Back in July, I grabbed a tee time on Bethpage Black. If you are not familiar with Read The Line, I am a PGA Professional who handicaps professional golf for a living. It has its moments. Have you ever lost an outright bet where you had two of the three players in a sudden-death playoff and the third guy won? Yeah, that was the 2025 Rocket Classic for me.
Unlike many of my algorithm-obsessed, data friends, I believe predicting who will win a tournament starts with the golf course. With September looming, it was time to start my research for the Ryder Cup.
My trip around the Black (as it is known locally) was quite revealing. My PGA eyes see insights everywhere. If you’re like me and cannot wait to wager on Ryder Cup weekend, then this course preview is for you. No Farmingdale history, or state park stories. Just my golf professional’s notes on what I believe will give each team an edge toward capturing golf’s most coveted team trophy.
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This course setup tweak favors the Americans—and the reason why might surprise you
My first takeaway happened before I even teed off. The first tee was reconstructed forward and to the left of the regular tee. I had a 2019 PGA Championship scorecard with me, and already there was a change. The PGA of America provided me with an official Ryder Cup match scorecard, and I took several notes throughout the round. Five holes have been shortened for the biennial match, making the golf course 107 yards shorter than the setup for the PGA Championship.
Why in 2025 would PGA Chief Championships Officer Kerry Haigh make the course shorter?
The best way to break down this nugget is to take you back to Rome. Captain Luke Donald and vice captain Edoardo Molinari set up the Marco Simone scorecard based on their team analytics. Europe possesses an excellent group of long iron players. Together, they designed a course that presented a number of high-leverage long iron approaches, moments where a 200-plus shot was going to make or break you. If you study the players like a PGA PhD, then you know the Americans are much stronger from close range. So, what did they do? Team Europe massaged the makeup of the Marco Simone scorecard into a long iron duel. The rest, shall we say, is history.
Walking Bethpage and watching where the match scorecard started each hole was eye-opening. The U.S. is looking for scoring clubs and sub-par numbers. That makes total sense. Seven of the 10 best wedge players in the field are on the American side. Offer the home team a bunch of 150-yard (or less) approaches, and they will have an advantage over 90 holes.
Starting with the first hole, five of the holes have been shortened compared to 2019. One of the most iconic moments in U.S. Ryder Cup history was Bryson DeChambeau driving the first green at Whistling Straits on Sunday in his singles match against Sergio Garcia. The drive led to an eagle and a 3 & 2 win for DeChambeau. The first hole on the Black Course is right in his wheelhouse once again with the new tee. The scorecard reveals strategy, and it was my first sign that the Americans should be favored in the 45th Ryder Cup match.
We know Ryder Cup matches tend to close out before the final fairway. Since 2000, the average Foursome match lasts 16.54 holes. An average Four-Ball match in that time frame, 16.72 holes, and the average Singles match lasts 16.64 holes. Note to the reader, if you’re going to grab a seat on the back nine, make sure it is between holes 10 and 15! This background will frame my next observation.
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Early scoring is key: Six of the first 13 holes played to a scoring average under par at the PGA Championship.
That includes five of the first eight holes. Funny thing is, my round followed the same pattern. The Black Course builds to a crescendo around the 15th or 16th hole. One local in my group compared the climb up to the 15th green to scaling a volcano. Once you get to the top, all you want to do is throw yourself in. He wasn’t far off.
We live in a beautiful age of analytics. Weekly scoring averages tell us which players score early in their rounds. Nos. 2, 4 and 6 are birdie holes. We’ve established that most matches only last 16 holes. Combine that historical knowledge with where the Black Course will let you make a couple of birdies, and don’t be late for television coverage on Friday morning. The first tee time is 7:10 a.m. eastern. Shocker, Scottie Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in Front 9 scoring.
What’s even more interesting is that seven of the 10-best Front 9 scorers on the PGA Tour are American: what an edge.
The Black Course has a ton of elevation changes. Part of what makes the layout so special is the unique use of the land. Walking 18 holes in the summer heat was not impossible. In fact, one of the players in my group was 77 years old, and he was handling a pushcart. Fast forward to the early fall, and temperatures will be perfect for 36 holes. There will be layers worn in the morning foursomes and golf shirts in the afternoon for four-balls. Why the walk and weather report?
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Bethpage Black is grueling, but there’s an edge to be had if you trust your players to play five matches over three days.
In the 2021 and 2023 Ryder Cup Matches, Europe sent out two players who competed in all five matches. Team USA utilized one five-match player in those two Cups. Believe it or not, Scottie Scheffler was not the one five-match player in Rome; it was Max Homa!
