thing where you’re king of the sport and then disappear for a couple years. But Augusta is too early to climb the throne again.
27. Cam Smith
Good Vibes: He remains Australia’s answer to your hilarious Alabama redneck uncle who fishes off the highway overpass surrounded by a trail of empties.
Bad Vibes: You know how some people said that everyone who went to LIV was giving up on real golf, that they’d turn complacent and rusty and lose what made them special? It wasn’t true for most of the elite players who went. For Cam Smith? It seems at least a little true.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: No, but the horses-for-courses vibes are so strong that he could pull off a sneaky top ten.
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Good Vibes: Just won the Valero! Lefties are great at Augusta! He’s FROM Georgia!
Bad Vibes: He’s actually pretty rough at the Masters, hasn’t sniffed a weekend in three years, and the last guy to win the Valero and the Masters in the same year was Arnold Palmer in 1962.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, but only if the field is reduced to just him and Andrew Novak.
25. Sergio Garcia 
Stephen Denton
Good Vibes: Won LIV Hong Kong, top three overall in the League in 2025 and there’s a good deal of chatter that Luke Donald might bring him on board for his veteran presence at the Ryder Cup in September.
Bad Vibes: Everything else. Has anybody squandered more goodwill over a career? This is a guy who once made a fried chicken joke about Tiger Woods, and as we look back on 25 years of Sergio, that’s barely in the top 10 of odd behaviors. I guarantee some patron will get tossed for heckling Sergio this week.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I can’t see it. I get that he won on LIV, but for a guy who responded well to major pressure exactly once in his life to go in cold and survive a weekend gauntlet at Augusta seems wildly unlikely.
24. Aaron Rai
Good Vibes: The two black gloves. Ignoramuses and haters will call the double rain glove look “bad vibes,” but it proves they have no culture or sophistication, unlike me, a guy who also wears two black rain gloves because I sweat a lot.
Bad Vibes: Rai is one of those European late bloomers who you think is about 23 years old, but it turns out he’s 30. There’s nothing wrong with being 30—I once tried it myself—but it sucks out the phenom energy you thought he had.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Surprisingly, kinda! He’s maintained the 20-something World Ranking he earned after winning the Wyndham last year, and it’s been nine years since our last unexpected mid-level English Masters champ, so we’ll begin our longshot contenders here.
23. Justin Rose
Good Vibes: As usual, he was an extremely good subject on “Full Swing,” better by far than many other players who seem to have a more dynamic personality on paper. There are hidden depths here that go beyond the “uptight upper class Brit” demeanor, and he keeps burnishing his rep well into his mid-40s.
Bad Vibes: His near-miss at the Open last year felt like a last gasp, a sign from the universe that he wasn’t going to get the trophy he most coveted.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: His results have been uneven, but what distinguishes him from a guy with a similar age/legacy profile like Adam Scott is that he keeps putting up these unexpected top-10s (Bay Hill, Pebble), and he’s still such a beast on hard courses. If conditions are just a little rocky at Augusta, he’s dangerous.
22. Keegan Bradley 
J.D. Cuban
Good Vibes: It’s been a year of swagger for the next Ryder Cup captain, he keeps turning in great results, and he had a couple of stellar moments at the Presidents Cup. Plus, on “Full Swing,” he swore a lot and promised to kick Europe’s ass at Bethpage.
Bad Vibes: Kinda backed off the promise once it went public. If we’re going to do a hostile Ryder Cup, let’s DO a hostile Ryder Cup! Throw the heckler’s phone of discord into the lake of strife!
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I think so. It’s not likely, but we live in an age of chaos and entropy, and nothing would be more chaotic and entropic than Bradley making the Ryder Cup team and throwing the captaincy into disarray, which means our sick sick universe gives him a puncher’s chance.
21. Jason Day
Good Vibes: Arguably, the clothes.
Bad Vibes: Arguably, the clothes.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: The fact that he keeps putting up these top-10s and making cuts (none missed since the U.S. Open last year), coupled with his past success at Augusta, is the kind of thing where the more you look at it, the more you start to become convinced he’s got a last run in him. That said, he could also withdraw after seven holes with a rare disease called “Welsh intestine.” It’s all in play.
20. Robert MacIntyre
Good Vibes: While putting up a bunch of top-10s, he’s nobly trying to save nice Scottish golf courses from closing.
Bad Vibes: I still think about his fight with the drones at the ’24 Canadian Open once a month. The fact that you can’t find footage of it online only intrigues me more. What if he was right?
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Do we still believe in the idea that lefties have an advantage at Augusta? Then, sure, you can squint your eyes and imagine him getting it done.
