Narrow fairways, thick rough, fast greens – Oakmont presents a brutal test.
Oakmont is the epitome of a US Open course: the rough is very penal, and the green speeds are among the fastest you’ll ever see. US Opens almost always favour elite ball-strikers, and the statistics show that it is more important than usual to have a great week from tee to green. Since shot-by-shot data for Oakmont is limited, as the most recent US Open there was in 2016, I’ve used Arccos Pro Insights to analyse the skills required to win the US Open that will translate well to Oakmont.
Driving accuracy: Oakmont has very thick rough and narrow fairways, meaning accuracy off the tee will be rewarded more than usual. In the past four US Opens, 70 percent of players’ strokes gained/off the tee were because of accuracy and just 30 percent were because of distance. That’s the opposite of a typical tour event. Given Oakmont’s rough, I expect this trend to continue. That will bode well for Aaron Rai, Collin Morikawa and Russell Henley, who are the most accurate players this year, each gaining at least 1.5 shots per round off the tee because of their accuracy.
Approaches outside 125 yards: During the past few years at the US Open, where players rank in their approach play outside 125 yards is highly correlated with their overall success. When we analyse the top finishers in the past four US Opens, about 70 percent of their strokes gained/total comes from either tee shots or approaches outside of 125 yards. Since Oakmont will present numerous lengthy approaches for players, especially on the par 3s, this trend should continue. Who, specifically, does that favour? Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Åberg and Scottie Scheffler have been the best so far this year at longer approaches.
Putting: Oakmont’s greens will probably be the fastest players see all year, running at least 13 on the Stimpmeter. On top of that, they have large slopes that make speed control very tricky. The key when putting on greens this fast and severe is having exceptional distance control and a high make percentage inside six feet. I’ve analysed the data of the players who have putted the best on tour over the past five years on greens that were quicker than 13 on the Stimpmeter and had medium to large slopes. The best players in the US Open field that rank high on that list are Harris English, Max Greyserman and Åberg, who all gained 0.7 shots per round or more on these greens.
Players I like at Oakmont: For all the reasons above, there is a player whose name is popping up a lot in all these categories: Ludvig Åberg. We know the Swede is an outstanding player, but his skill set is perfectly made for a US Open, especially one at Oakmont. Look for supreme ball-strikers – McIlroy, Scheffler, Schauffele – to also do well. Outside of the superstars, I like Greyserman and Rai to play well at Oakmont, as Greyserman is one of the best fast-green putters on tour and Rai is an extremely accurate player.
Edoardo Molinari, a former US Amateur champion, Ryder Cupper and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s chief data strategist.
