Scottie Scheffler has changed the landscape of outright betting over his torrid stretch the past two seasons—winning at a 32.4 percent clip across his 12 wins, not even counting his victories at the Olympics and the Hero World Challenge. It might be tough to envision a scenario where Scheffler doesn’t cap off this five-victory, two-major season with his second straight FedEx Cup title. But our Golf Digest betting panel still has identified some value to invest in with this season finale at East Lake.
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The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of East Lake, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Tour Championship:
Tour Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Scottie Scheffler (+170, BetMGM) — This won’t shock anybody following our column all year. But why would you not continue riding Scottie if you’ve been hitting these bets the past three months? He’s the best player in the world by a significant margin. He’s on a heater, and it won’t stop this week.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: JJ Spaun (33-1, Bet365) — Southwind is a great comp for East Lake after the redesign with its difficult driving and massive penalty for missing the fairway. We just witnessed Spaun navigate Southwind immaculately all while trumping Scottie on a Sunday. Just needs his putter to heat back up a bit.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Russell Henley (20-1, FanDuel) — East Lake is best-suited for accurate driving and elite iron play, which sums up Henley’s game. Henley is also a top-tier putter from within 15 feet, a key range both for strokes gained to stabilize and at East Lake, specifically.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Scottie Scheffler (+170, BetMGM) — The best player in the world realizes the moment. Scottie Scheffler is not going to let this one get away. Eight players in 18 years have multiple playoff wins in the same postseason campaign. Scheffler will make it nine in 19 years and become the first repeat FedEx Cup champion.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Russell Henley (20-1, FanDuel) — I’d put this in the without Scottie Scheffler market, so more like odds of 12-1. But Henley actually edges out Scottie Scheffler in SG/total at East Lake over their past 24 rounds, even with Scheffler’s win last year and his great start the year before that.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Sam Burns, winner without Scottie Scheffler (20-1, DraftKings) — Burns is starting to heat up again just in time to make one final bid for a captain’s pick on Keegan Bradley’s U.S. Ryder Cup team. A victory would go a long way in helping his case, the only problem is his best bud, Scottie Scheffler, will be standing in his way. A second-place finish, and some lobbying from Scheffler, might be enough to get him to Bethpage, and it would be enough to cash this bet.
Past results: We now have 12 individual victories in 2025 after our tour coach’s sixth outright winner this season (Scottie Scheffler).
Tour Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Harry Hall (50-1, FanDuel) — Not too many people in the Tour Championship would be considered longshots, but Harry Hall’s ball-striking can keep him near the top of the leader board. He’s been on fire—finishing outside the top 25 only once in his past 11 starts. His putting is lights out, too, and he has extra motivation to make a big impression with captain Luke Donald this week.
Mayo: Cameron Young (33-1, FanDuel) — Notched his first win at a Donald Ross design at the beginning of the month and has the perfect combo of spike driving and putting to challenge for the top of the board. In a 30-man field, Young is one of the better values.
Gdula: Ben Griffin (40-1, FanDuel) — Griffin has the second-highest strokes gained floor in the field over everyone’s past 50 rounds, and he has raised his ceiling in recent rounds (10th over the last 36). Griffin also has some of the best recent relevant form in terms of both ball-striking and short game.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (33-1, FanDuel) — I wouldn’t go too far down the board unless you’re taking a flier in the without Scottie market. Young is probably worth the gamble though at these odds with his hot play over the past month. He’s top five in SG/off the tee and SG/putting, which could translate to success at East Lake.
Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (33-1, FanDuel) — Another guy looking to impress Bradley, Young could seriously strengthen his case by taking down World No. 1 at the Tour Championship. With six finishes of T-11 or better in his last 11 starts, there are few guys hotter than the Wake Forest alum on tour right now.
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Tour Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Patrick Cantlay (25-1, FanDuel) — Only one top-10 finish in his past eight starts along with two missed cuts … it would sort of be out of nowhere if Cantlay won this week.
Mayo: Patrick Cantlay (25-1, FanDuel) — His odds are just too short to back. Most of the names directly behind him have a much better chance at winning.
Gdula: Patrick Cantlay (25-1, FanDuel) — Cantlay’s form isn’t really bad, but his putting numbers are inflated, according to the underlying distance splits he possesses, and he owns a bottom-four ceiling over the past three months among everyone else in the field, which isn’t a winning recipe.
Stewart: Collin Morikawa (28-1, DraftKings) — Collin Morikawa posted the low 72-hole score at the 2024 Tour Championship (22-under par). East Lake is a perfect fit for Morikawa’s accuracy. Unfortunately, Collin has lost a bit of that consistency. Since traveling to Scotland, Morikawa has missed two cuts and finished T-33 and T-22 in the playoffs. The short game and putter have been incredibly inconsistent. Take those struggles to these greens, and I’ll avoid the career strokes gained leader at East Lake.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (25-1, FanDuel) — It’s tough to pick on any of the top guys, but JT is the easy one to fade based on his struggles off the tee over the past 24 rounds. He seems to always find a way to play well at East Lake, but he’s seventh to last in my model this week, so I can’t get behind any JT love.
