The story of the Vibes Guide in 2026 is one of excellence, brief heartbreak and ultimate redemption of the most glorious kind. After the shock of missing out completely on Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship, I came back with a vengeance by declaring the start of the raw, uncut vibes era, obliged to man, and proceeded to predict the dark inevitability of Wyndham Clark’s win at Shinnecock Hills in the No. 1 spot. Which means that for our last instalment of the year, at the Open Championship, we’re playing with house pounds, having clearly established ourselves as the top dog in golf handicapping (and in honour of England, yes, we’re using the royal “we” here). Here’s the franchise rundown so far:
Masters 2025: Successfully picked Rory (at No. 41)
PGA 2025: Successfully picked Scottie Scheffler (at No. 1!!)
US Open 2025: Forgot to do one, would’ve definitely had Spaun at No. 1
Open Championship 2025: Successfully picked Scottie again (at No. 4)
Masters 2026: Successfully picked Rory again (No. 29)
PGA Championship 2026: The tragedy of Aaron Rai \
US Open 2026: Wyndham Clark all day every day (No. 1)
You know the drill: This is your definitive ranking of the true contenders at Royal Birkdale, from 41 down to 1, based not on data or inside information or any kind of analysis beyond the truth north of VIBES. Feel is real in this world, so let us tell you how it’s going down in Britain town.
41. Bryson DeChambeau 
[Photo: Andy Buchanan]
Good Vibes: Probably finished fourth last week in LIV Golf Mogadishu or Ciudad Juarez or wherever. I’d look it up, but LIV’s website is now run by Armenian debt collectors.
Bad Vibes: Keeps googling the words, “Possible to shrink to doll-size, upload self to computer, become full-time YouTube creature and leave painful world behind forever???”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Noooooope. He’s admitted he can’t handle links golf in bad weather, probably because on the Internet there is no wind or rain, only the soft comforting glow of Mother Screen.
40. Sepp Straka
Good Vibes: If he has a bad tournament at Birkdale, I probably won’t include him in this thing next year. “Hey, those aren’t good vibes,” you say? Buddy, that’s as good as it’s going to get. Read on.
Bad Vibes: In the last two years, he’s missed five of seven major cuts and (prepare yourself), three cuts in all the rest of his tournaments. Three! You know how Augusta will pull former champions aside when they start getting old and ask them to stop playing? Straka never won the Masters, but he’s been so bad at majors that he might be the first to get that treatment as a 34-year-old. They’ll stop him at the gates next April and say, “sir, Mr. Ridley would like a word.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? He can safely book the Beatles Magical Mystery Bus Tour in Liverpool for Saturday morning.
Good Vibes: In 14 tournaments so far this year, he’s only missed the top 10 four times!!! Hurray! (It would probably be rude to point out that when he’s not playing on LIV, he’s missed three of three cuts, because this is the “good vibes” section.)
Bad Vibes: You know the story of Hiroo Onoda, the Japanese soldier in World War II who never got the message that the war was over and kept fighting in the Philippines jungle until 1974? That’s Jon Rahm with LIV, except he knows it’s over and has to stay because his contract runs through 2137. It’ll be him, 90-year-old Richard Bland, Barron Trump and the sixth Koepka brother as the last team going.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I briefly believed in him at the U.S. Open, but then he got cut, and then he got cut again at the Scottish, so I’m going to answer this question with an anagram of his name: “Ha! No, Mr. J.”
38. Shane Lowry
Good Vibes: Won an Open, once. Did the Ryder Cup thing. Milked the *$% out of it.
Bad Vibes: Seems to have permanently slotted himself into finishing between 20th and 30th after gagging away the Cognizant with two of the worst irons you’ve ever seen. I’m not sure he wants any part of a tournament lead at this point, much less at a major.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, if you mean a chance to curse out Royal Birkdale after a three-putt.
37. Jeongwoo Ham
Good Vibes: I’m putting him here based on no knowledge not just because his last name is Ham, but because this seems to be the South Korean version of “Jon Hamm.”
