Forty-one tournaments down. One to go. The 2026 DP World Tour season comes to end this week in Dubai, where both a tournament and season-long champion will be crowned. But who can still win the Race to Dubai and lift the Harry Vardon Trophy on Sunday? What does Rory McIlroy need to do to tie Colin Montgomerie’s record eight Race to Dubai titles? And can former LIV golfer Jon Rahm actually be the top man on the DP World Tour for the season?
Let us explain.
After an exciting finish in Abu Dhabi last week, Rahm secured his first DP World Tour victory in over three years and McIlroy finished solo third. Both arrive in Dubai with a chance of winning the season-long race. They are among nine players who can “mathematically” win the Race to Dubai.
Here’s each of the nine and a basic overview of what they need to do this week at Jumeirah Golf Estates.
1. Eugenio Chacarra 
[Photo: Warren Little]
The former LIV golfer has a healthy lead atop the Race to Dubai rankings, despite cracking the face of his driver in Abu Dhabi and admitting he was struggling. The 26-year-old has led the standings since picking up his third win of the DP World Tour season in India in October and very much controls his destiny this week in Dubai. A win would guarantee he becomes the third Spaniard to win the season-long title, joining Jon Rahm and Seve Ballesteros.
2. Rory McIlroy 
[Photo: Luke Walker]
With his third-place finish in Abu Dhabi, McIlroy made up significant ground in the Race to Dubai to Chacarra. He has moved ahead of Patrick Reed into second in the rankings and like Chacarra, he controls his own destiny in Dubai. A win for McIlroy—a title he has claimed three times before—would guarantee he ties Monty with an eighth career Race to Dubai title.
McIlroy needs at least a top-four finish in Dubai for any chance to overtake Charcarra. For example, a solo fourth would require the Spaniard to finish 47th or worse, out of a field of just 50 players.
Only one American has ever won the Race to Dubai (Collin Morikiawa in 2021). With his PGA Tour card already secure for 2027, Reed will have his sights set on a high finish after leading the race most of the reason. The 2018 Masters champ requires a top-two finish for any chance of overtaking McIlroy and Chacarra. Should Reed win, Chacarra would need to finish third or worse.
4. Casey Jarvis 
[Photo: Kate McShane]
For the remainder of the group of contenders, nothing other than a win would be enough to lift the season-long title. Jarvis, who won back-to-back titles in South Africa and Kenya earlier this season, sits fourth in the standings with one event left to play. The 23-year-old would need to win and hope Chacarra finishes fourth or worse for a chance to win the Race to Dubai.
5. Aaron Rai 
[Photo: Richard Heathcote]
It has certainly been a memorable season for Englishman. Having won his first major title at the PGA Championship in May, he rounds out the top five in the Race to Dubai rankings heading into Dubai. Rai would require his fifth DP World Tour win and Chacarra finishing eighth or worse. That is the minimum, however, with the likes of McIlroy, Reed and Jarvis able to impact Rai’s chances, even with that scenario.
6. Jon Rahm 
[Photo: Luke Walker]
It’s been a roller coaster few weeks for Rahm. From announcing that he would be leaving LIV Golf, to the final demise of LIV, to welcoming his fourth child, to a victory in his debut appearance in Abu Dhabi last week, Rahm’s life has changed. Now he hopes he can change the outcome of the Race to Dubai this week, although he admitted after his win on Sunday he wasn’t aware he was still in the running for the Harry Vardon Trophy, an honour he first claimed in 2019. Rahm would need a victory in Dubai and require Chacarra to finish ninth or worse.
7. Jayden Schaper 
[Photo: Richard Heathcote]
Like Rahm, Schaper’s week in Abu Dhabi has given him the glimmer of hope, albeit a small one, as he arrives in Dubai. The 25-year-old finished solo eighth at Yas Links, his seventh top-10 of the season, and “could” win the Race to Dubai with a win and a 13th-place finish or worse for Chacarra.
8. Ryan Fox 
[Photo: Luke Walker]
Similar to Rai, Fox’s season will be remembered for his major victory at Royal Birkdale. The Champion Golfer of the Year tees it up at Jumeirah Golf Estates with a very small chance of becoming the DP World Tour’s golfer of the year. Should Fox win and Chacarra finish 14th or worse, the 39-year-old would have a chance to win the Race to Dubai.
9. Daniel Hillier 
[Photo: Eurasia Sport Images]
We doubt even Hillier knows he has a chance to win the Race to Dubai this week. The 28-year-old New Zealander has enjoyed a consistent year, with three runner-up finishes on the DP World Tour, and has secured his PGA Tour card for 2027. However, should he win the DP World Tour Championship and Chacarra finish 31st or worse (out of 50 players), Hillier would have a mathematical chance of winning the season-long race.
