Welp, Scottie Scheffler hasn’t withdrawn from the Charles Schwab Challenge yet and there’s no reason to indicate he might. So we might as well just pack it in now, nobody else is winning.
Or, we can dream. We can dream that Scheffler expended so much mental and physical energy last week at Quail Hollow that we could catch him sleeping this week at Colonial. Does anyone ever catch Scottie sleeping? We’re about to find out.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Colonial Country Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge:
Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Harris English (35-1, FanDuel) — Coming off a super-hot 65 at the PGA Championship, I like the fact he wasn’t necessarily grinding in “contention” for four rounds, so he should be more mentally fresh than some of the others. He’s a shot-maker and a great thinker, which isn’t necessarily quantifiable, but I can testify based on spending time with him. Colonial requires sound strategy. Justin Parsons has done a remarkable job coaching him—and the results: a win and three top-12 finishes in his past four starts, speak for themselves.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Akshay Bhatia (70-1, FanDuel) — He won in Texas last year and despite a recent slump, he’s spiked enough with this approach to believe he can match up the accuracy, irons, putting trifecta. You’ll rarely find this much talent this far down the betting board.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Daniel Berger (22-1, FanDuel) — Daniel Berger will be popular this week, but he’s got the third-best ceiling in the field over his past 50 rounds and has the right game right now (accuracy, irons, scrambling and putting) to get a second win at Colonial.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Daniel Berger (25-1, Bet365) — I’m just not betting on Scottie Scheffler at +250, or whatever the closing number is. He will most likely win and become an even bigger favorite at Muirfield Village next week. Instead, let’s go with Daniel Berger. Berger was once ranked 12th in the OWGR. He beat a world-class field at Colonial in 2020 after the COVID restart. The ball-striking is there, and the putter is on fire about half the time. A quick return to a comfortable place will make Berger’s comeback complete at Colonial.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Daniel Berger (25-1, Bet365) — I bet Berger at Harbour Town, so I’d be silly not to bet him here. Shorter, positional courses are his jam with his great accuracy off the tee and precision approach play. He won the first event out of covid at Colonial in 2020. It’d be fitting if Berger pays off his resurgence with a win back here in Texas.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: J.T. Poston (45-1, FanDuel) — I’m going to regret typing this, but J.T. Poston has not missed a cut since the Sony Open. Add in his Fall win at Shriners, which he backed up with a top five at RSM, and the man has just played really solid golf for an extended period now. After a short poor run of approach play, he finally found the irons again at Quail Hollow, resulting in a career best T-5 finish, the ultimate confidence boost. It’s too soon to start talking Ryder Cup, but another win would certainly put him in the discussion. Colonial suits his game nicely, the Postman finishing 12th here a year ago and 10th back in 2020.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Daniel Berger (25-1, Bet365) — Daniel Berger has been playing incredibly consistent golf all season, and now he returns to a golf course where he’s won. Berger is coming off a performance at Quail Hollow where he gained over four strokes off the tee and four strokes on approach, and I expect him to carry that momentum with him to Texas.
Past results: We have another (easy) winner, with Andy Lack cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s PGA Championship victory at +500. That’s Andy’s first win of 2025 and gives our panel nine individual victories in 2025.
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Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Keith Mitchell (55-1, FanDuel) — Before an MC at the PGA Championship, he had three top 10s and two 18ths in his past five starts. I saw a video of him working with Scott Hamilton the past few weeks, and it’s the best I’ve seen Keith’s swing look. These odds are worth taking a shot on.
Mayo: Nico Echavarria (125-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — It’s a perfect time for Nico to hit a course which prioritizes approach and putting over chipping. Nico’s gained over 4.2 strokes on approach the past two starts and has seen his accuracy rebound in those starts after a slightly downturns after the West Coast swing. He’s one of the few players with the irons/putting upside to challenge anyone in this field if it lines up. We saw him out run Morikawa and Xander in Japan late last season and has a pair of scones since at courses with a similar profile to Colonial (Sony & RSM).
Gdula: Brian Harman (55-1, FanDuel) — Harman has had some upside in recent weeks, namely a win at the Valero Texas Open and a T-3 at the RBC Heritage. Since 2012, Harman has three top-10s and no finishes worse than T-31 when making the cut (10 of 11 times) at Colonial.