Powers, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (28-1, DraftKings) — Despite his stellar iron play continuing to show up, he continues to sink down leader boards. Perhaps the most fascinating captain’s pick discussion not enough people are having right now. Another down week from Morikawa would cap off an ugly post-Masters swoon that has seen him finish in the top 10 once in the last 11 events.
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Tour Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Chris Gotterup (+100) over Akshay Bhatia (Bet365) — Gotterup has been super hot, and East Lake should be a good course fit with his elite driving distance.
Mayo: JJ Spaun (-110) over Hideki Matsuyama (Coolbet) — Hideki can always spike with his irons and get ya, but his driving has been so bad this year (lost strokes off the tee in seven of eight starts), so it’s tough not to fade him at a driver-heavy course.
Gdula: Justin Rose (-120) over Shane Lowry (FanDuel) — Lowry’s form has tanked over the past three months while Rose is on the rise for a gap of roughly two-thirds of a stroke per round in Rose’s favor over the past three months.
Stewart: Maverick McNealy (-110) over Keegan Bradley (DraftKings) — Keegan Bradley was passing out Ryder Cup tickets on Monday and revealing team uniforms. In one week, Keegan is making his six captain’s selections. Those decisions, phone calls, the Today Show … it all adds up to a major distraction. Maverick McNealy just finished third at the BMW and still has a chance to be one of those choices next Wednesday (if he plays great). I believe McNealy will stay motivated and win this matchup this weekend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: J.J. Spaun (-110) over Justin Thomas (FanDuel) — If you’re a course history truther, this will make you cringe with JT’s elite course history and Spaun making his debut. But Spaun has been a top 10 player off the tee and on approach over the past 24 rounds, way better than JT’s ball-striking numbers.
Powers, Golf Digest: Harry Hall (+100) over Corey Conners (DraftKings) — Sure seems like a case of “wrong guy favored” here. Hall hasn’t missed a cut since the Players in March with eight top-20 finishes along the way, including a sixth-place finish last week, matching his best of 2025. Conners, meanwhile, has finished outside the top 35 in each of the first two playoff events.
Matchup Results from the BMW Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Ryan Fox (+105) over Thomas Detry); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Harris English (-120) over Akshay Bhatia); Powers: 1 for 1 (Ben Griffin (-120) over Keegan Bradley); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Patrick Cantlay (-125) over Justin Thomas); Lack: 1 for 1 (Xander Schauffele (-150) over Justin Thomas); Stewart, tour coach: 0 for 1.
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 14-14-2 (up 0.21 units); Lack: 17-14-1 (up 1.66 units); Hennessey: 17-15-1 (up 0.24 units); Powers: 16-16-1 (down 0.62 units); Stewart: 14-18-1 (down 4.55 units); Mayo: 13-17-2 (down 3.28 units); Gdula: 12-19-2 (down 8.48 units)
Tour Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Hideki Matsuyama (+175, FanDuel) — Hideki’s been playing very consistent golf, and that should continue this week. His elite ball-striking and driving is due to get him near the top of another leader board.
Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (-125, FanDuel) — It’s my turn on the Tommy train for the final event of the 2025 season. It’s undeniable he’s playing well, so he should be in the mix Sunday. Maybe he can start a little after the leaders and post a low number before he realizes he’s in the lead?
Gdula: Harry Hall (+220, FanDuel) — Hall’s short game has been good enough for long enough that we can trust the data, and while his ball-striking isn’t on par, he’s capable of some top-10 approach weeks when he’s on.
Stewart: Cameron Young (+160, FanDuel) — In his past three starts, Cameron Young has finished 11th at the BMW, fifth at the St. Jude and won the Wyndham. That Greensboro victory stands out. Not just because he won by six, but because it happened on a target-driven Bermudagrass layout. Cam’s game fits, and with Ryder Cup captain’s picks looming large, he will be driven to perform in Atlanta.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Harris English (+190, FanDuel) — The top-10 market is bleak in the 30-player field, but I can get behind these odds with the former Georgia Bulldog, who’s already qualified for the Ryder Cup team and can play freely this week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (+150, DraftKings) — If the streak doesn’t end here, it simply wasn’t meant to be (and I should probably be kicked off the panel). Hovland has a win and a fifth-place at East Lake and is coming off a very strong tee-to-green performance at the BMW. Bring it home for me, King Vik.
Top-10 results from the BMW Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Sam Burns, +260); Lack: 1 for 1 (Ludvig Aberg, +180); Everyone else: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 11 for 33 (up 20.3 units); Tour coach: 8 for 30 (up 14.3 units); Lack: 10 for 33 (up 13.1 units); Stewart: 11 for 33 (up 8.55 units); Hennessey: 7 for 32 (up 7.5 units); Mayo: 7 for 33 (up 9.87 units); Powers: 0 for 33 (down 33 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