Bad Vibes: None. His last name is Ham.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: No, but I’ll be at Birkdale and doing my best to film an underground indie documentary called “Ham v. Rahm” where I try to push the narrative that there’s a bitter feud between them that can only be resolved by death.
36. Alex Smalley
Good Vibes: We got to learn much about him at the PGA, when I thought he acquitted himself well under pressure as the third-round leader, despite losing to Rai’s late surge.
Bad Vibes: Kinda hit the skids after the PGA, with a couple missed cuts, a T-47 at the Travelers and another MC at the Scottish, but that might just be a temporary shock to the system after his mother let him have his first Coca-Cola.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Can’t see it, especially if his sleep training is disturbed by the time change.
35. Cameron Smith
[Photo: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images]
Good Vibes: Is the man who seemed to quit caring about golf forever when he joined LIV slowly finally coming out of his Dustin Johnson Jr. phase and showing signs of life? A T-7 at the PGA sorta/kinda hinted at it, and he’s put up a few results at LIV. Shall we invite him back into our golf brains?
Bad Vibes: Yeah, but he got cut at Shinnecock and again at the Scottish. The Mullet Pendulum is swinging back in the wrong direction.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: If he makes the cut, he can jump up a level on the LIV Scale, from “total vanishing act” to “extreme disappointment.” Huge opportunity.
34. Tiger Christensen 
[Photo: Johannes Simon]
Good Vibes: I know what you’re thinking—you just picked this guy because his name is Tiger. To which I say, wow, looks like someone doesn’t know their German stars from the 2021 Jacques Leglise Trophy. Idiot.
Bad Vibes: He was only named 50 percent after Tiger Woods, according to Google. The other 50 percent? Polish-German boxer Dariusz “Tiger” Michalczewski, a friend of his dad’s, who had a brilliant career and then, per Wikipedia, was arrested under the influence of cocaine after a dispute with his wife. When they ask Christensen who he’s named after, he should probably just say “Japanese jazz drummer Tiger Onitsuka.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Buddy, you’re looking at a guy who just finished T-17 in the Blot Play9 event on the Hotel Planner Tour. So … no.
33. Max Homa
Good Vibes: Almost won the John Deere! Is he back from the wilderness? And has he ever actually used a riding lawnmower?
Bad Vibes: It’s been so long since Peak Homa that he must win before we can shake ourselves out of the “Max Homa had a really good two years and then disappeared forever” mindset.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I say no, but I’m already getting excited for his return to the Ryder Cup at Adare Manor.
32. Harris English 
[Photo: Stuart Kerr/R&A]
Good Vibes: Steady man! Steady soul!
Bad Vibes: I yawned 17 times while typing his name.
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I want to say maybe, because of his solo second at Portrush last year, but ultimately, no.
Good Vibes: For me, there’s no better trip down memory lane than Spieth winning at this very course almost a decade ago in the most chaotic, electric way possible. Do we think maybe Spieth is like a cartoon character who lost his memory and can only gain it back when he’s smacked in the head by the same anvil that gave him amnesia in the first place? Which, in this tortured analogy, means he gets his mojo back at Birkdale?
Bad Vibes: Answer to previous question: It seems unlikely.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: [Being led off a plank, blindfolded, sword at my back, weighted ball attached to my ankle to ensure that I drown once I hit the water]: You know, I think there are a lot of reasons to feel positive here …
30. The Bloodthirsty Danes
Good Vibes: This time, representing the fine state of Denmark, we have the Hojgaard triplets: Rasmus, Nicolai, and Rasmus “Neergaard-Petersen” Hojgaard.
Bad Vibes: I’ve sort of soured on these guys a little. Win a major already! The Swedes have won! The Norwegians are trying way harder! Even the Finns look dangerous! What are you, a bunch of Thomas Bjorns?
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: As long as they don’t win, I’m calling them the “Baby Bjorns.”