Stewart: J.T. Poston (45-1, FanDuel) — Poston is streaky. When he won the 2022 John Deere Classic, he was the runner-up the week before at the Travelers. With three wins under his belt, we know he can finish strong on Sunday afternoons. Currently gaining an average of +4.5 strokes with the flatstick over his last three starts, Poston can deliver us a win even with Scottie in the field. JT finished 12th at Colonial last year after the renovation, and following a fifth at the PGA, he is poised to maintain his strong performance at another familiar venue like Colonial.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Eric Cole (100-1, FanDuel) — Any course that minimizes the number of drivers off the tee and emphasizes short and middle irons and putting is a course I have interest in Cole. Cole is one of the best from 150-200 yards, ranking 20th per the Betsperts Rabbit Hole.
Powers, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (80-1, BetMGM) — Glover’s 37th-place result at the PGA looks ho hum but the tee-to-green play was anything but. The Glove gained over six strokes T2G, a much-needed course correction after a poor run in that department between the Masters and the Truist. Think we see the version of him that went third-eighth at Players and Valspar this week at Colonial, where he has two top-12s in his last three appearances.
Lack: Lucas Glover (80-1, BetMGM) — Lucas Glover remains one of the best wedge players in this field, and controlling short irons into small, firm targets remains the name of the game at Colonial. I feel that I am getting incredible betting value here on one of the top-five approach players in the field, who already boasts strong course history at Colonial and a winning resume on other short, positional golf courses.
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Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Scottie Scheffler (+210, BetMGM) — This is probably the only time I’ll type this in the next few years: I’m fading Scheffler. He was in a dogfight over the last 36 holes, and that takes a lot out of you. This would truly prove he’s a robot if he comes out and dominates for a third straight tournament.
Mayo: Jordan Spieth (22-1, FanDuel) — Nahhhhhhhhhhh. Not as the second favorite in the field.
Gdula: Jordan Spieth (22-1, FanDuel) — Spieth’s game is super volatile (as usual) and now heads to a course where he has played really well historically (but has been MC and T-37 in the past two years). That history seems to have his number a bit too short.
Stewart: Jordan Spieth (22-1, FanDuel) — We all want Jordan Spieth to return. The issue is that his approach game cannot be relied upon. At Colonial, you need to be precise when attacking these green complexes. Until Jordan can achieve much greater consistency with his iron play, I’m off the Spieth ship.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, BetRivers) — Hideki had a rare MC at the PGA, which is not a great sign to the state of his game. Accuracy is paramount at Colonial, and Hideki is 133rd in this field in driving accuracy, making him an easy fade for me.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (22-1, FanDuel) — His latest career grand slam bid went out with a whimper and he didn’t do anything particularly well, or anything that would give you hope. He’s been great here in his career, so he’s probably good for a top 20, but I just don’t see how you can expect him to win right now.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, BetRivers) — Hideki Matsuyama is coming off a disappointing missed cut at the PGA Championship where he lost strokes in both ball-striking categories. Now Hideki travels to a golf course that he has only seen once in 2014 and where his accuracy off the tee and sub-par recent driving will be put to the test.
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Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Tom Hoge (-111) over Akshay Bhatia (Bet365) — The Hoge/Colonial story has been told a lot every year, but he has played here a ton after his years at TCU. He was playing great golf coming into the Truist but has cooled off, thus I think the decent odds. The familiarity with Colonial will be crucial in only the second year post-renovation. He won’t be doing the same kind of homework others will be.
Mayo: Emiliano Grillo (-105) over Max Greyserman (Coolbet) — Grillo’s a former champ and has actually started to recapture his old elite ball-striking the past two months. Greyserman? He’s going the other way.
Gdula: Davis Thompson (-120) over Davis Riley (FanDuel) — Thompson has been two-thirds of a shot per round better than Riley over the last six months overall and 1.35 shots per round better tee to green, per datagolf.
