The top 70 players from the PGA Tour in 2026 are walkin’ in Memphis as the FedEx Cup playoffs kick off a three-week run to the Tour Championship. A loaded field, a familiar course and high stakes are on deck as fewer bodies are fighting for top-50 status to advance to next week. TPC Southwind plays host, potentially for the final time, as historical data points to a specific player fit who routinely succeeds.
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Subtle changes to the golf course last year produced similar results, although all 18 greens were replaced, and they added 50 yards to the scorecard. Players will look to battle their opponents and the Memphis heat, but water is lurking everywhere to make things even more uncomfortable. This remains a second-shot course that prioritizes accuracy over power, and putting on firm, lightning-quick Bermuda greens often separates the contenders on the weekend.
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are back to lead the way and defending champion Justin Rose also punched his ticket to the first leg of the playoffs. A quick glance at the leaderboard highlights the importance of elite iron play and experienced decision-makers.
Let’s get right into the top-10 contenders to win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
10. Aaron Rai 
Caleb Bowlin
No one’s price on the odds board this week looks more disrespectful than Aaron Rai. We are looking at a major champion, and the leader in driving accuracy for the season on a course that demands precision. Rai is the type of course fit we are looking for.
A midseason slump with the putter saw nice improvement last week at Sedgefield, which coincidentally, also featured Bermuda greens. Rai fits the mold of players who have had success in Memphis and can be trusted to not beat himself. I like his chances to surprise some people on the leader board.
Read The Line’s Joe Idone and John Haslbauer explain why they love Aaron Rai at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship:
Watch Read The Line’s full betting breakdown of the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship here.
9. J.J. Spaun
It took three playoff holes with dueling birdies to keep J.J. Spaun out of the winner’s circle at the 2025 edition of the St. Jude. He’s back with unfinished business, and if he can summon a functioning putter, watch out.
This golf course allows Spaun to do what he does best: Play from the fairways, find targets and attack pins. That’s the game plan he deployed to shoot a final-round 65 last year. His scoring average and ball-striking are trending exactly the way you want as he returns to TPC Southwind.
8. Matt Fitzpatrick 
David Cannon
If you are waiting for Matt Fitzpatrick to cool down than you are in for a long, hot summer. He has cemented himself as a top player in the world and perennial contender any time he tees it up. He arrives second in the FedEx Cup standings in a season that is highlighted by three victories.
The conversation starts with his vastly improved approach play in 2026. The smallish and firm greens at TPC Southwind put an added emphasis on proper iron play, and Fitzpatrick has been the best player on the PGA Tour in that regard all season. We’ve always known him to thrive on positional setups, and this version of Fitzpatrick is poised to make a run at win No. 4.
7. Hideki Matsuyama
His popularity on betting cards may reach an all-time high this week, and for good reason. Hideki Matsuyama has built one of the strongest resumes at TPC Southwind over the years, capped by the 2024 title. He has played a lot of weeks in a row now, but it’s all been too quality to ignore.
The form absolutely lines up—with top 15s galore over the past five weeks while many of the big names have been on the shelf. I expect zero rust out of Matsuyama who continues his run of summer flushing. 33-1 for a former champion in red-hot current form should have the interest of everyone.
6. Tommy Fleetwood 
Michael Reaves
TPC Southwind looks like an ideal golf course for Tommy Fleetwood on paper. But, there’s some sticky relationship history there. Last year was a painful experience as Fleetwood stalled on Sunday and missed out on the playoff by a single stroke. That said, the level of consistency at this venue suggests that he’s likely to throw his hat squarely in the ring again this season.
Somewhere along the career line, you have to believe Fleetwood can convert his form into a trophy in an event with more than 30 players. Right? The lack of win equity is always built into the price, and you may have to live with it at TPC Southwind as he attempts to carve up this design one more time.
5. Collin Morikawa
I’m buying the upside of Collin Morikawa as I believe he might be the best course fit on the board. There is no reason he shouldn’t be fully healthy this week, and the last time we saw him on a golf course that suited his skills and rewarded accuracy, he finished third in Cromwell.
The formula is quite simple. Fairways, greens and stockpile looks at birdie from inside 20 feet. The one area he has struggled of late is chipping and putting, but I’m optimistic as he’s proven that he can consistently gain in both departments at TPC Southwind over the years. That’s enough to make him one of the top contenders to win in my book.
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4. Rory McIlroy 
BEN STANSALL
The rankings at No. 4 feels a touch uncomfortable, but there has got to be a reason that Rory McIlroy has elected to skip this event so many times. The thing is, when he does play, he’s demonstrated that he can succeed here with three career top-5s.
The biggest thing is that I believe this golf course takes driver out of his hands quite a bit, minimizing his weaponry. The ceiling for Rory is untouchable, but the sheer combination of the layoff and a slightly imperfect course fit pushes him down the list. But, it’s Rory. He scares me.
3. Cameron Young
Cameron Young was right in the mix a year ago with a solo fifth-place result, and he’s basically a fixture at this point on signature event leaderboards dating back to 2025. It goes to show that his ball-striking prowess travels anywhere, whether it’s Northern England or Detroit, Mich.
He’s gone ice cold with the putter this summer, but his best results all season came with a substantial uptick in performance on Bermuda greens. He can utilize his power to take care of the par 5s with ease, and if Cam can muster up any sort of confidence with the flat stick in Memphis, then he’s primed for his fourth win in the calendar year on the PGA Tour.
2. Sam Burns 
Richard Heathcote
In the famous words of Mr. Burns, Sam’s PGA Tour resume has been “excellent.” He arrives in Memphis arguably playing the best golf of his career. The stat profile specific to TPC Southwind gets even more interesting when you factor in the rare degree of putting upside that you get with a player like Burns.
Then, there’s the course history. Burns has finished T-2, T-20, T-52, T-5 and T-28 across his last five trips to TPC Southwind. It’s been three years since Sam Burns won on the PGA Tour, and he’s practically ready to bust the door down at this point. This feels like the spot.
1. Scottie Scheffler
There is no reason to overcomplicate this. Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the field, he’s borderline desperate for a win, and he’s my top rated course fit. He ranks either first or second in almost every stat category that I am targeting, and he also comes with the quality course history to drive a nail into his case.
This is a course that should allow him to separate, and with the field tightened to 70 players, there are less opportunities for somebody to catch a “lightning in a bottle week.” There are creative options down the board and certainly players with more attractive betting prices, but nobody is more likely to win this tournament than Scottie Scheffler.
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Joe Idone is a Read The Line contributor and host of the Preferred Lines podcast.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