29. The Hu-“Man” Element
Good Vibes: Each major, I include anyone with the word “man” in their name in this group, and the roster for Birkdale is: Jacob Bridgeman, Max Greyserman, Brian Harman, Joaquin Niemann and newcomer Tom Sloman. This is a fearsome bunch, and it includes a former Open champ, so even though they haven’t come through yet, optimism is high in the Man Camp.
Bad Vibes: Now that I’ve grouped Joaquin Niemann in with these guys, which I had avoided before, they’re doomed to major failure.
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Maybe, but they’ll have to contend with their arch-nemesis gang, the “Gal Pals,” which is every player in the field with the word “gal” in his name. (Currently, that’s only Sahith Theegala.)
Good Vibes: Tearing up the DP World Tour like it’s his job. Which it is. For now. Until the AI robot golfers take over.
Bad Vibes: Being the best player on the DPWT is like being the basketball player in Mongolia. You’ve got to be pretty good to earn that designation, but in the end over-expansion and crises of succession are going to doom your empire to collapse. Wait, I think I lost track here …
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Not sure he can dance with the big dogs just yet.
27. Hideki Matsuyama
Good Vibes: I have a serious debate going on in my head on whether to sub in Matsuyama for Koepka in this season-long pool where I have a real chance to finish on the podium. I’m probably going to stick with Koepka, and this ensures Hideki will finish in the top five.
Bad Vibes: Actually, I’ve talked myself into starting Hideki, which means he’ll now miss the cut and potentially get eaten by a bear.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I don’t think so. His last top-10 was at Pebble, and if you compare him to the Japanese baseball team the Nippon-Ham Fighters, he’s more ham than fighter. (I can’t get away from ham today. Nor do I want to.)
26. Akshay Bhatia
Good Vibes: Got his first top-10 since Bay Hill at the Travelers, and the controversy around his definitely-not-anchoring putting stroke has died down slightly.
Bad Vibes: You know the old expression about how dogs and their owners start to look alike? Do you think the same is true of Akshay and his broomstick putter?
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Vaguely, yes, though I was surprised to see him skip the Scottish. I haven’t seen a guy get this little U.K. prep since [Googles furiously] Malaysian golfer Mirabel Ting failed to sufficiently study for her entrance exams to Universiti Kebangsaan. [people give me high fives, say, ‘wow, we thought you were in trouble with that joke, but you pulled it out.’]
25. Harris English
[Photo: Stuart Kerr/R&A]
Good Vibes: Ham ham ham ham ham ham ham ham ham.
Bad Vibes: If I’m going to have a recurring bit where I list one guy down multiple times, why on Earth did I pick Harris English?
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: This one? This Harris? Yes.
24. J.J. Spaun
Good Vibes: Seemed to be the Aaron Rai of his day, but has hung around bravely and proved to be … well, if not elite, elite-ish.
Bad Vibes: I still can’t find one, but rest assured, I’m looking. I’ve begun to go through his trash.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Barely.
Good Vibes: The classic “always hanging around” guy.
Bad Vibes: The classic “we’re not sure if we want him always hanging around” guy.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, but he kind of reminds me of that dude who enrolled in high school even though he was secretly in his 40s, and didn’t want anyone to know, so at track meets he’d always lose the big race to make sure his name wouldn’t get in the papers and attract too much attention. That’s why Ben Griffin is still major-less, for me.
22. Patrick Reed 
[Photo: Andrew Redington]
Good Vibes: [pretends to fall asleep to avoid question]
Bad Vibes: [pretends to fall asleep harder, does some obviously fake loud snoring]
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes. Since running roughshod over the DP World Tour earlier this year, he’s been vaguely in the hunt at the majors but hasn’t quite sustained it for four days, which is also what we saw at the Scottish this past week. But he’s definitely capable.
21. Aaron Rai
Good Vibes: Look, all I’m saying is, the guy’s been playing pretty well since he got his PGA win that everyone called a fluke. T-11 at Shinnecock? Nothing wrong with that!
