We are pleased to announce that we are BACK on the board in 2026. A major shoutout to new panel member, Ryan Noonan, who bagged his first-ever winner in this column last week with Nico Echavarria at 60-1(!). Both of the panel’s winners have been 60-1 odds this year, the previous being Stephen Hennessey’s correct prediction of Justin Rose at Torrey. We are hitting deep shots, folks.
But now we turn the page to Bay Hill, where Scottie Scheffler (and Rory McIlroy) are in the field and are both at single-digit odds. They’re also both off to very strong starts to 2026 and have both won at Arnie’s Place before. Why even bother picking anybody else to win this week?
Well, because we like to have a good time, and we’ve had some success hunting down the board already this season.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational:
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1, FanDuel) — Fitz’s driving and irons are at an all-time peak. He’s never been on a better ball striking run in his career. Problem is, it’s perfectly coincided with an awful putting stretch. It’s not so much that he’s been bad all the time in 2026, it’s just when it has gone wrong, it’s gone really wrong. In his past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes putting to the field eight times. Not great, also not the worst. Should be manageable, right? NOPE. He’s lost more than a stroke in five of the past six rounds when he’s gone negative, topped off with dropping a laughable -5.75 SG/putting for the whole week at Riviera. Maybe there is something broken with his putting stroke. Or maybe it’s a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Regardless, I’m betting on a return to regular levels on the greens at Bay Hill, an event Fitzpatrick has played each of the past 10 years and never finished in the negative on these fast, Bermuda greens.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Collin Morikawa (27-1, DraftKings) — Say what you want about the TGL, but what I saw from Collin Morikawa at the SoFi Center on Monday night was enough. Couple that with his win at Pebble Beach, and Morikawa is back to avenge last year’s runner-up finish at API. I have watched Collin compete on site many times, and I have never seen him swing it better. Winning takes a little luck, and that’s all Morikawa will need, because let me tell you, he has the ball-striking covered. Wow.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Rory McIlroy (10-1, FanDuel) — Looking at the Floor/Ceiling view in the Rabbit Hole, McIlroy has gained three or more strokes in 36.4 percent of his rounds at Bay Hill. That’s a huge number given the sample size we’re looking at. He leads the field in the rate at which he’s gained four or more strokes (34.1 percentage) at this track. He’s gained an average of 1.86 strokes per round ball-striking in his past two starts, and he’s given himself a scoring chance (i.e., birdie or better within 15 feet) on a tour-leading 30.8 percent of his holes this season. His experience and success at Bay Hill will show up this week.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1, FanDuel) — Fitzpatrick’s on the best ball-striking run since his U.S. Open win in 2022, and longer-term, he’s only lost strokes/tee to green once since June. We’ll have a U.S. Open-type test this week at Bay Hill, where he has strong history, including a runner-up in 2019 and three other top-10s from 2020-’22. With his top ball-striking form and better baseline on Bermuda greens, Fitz can go toe to toe with the big guns—as he proved in taking down Rory McIlroy in the playoff in Dubai at the DP World Championship in November.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Jake Knapp (40-1, FanDuel) — Jake Knapp oozes West Coast energy, but this dude’s game travels anywhere. All he did on the Florida Swing a year ago was shoot 59 at the Cog (tied for sixth), then tied for 12th at the Players, so he’s already proven he’s not scared of a little Bermuda. Couple that with the fact he’s finished T-11 or better in all five starts he’s made in 2026, and it feels like something big is coming.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Scottie Scheffler (+350, FanDuel) — I try to avoid this at all costs in outright betting, but I do believe that Scottie Scheffler is winning this week, and the concerns about his recent approach play are largely overblown. This is the best course fit that Scheffler has encountered all season, and I expect him to be donning the red cardigan for the third time in five years.
Past results: We have our SECOND winner of 2026, with Ryan Noonan hitting his first-ever outright as a member of the panel, correctly predicting Nico Echavarria’s win at the Cognizant Classic at 60-1. That makes two 60-1 hits for our panel this year, with Stephen Hennessey nailing Justin Rose’s Farmers win at 60-1, too.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Nicolai Hojgaard (60-1, FanDuel) — No one from this next tier of players in the field is playing as well as Nicolai in 2026. He’s notched three top-six finishes in his past four starts between PGA and DPWT and has showcased the type of GO LOW ability that has staged many a final round comeback at Bay Hill over the years. And, unlike most in this range, it’s doubtful Hojgaard feels the pressure of the big stars around himself if he finds a late tee time. At age 24, the Dane already has a DP World Tour Championship, a Ryder Cup Win, a top 10 at the Olympics along with a litany of other close calls. Just don’t ask him to make too many seven-footers for par. Those go in with less frequency for Nicolai than his 40-footers.
