As the dust settles on an incredible 106th PGA Championship, can those getting ready to compete in the Charles Schwab from the PGA compartmentalize last week’s experience and get ready for a new “Challenge?” Take note, this is the 78th edition of the tournament at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, but Colonial went through an extensive golf course renovation led by Gil Hanse. In 11 months, they have rebuilt the classic Colonial to test the tour.

How will the golf course changes affect our betting card as compared to last year?

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Colonial Country Club has always been a positional golf course that favors patience off the tee and exceptional iron play. A par-70 test measuring 7,289 yards has maintained scoring control far better than many modern courses these guys play. For example, the average winning score over the last decade is 12-under par. If you finished 12-under at Valhalla on Sunday, you were in 12th place! A classic design by Perry Maxwell has now been enhanced by Hanse, the exact elements needed to win have only become far more important.

When the odds board dropped on Monday morning, the initial pricing really caught my attention. Fresh off felony charges, Scottie Scheffler is in the field. Hopefully, playing in his hometown will keep him from being processed around the course. Having Scheffler’s short odds (+275) elevates the others on the betting board. Approach play has always been a major focus when handicapping Colonial. Hanse’s guidance in restoring the famous course will only further emphasize the need for accurate approaches.

Therefore, on a Monday morning, I don’t like the value of the betting favorites who are in the bottom third of approach for this field. Min Woo Lee (40-1) is in the same range as some of the best iron players in the field like, Tony Finau (35-1), Si Woo Kim (40-1), and Adam Scott (50-1). Lee is an exceptional driver of the ball, but that skill will be mitigated by the length and size of these Hogan corridors at Colonial.

Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we’re fading for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge:

Instead of Lee, I’m looking at the best approach player in the game. Mr. Proximity to the Pin, Tom Hoge (50-1), makes much more sense. His record on positional layouts is very strong and he just gained six strokes on approach en route to a 23rd-place finish at Valhalla. Grab Hoge today, because as the conversation continues this week, his number will drop.

Golf Digest experts Chris Powers and Stephen Hennessey join me every week to analyze the best/worst values. Check out our video alongside this article. Powers just predicted Xander Schauffele to win the PGA Championship. Watch the video and get Hoge on your Charles Schwab portfolio this week.

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

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