Bad Vibes: Uses head covers for his irons. Unless there’s some story about it that I missed, which I seriously doubt, I’m sorry, but that’s just arrogant and fussy. (Oh wait, there is a story, and it’s a good one. Never mind!)
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I stand proudly with my humble soft-spoken English lad and mutter, tentatively but bravely but also under my breath, “perhaps yes!”
20. Patrick Cantlay
Good Vibes: It has been weeks since he watched a video of a lion mauling an antelope for fun.
Bad Vibes: That’s only because it doesn’t do it for him anymore.
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: He’s had a very quiet solid season, so yeah, sort of.
19. The Forgettables
Good Vibes: This is a new category where I’m throwing every solid but bland American PGA Tour player who has probably won a tournament in the past two years that, gun to head, I couldn’t name and otherwise have no opinion on. They’re not exactly obscure, and probably not even journeymen, but even though they could pull off an Aaron Rai-style win, I can’t muster anything more than a “hey, they exist!” Birkdale’s cast: J.T. Poston, Maverick McNealy, Sam Stevens, Ryan Gerard, Bud Cauley, Michael Brennan, Eric Cole.
Bad Vibes: I’ve already forgotten who I’m talking about. What category is this? Are we still doing that golf vibes thing?
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Where am I?
18. Brooks Koepka
Good Vibes: His creep back up the World Ranking has been slow but surprisingly steady, and he’s landing in the top 15 more of than you’d think. If you think about it at all.
Bad Vibes: After a nice Players and Masters, he hasn’t shown much in his last two majors, and he just missed the cut at the Scottish. But don’t worry, I plan to find him this week and impress upon him how important it is that he play well for my season-long pool.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: If he doesn’t win, he should blow minds and re-sign with LIV.
17. Russell Henley
Good Vibes: The win at Colonial was my personal feel-good result of the year, even if I might be alone there. His reward for all his great play from 2024 to 2025 was to get dumped into the cement mixer of bad strategy at the Ryder Cup, but it hasn’t shaken him. I sense a good major result coming.
Bad Vibes: Still not related to Don, and “Boys of Summer” gets better with each passing year.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Out on the road today, I saw a Bulldog sticker on a British bus. A little voice inside my head said, “you better pick Russ, yeah, you better pick Russ.”
16. Tyrrell Hatton 
[Photo: Ross Parker – SNS Group]
Good Vibes: I haven’t been here long, but I’ve heard Southport has a reputation as kind of a tough town, full of unsavory characters. Hatton will fit in perfectly here, as I rate him “most likely golf professional to survive a shiv attack.”
Bad Vibes: Not too many right now, but like so many of his U.K. contemporaries (Fleetwood, Bobby Mac, Ludvig), he’s got to prove his “bottle” if he can get in contention.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, and he’s been one of LIV’s best players this year. We need this man back on tour.
15. Padraig Harrington
Good Vibes: Hell yes I’m serious! The man just keeps winning U.S. Senior Opens, giving fascinating 90-minute sound bytes and solidifying his place as the golf world’s favorite eccentric uncle. (But a good uncle, not an Uncle Gone Alarmingly Bad like [lawyers delete name].)
Bad Vibes: Oh sure, you’re going to argue that him missing the cut at the Scottish Open when he has to play with actual young golfers in their prime somehow disproves my point. Aren’t you?
Do they have a snowball’s chance in hell?: I’m sensing a classic Watson-at-Turnberry-style Indian summer, just for one weekend, where he comes down 18 with a shot to win. And then breaks Sky Sport’s camera because his post-round interview goes on too long.
14. Justin Rose
Good Vibes: If Paddy’s your nutty uncle, Rose is your dignified uncle, stern and upright but who will occasionally give you a cookie if you rake the entire lawn. And he never gives up on his dream, and in fact never seems to age.
