The debate over whether the Players Championship should be golf’s fifth major rages on, but there’s no debating it’s one of the biggest events—and hardest to win—in the game. So we’re going to treat it like a major and rank out 13 best bets heading into next week’s tournament at TPC Sawgrass.
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Once considered a completely unpredictable event, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the world’s two best players, have combined to win the last three editions and four of the last six. But Pete Dye’s Stadium design gives golfers of all styles a fighting chance. Consider last year when J.J. Spaun took McIlroy to a Monday playoff. So who will claim the golden trophy and a $4.5 million check this time? Here’s our (fluid) ranking of our best bets (odds via DraftKings) to get the job done at TPC Sawgrass.
1. Rory McIlroy (10/1) 
Ben Jared
Reason to pick: The defending champ, a two-time winner at TPC Sawgrass, and double-digit odds.
Cause for concern: No one has ever won three times at TPC Sawgrass.
2. Scottie Scheffler (3/1) 
Orlando Ramirez
Reason to pick: The 2023 and 2024 Players champ, he won his first start of the season at the American Express.
Cause for concern: See that note above about no one winning three times at TPC Sawgrass. Also, the World No. 1 is currently on a three-tournament losing streak!
3. Xander Schauffele (25/1) 
Alex Goodlett
Reason to pick: After a rare missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open to start 2026, Schauffele has improved in each start since, including a T-7 at Riviera.
Cause for concern: The two-time major champ’s ball-striking numbers are good, but he’s only 112th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained/around-the-green.
4. Tommy Fleetwood (18/1) 
Jed Jacobsohn
Reason to pick: He already won the PGA Tour event with the biggest payout in August, so why not win the second-biggest in March?
Cause for concern: The top-10 machine hasn’t recorded a top-10 finish in this event since 2019.
5. Shane Lowry (50/1) 
Mike Ehrmann
Reason to pick: An overseeded Florida course with a lot of water? The Irishman seems to flourish in those conditions down the road at PGA National. Plus, there’s no Bear Trap at TPC Sawgrass.
Cause for concern: But … as we’ve seen in that other Florida event, closing out tournaments is not Shane’s strongsuit. And TPC Sawgrass’ 16th, 17th and 18th are among the most dramatic holes on tour.
6. J.J. Spaun (49/1) 
Orlando Ramirez
Reason to pick: Nearly a surprise winner here last year, he’s very undervalued as the reigning U.S. Open champ.
Cause for concern: It’s been a surprisingly slow start to 2026 for Spaun with two missed cuts and nothing better than a T-40.
7. Jake Knapp (54/1) 
Icon Sportswire
Reason to pick: This guy’s advanced stats are off the charts, so it seems like it’s just a matter of time before he picks up PGA Tour title No. 2. Plus, he finished T-12 in his debut at TPC Sawgrass last year.
Cause for concern: A lack of reps being in contention in big events.
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8. Si Woo Kim (32/1) 
Orlando Ramirez
Reason to pick: The 2017 winner is a Pete Dye design savant and is off to a strong start on tour in 2026 with three top-10s already.
Cause for concern: Si Woo has only won two times on the PGA Tour since that Players win nine years ago.
9. Robert MacIntyre (40/1) 
David Cannon
Reason to pick: The Scot has become a fixture on leaderboards at big events, finishing ninth here last year and then finishing runner-up at the U.S. Open and T-7 at the Open Championship.
Cause for concern: MacIntyre only ranks 141st in strokes gained/approach in 2026.
10. Collin Morikawa (32/1) 
Orlando Ramirez
Reason to pick: A switch to a mallet putter helped Morikawa end his 28-month PGA Tour winless drought at Pebble Beach, and he finished T-10 at TPC Sawgrass last year.
Cause for concern: Was that just one hot week or are his overall stats (131st in strokes gained/putting) more indicative of where his putting is right now?
11. Matt Fitzpatrick (46/1) 
Andrew Redington
Reason to pick: The ball-striking (fourth in strokes gained/approach) is as good as it’s ever been.
Cause for concern: The putting (141st in strokes gained) is as bad as it’s ever been.
12. Justin Rose (36/1) 
Harry How/Getty Images
Reason to pick: The 45-year-old continues to add to what should be a Hall-of-Fame career, and he’s had three top-10s at TPC Sawgrass in his last 10 trips.
Cause for concern: He’s also had four missed cuts during that stretch, but that’s how it often goes at this volatile track.
13. Jacob Bridgeman (70/1) 
Icon Sportswire
Reason to pick: Despite starting the season with five consecutive top-five finishes including his maiden PGA Tour title, oddsmakers still don’t seem to be giving the (early) FedEx Cup leader his proper respect.
Cause for concern: He’s making his Players debut—and no one has ever won in their first start at TPC Sawgrass. OK, so maybe the oddsmakers know exactly what they’re doing.
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This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
