Max Homa entered the 2023 Procore Championship as the two-time defending champion. He was about to compete for the U.S. side in the Ryder Cup matches and finished top 10 in his past four starts. Homa was gaining an average of six strokes on the field over his past five starts and looked to be in a very good place mentally and physically to win for a third straight time at the Silverado Resort in Napa, California. He finished seventh.

What a difference a year makes.

Homa’s summer struggles are well documented. After a third place at the Masters and eighth at Wells Fargo, Max has not finished better than 22nd since May. The captain’s pick for the USA Presidents’ Cup team has an extraordinary amount of pressure placed on him as he heads back to California. Homa currently holds the fourth-lowest odds on the betting board. When Max defended his title in 2022, his pre-tourney odds were the same as they are today: 20-1.

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Homa has lost an average of five strokes (-5.4) to the field over his last five starts, two strokes (-1.9) per start over his last 10! He recently split with longtime instructor Mark Blackburn and has 17 days until the first set of matches open the Presidents’ Cup. I know why the oddsmakers have given Max those short odds, but as you can see in the Odds Drop video (below), Chris Powers, Steve Hennessey, and I see no value in his position.

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The North Course at the Silverado Resort requires accuracy off the tee. Homa’s struggles are primarily related to his driver. Max has lost strokes off the tee in 11 straight Shotlink events. Off-the-tee ability is a necessary skill in Napa and the main reason why Max won here in 2021 and 2022.

Like Chris and Steve, I’m going to hold off on Homa. Instead, I am going to run with a familiar Read The Line name from the last six weeks: JJ Spaun. Spaun’s final two starts of the regular season were a ninth at the 3M Open and a third place at the Wyndham Championship. I backed him in both starts. Over his last five events, Spaun is gaining an average of seven strokes (+7.3) on the field. To put in perspective, Spaun is playing 13 strokes better than Homa (on average).

At 35-1 on Monday, I see far more value on JJ Spaun, and I’m therefore betting him to start my week. Along with Eric Cole, these two sit well above Homa on the board and make more sense from an odds perspective. We will all be bullish on Max again, but for the time being let’s avoid this California Bear’s market value.

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

This article was originally published on golfdigest.com