Bad Vibes: I guess if you twist my arm, I feel he’s already had the best chances he’s going to get to win a second major in this late renaissance.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: I’d like to believe it! You couldn’t script a better final act for a career than winning the claret jug, but the luck and willpower it’s going to take are massive. But you know he wants it … I haven’t seen a jug be this important to someone since [Googles furiously] the Jerubbaal Jug from 1000 B.C. [Everyone boos me for going too far, throws me to the ground, kicks me.]
13. Tom Kim????
Good Vibes: An incredible return to form at the Scottish Open, where he captured his first PGA Tour win in almost three years, proving that no matter how old a guy is, you can’t count him out if he has grit, work ethic, and—[radio crackles in ear]—excuse me, I’m being told Tom Kim is still only 24. We regret the error.
Bad Vibes: The ghost of Y.E. Yang seems intent on never letting another South Korean golfer win a men’s major, which is harsh because Yang isn’t even dead.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Perhaps! We simply can’t rule it out.
12. Ludvig Aberg
Good Vibes: Thursday through Saturday.
Bad Vibes: Sunday.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, mostly because I like his vibes so much that I refuse to believe he can’t overcome the Sunday blues.
11. Collin Morikawa/Xander Schauffele/Justin Thomas
Good Vibes: I don’t have much here. They’re all in that same boat of “I fully believe they’re going to do something great again, but I also don’t think it’s going to happen right this minute.”
Bad Vibes: I told you I got nothing!
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: Buddy, I won’t repeat myself again! What do you want, more jug jokes?
10. Cameron Young 
[Photo: Richard Heathcote]
Good Vibes: Looked like the most impressive golfer in the universe until about two months ago, when Wyndham Clark obviously stole a pint of his blood and drank it to assume his powers.
Bad Vibes: Has to be very careful going to Catholic Church in England, in case King Henry VIII is still lurking around. That’s how you lose a head, Cam.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: It seems like his moment has passed, but then again, that’s what they said about St. Thomas More. And in fact, they were correct about More, as he was executed for his beliefs. In short, Cameron Young is a land of contrasts.
9. Sam Burns 
[Photo: Sean M. Haffey]
Good Vibes: Seemed more human and sympathetic than ever in the aftermath of his Shinnecock loss, with his honesty and emotion, and by the way, he was red-hot in that final round compared to the other contenders.
Bad Vibes: Can you believe he’s only 29? It feels like he’s been around at least 20 years. Between him and Scheffler, there must be some obscure law where the price of moving to Texas is that the state witch doctor ages you by 10 years. Me, I’m surprised they even have a state witch doctor.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: He does, and he probably deserves to be higher based on how hot he’s been, but his Open record is rough. He might be too American.
8. Robert MacIntyre
Good Vibes: Cometh the hour, cometh the man and when the Scottish Open rolled around, Bobby Mac was right there to contend. You gotta love that pluck, and on the heels of a good Travelers, you get the sense of a guy peaking at the right time.
Bad Vibes: His calm, almost too-serene demeanor makes him the player most likely to be a serial killer. Watch him the next time he talks, and you’ll see there are only two possibilities: Well-balanced man with a zen perspective, or a dozen bodies in the crawl space.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes. I’m ironclad on him finishing top three. IronBru, even. (Truly though, that’s a gross soda.)
7. Tommy Fleetwood 
[Photo: Warren Little]
Good Vibes: The native son! He’s from here! Grew up playing at Royal Birkdale (kinda sorta)! Everyone in the town has good memories of good ole Tommy Boy, the sweet kid who just loved his golf and made it big! WHOLESOME ‘TIL YOU PUKE!
Bad Vibes: Scrooge alert: Are you ready to be sick of hearing that $*&# by Wednesday morning?
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: I’m sure there are examples to contradict me, but I tend to think the “hometown” angle ends up putting a ton of pressure on the player without much benefit, a la Rory in Portrush. Can he win? Sure. Will he? Ehhhhh …
6. Rory McIlroy 
[Photo: Stuart Kerr/R&A]
Good Vibes: Compare his demeanour this year to last, and he looks like a guy who has found the key to happiness. Unfortunately, that key seems to be, “never, ever play a PGA Tour event.”