Stewart: Harris English (-115) over Si Woo Kim (DraftKings) — Fresh off a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow, we’re riding with Harris English on a tough track in Texas. Eleventh at Truist and 12th at the Masters, English has been cruising lately on approach and with the putter. Si Woo Kim also finished inside the top 10 at the PGA. The problem is, he gained most of his strokes with the flatstick. We all know Kim can’t continue that gain (+6.8). Harry is very good on tough tracks, and Colonial will test these guys.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (-140) over Robert MacIntyre (DraftKings) — There’s a big mismatch with driving distance here, with Rai ranking fourth in this field for driving accuracy, whereas MacIntyre is 82nd. That’s enough for me to lay the juice.
Powers, Golf Digest: J.T. Poston (-110) over J.J. Spaun (DraftKings) — Spaun’s been sneaky OK over the last two weeks but has a pretty poor record at Colonial, which can be a tough place to figure out. Poston is my pick to win, a virtual lock to make the cut (definitely not going to come back to bite me) and has had some past success at this venue.
Lack: Daniel Berger (-140) over Hideki Matsuyama (BetOnline) — This is an easy one, as I am getting my pick to win as a short favorite over my fade. I trust Berger’s comfortability on this golf course far more than Matsuyama, and his accuracy off the tee has been far more reliable as well.
Matchup Results from the PGA Championship: Tour coach: 1 for 1 (Reed (-120) over Day); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Berger (-125) over Im); Powers: 1 for 1 (M.W. Lee (-105) over Day); Lack: 1 for 1 (Pendrith (+105) over Novak); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Spieth (-120) over Koepka); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Reed (-110) over Day); Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 12-3-2 (up 7.31 units); Hennessey: 12-7-1 (up 3.93 units); Powers: 12-8-0 (up 3.9 units); Lack: 10-8-1 (up 1.84 units); Stewart: 9-11-0 (down 2.45 units); Gdula: 7-12-1 (down 5.99 units); Mayo: 6-13-0 (down 7.14 units)
Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Brian Harman (+450, FanDuel) — Love this one. Won in Texas at the Valero and had a T-3 at Harbour Town, which is a great comp course to Colonial—requiring you to think your way around rather than bombing it. He’s a shotmaker and should thrive here.
Mayo: Daniel Berger (+240, BetRivers) — Accuracy, approach, and short game have been as good as any non-Scottie player in the field. Strangely, the putter has lapsed over his past three starts. That was after gaining in seven straight dating back to late January. He’s won here against a stronger field in the past and he’s one of the few players at the top of the the board who excels at keeping out of danger.
Gdula: JT Poston (+400, FanDuel) — Fresh off a T-5 at the PGA Championship, Poston has flashed at Colonial in the past when he’s played well (three top-20 finishes with a lot of missed cuts). The accuracy, irons and putting are on point right now.
Stewart: Harry Hall (+600, FanDuel) — Harry Hall has gained over seven strokes against the field in his past two starts. Hall has two keys: around the green play and putting. Throw in a very positive week at the PGA on approach, and he finished inside the top 20. I love this trend, and combined with a top-three finish at Colonial in 2023, I’m taking Hall and 10 places.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (+320, FanDuel) — Rai ranks fifth in my Betsperts model this week for his strengths in accuracy off the tee (ranks fourth in this field) and his precision on approach shots (he’s fifth in this field).
Powers, Golf Digest: Cam Davis (+1000, BetRivers) — This feels like a pretty gross misprice for a guy who got off to a fast start last week and managed to tie for 19th, his third career top 20 in a major. The Aussie gained strokes in every area at Quail Hollow and owns a seventh-place finish at Colonial (2022).
Lack: Bud Cauley (+600, FanDuel) — Bud Cauley has been playing some phenomenal golf this season, and he has cashed a top-10 bet for us in this column recently at the Valero Texas Open. Cauley recorded three top-10 finishes in a row at the Players, Valspar and Valero, all courses that test driving accuracy to a certain extent. I expect Cauley to be extremely comfortable amidst the narrow corridors at Colonial as well.
Top-10 results from the PGA Championship: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 5 for 17 (up 12.8 units); Lack: 7 for 20 (up 11.3 units); Gdula: 7 for 20 (up 11 units); Mayo: 3 for 19 (up 3.33 units); Stewart: 6 for 20 (down 0.9 units); Hennessey: 3 for 20 (down 7 units); Powers: 0 for 20 (down 20 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