Stewart: Min Woo Lee (45-1, BetRivers) — Min Woo Lee is coming off two great signature starts on the West Coast. The dynamic star from down under is driving the ball exceptionally well and scoring from close range. Lee’s short game and putting are both ranked inside the top eight in the field. When Bay Hill becomes a brick over the weekend, Min Woo has an advantage. His elite driving will create better approach chances, and his putter will convert. A strong left-to-right ball flight off the tee, and great form from 175-225 on approach, means we are looking at the next signature star on the PGA Tour.
Noonan: Ludvig Aberg (40-1, DraftKings) — Aberg is at his best on long courses with difficult scoring conditions. He is routinely one of the Tour’s best long iron players. Only Kurt Kitayama and Shane Lowry, two players with excellent course history at Bay Hill, had more scoring opportunities inside 15 feet from 200+ yards out than Ludvig Aberg over the past two seasons. Aberg’s high apex height (5th in the field) and ability to putt above his baseline on fast Bermuda greens (9th in the field) all work in his favor this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Kurt Kitayama (45-1, FanDuel) — Kitayama has been a ball-striking machine—gaining over five strokes on approach and three off the tee at Riviera en route to a T-2 finish. He returns to Bay Hill where he won as a signature event in 2023, and given how he’s playing, it wouldn’t be a surprise for him to get win #2 at Arnie’s Place.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sepp Straka (60-1, BetRivers) — Fairly surprised by this number, as Straka is a guy who has both won in Florida and won a siggy in his career. He also top 20’d in Phoenix, nearly came back to win at Pebble on Sunday and tied for fifth at Bay Hill a year ago. Are these inflated odds just because he threw up an 80 on Saturday at Riviera? Hey, bad rounds happen. I’ll gladly buy the dip.
Lack: Nicolai Hojgaard (60-1, FanDuel) — Nicolai Hojgaard has been playing some great golf recently, as evidenced by his third place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and sixth at the Cognizant Classic. Hojgaard’s combination of power off the tee and middle to long iron approach play should pay dividends at Bay Hill.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Xander Schauffele (16-1, BetRivers) — Never finished better than T-24 in four tries at Bay Hill.
Stewart: Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1, DraftKings) — Many folks are favoring Matt Fitzpatrick to win the API. There’s little doubt he has the skill set and recent form to do it. When the firm conditions showed up, Fitzpatrick’s low-ball flight became a major concern for me. High launch players have a huge advantage this week at Bay Hill. Over 72-holes, Matt will put too much pressure on his short game and putting with that Bay Hill bounce. That stress will especially show up on Sunday when he comes up short.
Noonan: Cameron Young (31-1, DraftKings) — I laid out some of my thoughts on Cameron Young in this week’s DFS piece here at Golf Digest. Fast Bermuda greens are not his thing, and he’s not a consistent enough long iron player yet. We’re starting to see that Cameron Young is more of a form player than anything else, so I want to wait until I see him string together a few strong outings before backing him.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (16-1, BetRivers) — Xander has shown glimpses of returning to his 2024 form, but he’s making too many mistakes—and I think Bay Hill will magnify that. He’s 58th in driving accuracy and 51st in bogey avoidance over the past 36 rounds, per Betsperts Golf’s Rabbit Hole.
Powers, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+300, Bet365) — As some of our friends have pointed out earlier this week, Andy Lack among them, Scheffler has seriously lacked in the approach department this season. Incredibly, he’s still won, tied for third, tied for fourth and tied for 12th in all four starts. If he was striking it like normal with the irons, he likely wins all four. Seems foolish to say, but he can’t be trusted at 3-1 with those approach numbers. Cue the seven-shot victory.
Lack: Russell Henley (28-1, BetRivers) — I know that Russell Henley is the defending champion of this event, but he is coming off a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational where he lost 1.6 strokes on approach. Iron play is typically the strongest part of Henley’s game, and if he is not firing on all cylinders on approach, the former champion will be exposed on a golf course like Bay Hill.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Alex Noren (-105) over Nick Taylor (Coolbet) — It’s been a mixed bag for Noren in 2026 after going nuclear in Europe after the PGA Tour regular season ended. There’s been little things pointing up, though. He’s gotten better in each start, despite the field strength getting stronger every time. Additionally, he’s spiked with his irons three times in his past seven rounds, gaining at least one stroke on the field on approach. The short game remains solid and his proximity from the rough from 150-plus yards is the best in the field. If Noren can clean up driver he can contend if conditions play tough.
