With one week left before the Masters and the year’s first major, the PGA Tour gathers at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks course for the 104th edition of the Valero Texas Open. This tournament was founded in 1922 and is the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the San Antonio area since its origins and has relocated to numerous courses before finding its current home in 2010 when Adam Scott was victorious.
TPC San Antonio winds through the narrow corridors of the Cibolo Canyons, just north of Texas’s second-most populous city, San Antonio. With fairways framed by dense brush and mature oak trees, the course demands precision off the tee. Elevated greens with tricky pin positions place a premium on approach play, while one of the most challenging sets of par 5s on tour adds further scoring resistance. Combine that with the ever-present gusty Texas winds, and the Valero Texas Open consistently ranks as one of the tougher tests on the PGA Tour, playing as the 11th most demanding course with golfers averaging +0.26 strokes per round.
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Off the tee, the Oaks Course presents a demanding mix of narrow, tree-lined corridors that punish inaccuracy while rewarding players who can position themselves strategically for optimal approach angles. One notable change this year is the rough being grown to three inches, up from its typical 2.25 inches, placing an even greater premium on accuracy. Keeping the ball in play off the tee, dialing in precise approaches to the proper green quadrants and capitalizing on scoring opportunities on the par 5s are all essential ingredients for success here.
There has been a wide variety of past winners at the Valero Texas Open, ranging from heavy favorites like Jordan Spieth in 2021 to shocking underdogs. Corey Conners won as a qualifier in 2019, while Andrew Landry captured the title at 200-1 odds in 2018, and Steven Bowditch triumphed in 2014 at 350-1. Scoring has also varied significantly depending on the wind. Winning totals have ranged from Conners reaching 20-under par in 2019 to Brian Harman finishing at 9-under par last year.
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In the final week of preparation before the Masters, many of the PGA Tour’s top players look to stay sharp with one last competitive start. The Valero Texas Open field features nine of the top-20 ranked players in the world rankings, headlined by Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Robert MacIntyre and Alex Noren. Brian Harman returns to defend his title after winning by three shots over Ryan Gerard last year. The biggest prize at stake for the winner this week is a ticket into the Masters field if they are not already exempt.
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price for DraftKings contests at the 2026 Valero Texas Open.
$9,000+ range Play: Robert MacIntyre, $9,900 
Tracy Wilcox
With left-handers winning each of the past two editions here, Robert MacIntyre stands out as the strongest candidate to extend that to three straight. His form is clearly trending upward, highlighted by an impressive fourth-place finish at the Players Championship, where he gained strokes across every major category. Looking at comparable setups, MacIntyre has thrived on courses that demand elite ball-striking—similar to TPC San Antonio—finishing inside the top 11 in five of his past eight starts. And on a course where windy conditions are a regular occurrence, MacIntyre ranks as one of the best players in moderate to gusty winds.
Robert MacIntyre’s last eight tournaments on courses that are difficult to gain strokes ball-striking.
Sign up for the industry’s leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal! Play: Jordan Spieth, $9,500
While Jordan Spieth hasn’t recently flashed the ceiling typically needed to justify the sixth-highest salary, he’s quietly found a strong level of consistency in 2026. He’s posted three top-12 finishes in his past four starts and has missed just two cuts over the past 13 months. TPC San Antonio is also a venue where Spieth has shown legitimate upside, highlighted by his win at the Valero Texas Open in 2021 and a runner-up finish back in 2015. A key factor behind his recent uptick has been improved iron play, as he ranks fourth in strokes gained on approach over the past month in this field.
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Fade: Collin Morikawa, $9,400
In a week without a clear fade among the upper tier, I’ll side with the primary injury concern in Collin Morikawa, who recently withdrew from The Players. Prior to the back issue, Morikawa was one of the hottest players on tour, consistently contending with elite ball-striking. However, this is a difficult spot to fully trust him. On a demanding layout like TPC San Antonio, and with an eye likely toward getting right for the Masters, there’s added risk that he may not be pushing at full capacity. In this range, it’s a spot worth taking a stand against the uncertainty.
$8,000+ range Play: Denny McCarthy, $8,200 
Mike Mulholland
All arrows are pointing up for Denny McCarthy, who has come close to breaking through for his first PGA Tour win on multiple occasions over the past few years. After a slow start to the season, he’s beginning to find his form again with a T-26 at the Valspar Championship followed by a strong T-12 finish in Houston last week. His iron play, in particular, has been elite—gaining 8.8 strokes on approach across his last three starts. That’s a major signal heading into a course like TPC San Antonio, which is one of the more predictive venues on tour. McCarthy has thrived here historically, gaining the third-most strokes at this course since 2016 at an impressive rate of 1.82 per round. That includes a playoff loss to Akshay Bhatia here in 2024.
Fade: J.J. Spaun, $8,600
With four missed cuts and only one finish inside the top 40 this year, Spaun is nowhere near his impressive form of last year. Putting has been the main culprit as he ranks 121st in the field with the flatstick this year losing 0.87 strokes per round.
$7,000+ range Play: Thorbjorn Olesen, $7,800 
Jordan Bank
On a course where elite ball-striking is essential, Thorbjorn Olesen ranks 13th in this field in average strokes gained, picking up 0.81 per round this season. He carried that form into Houston last week, gaining 5.9 strokes on approach en route to a 14th-place finish. His track record at TPC San Antonio is also encouraging, with finishes of fifth last year and 14th in 2024. If he can pair his current iron play with even an average performance on the greens, he should have a strong chance to be in the mix come Sunday.
$6,000+ range Play: Andrew Putnam, $6,800 
Jared C. Tilton
Andrew Putnam stands out as an excellent value play this week thanks to the consistently high floor he provides. He’s made four straight cuts, including grinding through last week in Houston on what was a poor course fit. That reliability carries over to TPC San Antonio, where he’s made six of his past eight cuts, including a pair of top-14 finishes. His accuracy off the tee, dependable short game and occasional spikes with his irons make him a strong, safe option to round out lineups.
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Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