19. Bryson DeChambeau 
Ben Walton
Good Vibes: He’s a breezy, almost corny YouTube guy now, a far cry from the loathed know-it-all Brooks Koepka almost bullied into submission a few years ago. And like most YouTube guys, the vibe is always happy, cheery.
Bad Vibes: Not even beating Phil Mickelson on LIV this year.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Hard to say yes, based on recent form, but hard to say no considering his length. Last year’s opening-round 65 was the first time we really saw him look threatening at Augusta, but we also know he was on the verge of a ridiculous major run. A green jacket seems unlikely, but I can’t in good conscience rule out a heater.
18. Corey Conners/17. Sepp Straka
Good Vibes: These men, either Canadian by birth or Canadian by fusion of American and Austrian, would probably help you change your tire. And maybe as the world gets worse, “sensible” is coming back into fashion.
Bad Vibes: They seem like they wear Crocs everywhere.
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Oh yeah. As in, a distressingly realistic chance if you’re somebody who has to write about the winner.
16. Tommy Fleetwood
Good Vibes: You can’t go wrong as a mild-mannered long-haired Jesus-looking dude from the Merseyside. Everyone loves him.
Bad Vibes: But do we believe in him? Deep down, do we?
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: He’s ticking a lot of boxes, good play, not a missed cut in sight since Troon, hovering around No. 10 in the world … so yes. But it also seems like he’s destined to be the spiritual successor to Lee Westwood, and hold honors like “most money made on the PGA Tour without winning” ($25 million and counting right now!)
15. Brooks Koepka 
Andrew Redington
Good Vibes: Just finished second in a LIV event, will be playing at one of only four events he has ever cared about.
Bad Vibes: Seems to be constantly telling Fred Couples that he wants off LIV, and when asked to publicly affirm his support for the league, gives inspiring quotes like, “I’ve got a contract obligation out here to fulfill, and then we’ll see what happens.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Absolutely possible. Koepka is like a cicada, where you don’t hear from him for years, but when he emerges from the ground and molts, he’s all you can think about for months at a time. Maybe it’s a cicada year.
14. Min Woo Lee
Good Vibes: He’s got his “let him cook” catch phrase, seems fun on social media, has a sister with a better career so far but seems cool about it, and just won his first tour event.
Bad Vibes: Despite the win, there’s still the slighhttttt sense that he’s a frivolous Zoomer, and that Logan Roy will fix him with a stern look and declare that he’s not a serious person.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: You ever notice that Aussies always do well at the Masters? Even if they don’t win, guys like Jason Day and Cam Smith spend a few years getting close, and I bet Min Wood joins that group this year.
13. Wyndham Clark
Good Vibes: The spiritual stuff. He’s Shivas Irons, if Shivas almost joined LIV.
Bad Vibes: The weird divot fiasco at Bay Hill, the “interesting” withdrawal at the Players. There’s a vague sense that he’s going through something at the moment.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: The thing is, no matter how Clark struggles here and there, he can never run away from the fact that he’s a truly elite player who fell on hard times for a while, and that remains true despite all the little fluctuations. Even at Augusta, you’re never going to get worse than “maybe” for him, and coming off a T-5 at Houston, it’s better than maybe.
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Good Vibes: Everyone who plays on LIV, but especially Phil Mickelson, thinks he’s the greatest golfer who has ever held a club.
Bad Vibes: Nobody has any idea how to evaluate that, other than the strong sense that it’s not correct.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Sure, he’s a great golfer who wins his fair share on LIV. However, he also has the exact same number of top-15 finishes in majors as me. But unlike me—unfairly barred from majors simply for hitting the ground one foot before the ball on 50 percent of my swings—he’s had 20 chances. Let’s see him find one top-10 before we take this further.
11. Patrick Cantlay
Good Vibes: Despite everything, the “Patty Ice” moniker still stands up because he has a preternatural ability to come up clutch in big moments in team events.
Bad Vibes: I bet he’d be one of those bosses who would make you keep a minute-by-minute log of your activity.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I guess, if for no other reason than his unshakable consistency. There was a point at the end of 2021 when it seemed like he might be on the trajectory that his friend Xander is on now, and while that hasn’t panned out, he’s still good enough that he’s going to run into a major opportunity once in a while, like he did at Pinehurst last year. But can he actually close?
10. Akshay Bhatia 
J.D. Cuban
Good Vibes: The rail-thin-hipster-with-big-glasses look shouldn’t work in the context of professional golf, but Bhatia is really pulling it off.
Bad Vibes: Hard to find anything; he’s on the rise, and you can tell his profile is increasing with his world ranking because they put him with Rory and Ludvig on Thursday and Friday.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I love his chances to be in the mix Sunday, though he probably doesn’t have the major experience to seal the deal quite yet.
9. Shane Lowry
Good Vibes: He’s your fun Irish friend who isn’t afraid of a few pints, a good chat or instigating a fight between you and the entire American Ryder Cup team.
