The old saw is that you can’t win the Masters on Thursday but you can lose it. Unlike most pithy sayings that tend to ring a little bit hollow, this one holds remarkably true.
If you’re looking to place some cold, hard cash on the outright winner this week, maybe wait until after the first 18 holes. That’s because the options likely will have narrowed considerably if history holds.
In the last 15 Masters only four times has the winner resided outside the top four after the completion of the first round. Getting out of the gates well has taken on added importance more recently, with the last five winners all starting T-3 or better with two of them tied for the lead (Dustin Johnson in 2020 and Jon Rahm in 2023). The average score for those five rounds? A sporty 66.8.
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“It’s just being in a good position, period,” said Rahm of his opening 65 in 2023. “In the past, I haven’t had my best start, and you’re having to already, you know, swim against the current a little bit and try to make up shots throughout the week.”
Rahm likely was remembering his opening 75 in 2018. He followed that scratchy first-round up with 68-65-69, but couldn’t catch Patrick Reed, finishing solo fourth, four shots back. Reed, conversely, opened with 69 (T-4) and donned the green jacket.
Still, it’s valuable to remember that a good opening round doesn’t mean you have to be sitting on the lead. In fact, if you believe in trendlines, you absolutely, positively don’t want it after 18 holes. Since 1984 only one player—yes one—has held the outright lead after the first round and gone on to win. That was Jordan Spieth, who held a three-shot cushion after Thursday in 2015. In the same time frame, only three winners shared the first-round lead. Johnson, Rahm and Trevor Immelman in 2008.
The assignment for the 95 Masters competitors teeing it up tomorrow is clear: play well, but not too well.
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This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