Bad Vibes: By 2028, Ponte Vedra may have to plant a chip in his brain and control him remotely so he’ll show up and say something nice about the Topeka Paw Patrol Classic.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, but he needs to activate himself, probably by having an amazing first or second round, because right now I’m not sure he wants it that badly.
5. Scottie Scheffler 
[Photo: Christian Petersen]
Good Vibes: For the most part, it has been a tremendous last month of vibes for Scheffler, who has been ever-so-slowly climbing the mountaintop all season and now seems incredibly close. Belief was low at Shinnecock, but he won me almost all the way back.
Bad Vibes: And yet, missing that playoff putt in the Travelers playoff was a downer, and if you were wondering whether it might have some medium-term negative effect, it’s not a great sign that he went to the Scottish Open and missed his first cut since the Taft administration.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: Yes, but there is the nagging feeling in the back of the skull that we’re squarely in the realm of “almost” and I should just put the kibosh all Scottie hopes until 2027. At which point you have to ask, what are we even living for?
4. Chris Gotterup 
[Photo: Ross Parker – SNS Group]
Good Vibes: We love a winner, don’t we folks? Get this guy near the top-five on a Sunday, he’s going to close the deal at a crazy high percentage. If Gotterup had Scottie’s game, he might have 12 majors already.
Bad Vibes: There really aren’t many, though I’m still working the case of the mysterious ø that he still used on his Instagram profile. He might be a Danish sleeper agent, or the fourth Hojgaard quadruplet.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: 100 percent. Last year, he kicked ass in his brief swing through the U.K., winning the Scottish and going solo third at the Open, and I have zero doubts that if he’s in contention, he’s got the stones to win a major.
3. Wyndham Clark 
[Photo: Ben Stansall]
Good Vibes: Has handled being hated by pretty much everyone as well as could be expected, give or take a couple references to “grape.” The British will probably be nicer to him, unless England loses the World Cup semifinal on Wednesday and he shows up the next day wearing an Argentina jersey in a reboot of his Canada hijinx. He’d get the ole shiv in the guts then, but it might be worth it.
Bad Vibes: Cucked by Baker Mayfield, but honestly, he kind of owned that pretty well too.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell?: I called him inevitable at Shinnecock and rated him first in vibes, and while he’s not quite that level here, I’m telling you, don’t be surprised if he pulls off the open double.
2. The Norwegians 
[Photo: Augusta National]
Good Vibes: Look, if I can’t pick up on the major vibe the universe is putting down over the last few months, can I even call myself a vibesman? Viktor Hovland beating Scottie at the Travelers in front of his traveling countrymen, Kristoffer Reitan taking down the Truist, the whole Viking row chant, and, of course, the gift to all mankind that is know as Erling Haaland leading the Norwegian national team on an historic run. It’s the summer of Norway, baby!
Bad Vibes: Only two: First, Norway finally lost in the World Cup in a rigged match and, second, I’d bet my entire life savings that Hovland thinks aliens built the pyramids. (When in fact it was Old Tom Morris.)
Do they have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? I won’t lie, it’s going to take every ounce of Norway vibes they can muster, but to echo the proud words of the Norwegians themselves, ØHH JÅH FÖR SHOÆR WE KØN WEEN DÅR KLÆRET JØG!
1. Matt Fitzpatrick (and I’ll throw in Alex for free) 
[Photo: Ross Parker – SNS Group]
Good Vibes: Absolute beast of a season, for the man on the PGA Tour you are least likely to call an “absolute beast.”
Bad Vibes: He’s in the Cam Young zone of guys where if he doesn’t win a major this year, it will feel like a missed opportunity. He’ll have to punish himself by taking away the one grain of sugar he saves in a special jar for his morning tea on Christmas.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: Oh yes. That special sense of momentum and energy that guided me to my Clark pick at Shinnecock has fired me out of a metaphorical laser cannon straight at the man who will win his native open and instantly become the greatest English golfer since Faldo. It’s as sure as ham.