Bad Vibes: Rory might murder him if he wins a green jacket first.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: The man just keeps putting up good results, even though it feels like he should be in the “tour mascot” phase of his career. There’s a lot of steel in Lowry, and he has a better chance than you think.
8. Viktor Hovland 
Andrew Redington
Good Vibes: Hey, the man won a tournament after an eternity in the wilderness! Also, he gives interviews where he says things like, “what is the deal with all the aliens?”
Bad Vibes: Somehow, after winning the Valspar, he got even more self-deprecating, insisting even in his press conference and on social media afterward that he’s not confident over the ball and was shocked to win. Also, he changes coaches at the drop of a hat, and the only thing more likely than failure to make him change is success.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, and if he wins, he’s going to take off the green jacket after Scheffler drapes it over his shoulders, say, “I’m nobody, I don’t deserve this, I hate golf,” and burn it right in Butler Cabin.
7. Justin Thomas
Good Vibes: Despite his high profile, Thomas has somehow earned the “sneaky good” distinction, mostly as a result of a short slump that has evolved into excellent play that falls just shy of elite.
Bad Vibes: Possibly sold his soul to the devil to win the 2022 PGA at Southern Hill, with a price of never winning again.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I think so. He’s one of the best players in the field. The doubt comes with that nagging question—is Augusta really the place to break through after a three-year win drought? A quiet top-10 might be the more sensible call here.
6. Jon Rahm 
Andrew Redington
Good Vibes: Continues to quietly excel in LIV.
Bad Vibes: This whole trailer, where he’s reallllly trying to sell his passion for a moribund league.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Definitely, because whatever you think about his move to LIV (for me? depressing), he’s an unbelievable competitor. What we’ve seen lately from guys like DeChambeau and Koepka, though, is that even when they’re in championship form, they need a close call at majors (Koepka losing at Augusta two years ago, DeChambeau losing at Valhalla last year) to shake off the competitive cobwebs. If you told me Rahm was definitely going to win a major this year, I wouldn’t pick the first one.
5. Hideki Matsuyama
Good Vibes: His caddie famously bowed to Augusta when he won in 2021, and Augusta loves flattery, so you have to feel Hideki’s getting rewarded for that sooner or later.
Bad Vibes: Two straight missed cuts, victim of one of the weirdest stories of 2024 not involving Scottie Scheffler when he got robbed in an airport.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Oh yeah. I don’t care about the missed cuts—he’s been red-hot for a while, set a tour record by shooting 35 under in Hawaii, and likes Augusta. Gimme all of that you got.
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Good Vibes: He’s back to being the best iron player in the game, and keeps almost winning.
Bad Vibes: After finishing second at Bay Hill, he left without speaking to the media, which wasn’t that big a deal in this day and age, but then made it worse a week later by saying he didn’t “owe” anybody anything, and then doubling down after McGinley and Chamblee and more than a few others told him it made him look entitled. It feels like he’s getting bad advice from somewhere.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, but the “almost winning” thing still looks like an obstacle. He’s absolutely going to win again, and soon, but it feels like he has to prove it to himself in a normal tour event before he nabs his third major.
3. Russell Henley 
David Cannon
Good Vibes: Turned into the Scottie Whisperer at the Presidents Cup, won at Bay Hill, going bald in kind of a cool, retro way, which is extremely relatable.
Bad Vibes: Like Akshay, he’s bad-vibe free. Everything’s coming up Henley these days.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I know a bunch of you will be mad about Henley being here, but yes, he does. He’s playing great golf, showcasing some clutch behavior, and he’s always at least decent at Augusta. This man is having a career renaissance, and I’m buying.
2. Ludvig Aberg 
Michael Reaves
Good Vibes: Young, good-looking, natural winner, seems to be peaking, and has the entire world in the palm of hands. He also seems nice.
Bad Vibes: I am jealous of all that stuff.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes. In fact, if you take a close look at Aberg’s cool Swedish demeanor, and then take an even closer look at the world in 2025, he might be the snowball in hell.
1. Scottie Scheffler 
Stephen Denton
Good Vibes: Just finished second at the Houston Open, seems to be charging back into form.
Bad Vibes: Has spent all year being slightly grumpy with the press and agonizing over finishing sixth instead of first. And if you thought weird things had stopped happening to him after getting arrested at the PGA, nope, the biggest storyline of his year so far is that he hurt himself making ravioli.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Even his putting numbers are good this year. I think he has transcended ravioli-gate, although I fully expect he’ll re-injure himself trying to place the green jacket on his own shoulders in Butler Cabin.
• • •
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A brief history of Masters prize money payouts
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The Champions Dinner Tell-All, from those inside the room
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This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