Stewart: Harris English (-120) over Viktor Hovland (FanDuel) — With five top-30 results in five events this season, Harris English has started 2026 playing very well. Conversely, Viktor Hovland’s campaign has been a roller coaster ride. With only one finish inside the top 40 on tour, I’ll take English’s consistency over Hovland’s amusement park ride in Orlando.
Noonan: Collin Morikawa (-137) over Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel) — I love the confidence and freedom in Collin Morikawa’s game right now. He’s gained strokes throughout the bag in his past two starts, and the world-class ball-striking has returned. He’s struggled on these fast Bermuda greens, but so has his opponent here, Patrick Cantlay.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (-124) over Maverick McNealy (DraftKings) — It’s tough to believe the data sometimes when we’ve been watching a golfer over a 10-15 year career, as I think of Rickie as being an erratic golfer who’s prone to the big misses. But he’s eighth in bogey avoidance over the past 36 rounds, compared to McNealy, who’s 42nd. And McNealy is 52nd in driving accuracy, so I will go with the more consistent player in this matchup, which I can’t believe is Fowler.
Powers, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (-116) over Justin Rose (DraftKings) — Since the final round at Pebble, Rose has now lost strokes putting in three consecutive rounds. Scott, meanwhile, caught fire with his flat stick at Riviera, where he had a vintage ball-striking performance. Much like Rose, this old dog still has a ton of good golf in him, and I think he carries the momentum to Bay Hill for a win in this H2H.
Lack: Min Woo Lee (-120) over Ben Griffin (Southpoint) — This is one of my favorite plays of the week, as I unfortunately think that Griffin is on the wrong side of a good run, while Min Woo Lee is still ascending. If the former Houston Open champion can just figure out the approach play, he is a serious threat to win this week.
Matchup Results from the Cognizant Classic: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Echavarria (-124) over Higgo); Powers: 1 for 1 (Mitchell (+100) over Thorbjornsen); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Ford (+105) over Woodland); Noonan: 1 for 1 (McGreevy (-125) over Kirk); Lack: PUSH (Keefer (-175) over Putnam); Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack: 5-1-1 (up 3.26 units); Powers: 5-2-0 (up 2.61 units); Stewart: 4-1-1 (up 2.46 units); Mayo: 4-3-0 (up 1.31 units); Hennessey: 3-4-0 (down 1.26 units); Noonan: 2-4-1 (down 2.25 units)
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Sepp Straka (+450, Book) — I may be starting to have a Straka problem. Hopefully it’s actually Straka solution! I’m not entirely sure what happened to him at Riviera on the weekend but previous to those two rounds he was on pace for an elite ball-striking season. Quite similar to a year ago when he was striking the ball excellently before the final event on the West Coast, where he got cut in a Signature Event, only to rattle off a T-11/T-5/T-14 run through Florida.
Stewart: Xander Schauffele (+220, FanDuel) — When this tournament turns into a firm and fast U.S. Open-style contest, Xander Schauffele is one of the few players we can count on to survive this scorecard alongside Scottie and Rory. Top 20 in the field on approach, 12th in total driving, and second in par-4 scoring all add up to a winning ticket with 10 places.
Noonan: Matt Fitzpatrick (+220, FanDuel) — Matt Fitzpatrick has played far better than his recent finishing positions would indicate, and a lot of that has been tied to his poor putting performances to start 2026. The good news this week is that Fitzpatrick seems to love these fast Bermuda greens at Bay Hill. Overall, Bermuda is Fitzpatrick’s best putting surface. He’s gained an average of 0.66 strokes per round on Bermuda over the past two years, and he’s yet to lose strokes putting in his previous 10 career starts at Bay Hill. If he can maintain his strong ball-striking form and marry it with field-average or better putting numbers this week, he’ll contend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (+360, FanDuel) — Knapp has been one of the most consistent golfers in the world in 2026, so I’ll bank on this stretch of great play continuing.
Powers, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (+240, FanDuel) — Hitting it as good as he ever has right now and should be out for blood after last year’s debacle at Bay Hill. His iron play alone can carry him into the top 10 at Arnie’s Place.
Lack: Matt Fitzpatrick (+220, FanDuel) — I was on Matt Fitzpatrick at the Genesis, and he would probably be my pick to win this week as well if Scottie Scheffler was not in the field. Fitzpatrick has seven top-25 finishes in 11 appearances at Bay Hill, and four top 10s. He also gained strokes in all three tee-to-green categories at Riviera.
Top-10 results from the Cognizant Classic: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 3 for 7 (up 9.7 units); Noonan: 3 for 7 (up 7.6 units); Stewart: 2 for 7 (up 1.65 units); Lack: 1 for 7 (up 0 units); Powers: 1 for 7 (down 1.9 units); Hennessey: 0 for 7 (down 7 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