Since 1981, the team that has played the most five-match players is 14-7. Since 2000, if you utilized more five-time guys, you are 8-2! The last time the United States employed more five match players was 2008. You know what happened at Valhalla, the U.S. won. Thank you, Paul Azinger.
Bethpage State Park is not Citi Field. These guys do not need a pitch count. It’s 90 holes of golf, and guess what, they all have caddies. Combine that with a full offseason, and you’ll have plenty of time to recover. My mid-summer round on the Black Course was really enjoyable, and one of my biggest takeaways was that playing five times can be done by golf’s greatest athletes.
When you’re playing the Black Course, it is all about survival in the moment. Many of my observations were notes on a scorecard during the round. Days later, I began the process of breaking down the design and playability of the Ryder Cup course. Within moments, I started to see the first pairings key. Walking the course, you might miss it. Place all 18 holes with notes in front of you, and one observation jumped off the page.
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Off the tee, the odd holes are built for a left-to-right tee shot. The even holes favor a right-to-left tee shot.
Why is this an important part of the course preview? Professional players have characteristic ball-flight patterns. Place a right-handed fader on the even holes? He will not play his best golf, especially under Ryder Cup pressure. Assign him to the odds where five of the seven tee shots favor a left-to-right trajectory, and he will be much happier. All seven of the tee shots on the even holes can be played right to left. This does not include the par-3 tee shots. I’m aware not everyone wants to wager on the Ryder Cup, but knowing these intimate details about the venue will increase your enjoyment of watching.
Trajectory off the tee doesn’t just apply to alternate shot. If you pair two right-handed faders together in Four-Ball, they won’t be able to complement one another on the even holes. Most pundits love the golf ball discussion, but the truth is that playability is far more important. Take it one step further. The average approach on the odd holes is from 175 yards. On the even holes, it is 157 yards. Dive deep into the skill sets of these 24 all-stars, and you can find the perfect pairings.
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“The greens are really flat on the Black Course.”
The sixth hole is a short par 4 with menacing-looking green surrounds, but a relatively flat green—like most of the putting surfaces at Bethpage Black.
Dom Furore
My caddie wasn’t short on words or opinions. Starting on the first hole, he mentioned the greens were really flat. I started thinking this is a Tillinghast course; there’s no way. Truth is, he was correct (outside of No. 11). For all the hyperbole that surrounds this setting, the putting surfaces are quite tame. At 6,000 square feet, they also aren’t too small to find, and too big to three-putt. Everyone in our group made a couple of putts that afternoon. I believe Bethpage is going to yield a bunch of low scores. Yes, the brutal Black Course is going to allow these guys to score. The American side is better at putting and making birdies (on paper). If you look at the betting line, that’s one of the main reasons why Team USA is favored over the “repeat” European side.
The PGA of America is setting this course up for sub-par scores.
I was there over eight weeks ago, and you could already see the fairway-mowing patterns develop. The rough is not nearly as high as it was for the PGA Championship or U.S. Open(s). Fairways are wider and now connect to the bunkering alongside. Toss in some smooth putting greens, and you have a recipe for an extremely entertaining weekend.
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Captains and their data teams are carefully examining approach buckets.
One more detail worth sharing is the breakdown of the various approach ranges these two teams will face. Five of the iron shots into the green will be from inside 125 yards. Nine more will challenge these guys from 175 yards or more. It is a tale of two types of approach players. Pay attention to the pairings again. A majority of these approach lengths have not been manipulated. The captains have scouted the golf course and knew the desired skill set needed before they selected their teams.
How they perform really comes down to these observations. Not all of these specifically, but what Keegan, Luke and their vice captains see as well. We live in an age where these teams also employ statisticians who break down every inch of the landscape. My round only covers part of what goes into the game plan. By looking at the course through an educated lens, each side finds insights that favor their side. Giving their players an edge and the best chance to perform under golf’s greatest pressure.
The locals I played with that day were incredible. Their love of the course and willingness to share their personal stories helped me create this unique course preview. Once the interviews start, pay attention to the players as they will give you more clues. Their interviews and practice rounds will uncover more relevant information. I know my process to handicapping the Ryder Cup will take all week.
The books favor the Americans, but far too great for the makeup of these two sides.
Many could argue that Europe has the better ball-striking team and holds more Ryder Cup experience. They would have a valid argument. The beauty of this golf exhibition is that it isn’t played on paper. It involves insanely nationalistic crowds and a legendary championship layout. The crowds we cannot control, but our approach to betting on the 45th Ryder Cup can result in a positive return if we pay attention to the Black’s details.
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
