Golf fans don’t need any numbers to know Rory McIlroy hit an absurdly high number of memorable shots over the weekend at Augusta National on his way to winning his first Masters and completing the career Grand Slam. It had to be one of the most jaw-dropping highlight reels ever put together at a major. And, yes, it canceled out an unusual amount of lowlights as well as McIlroy overcame four double bogeys during the week.
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But after making his final one of those on No. 13 during the final round (and adding one more bogey on 14) to lose his lead in the tournament, McIlroy put together a particularly jaw-dropping stretch of approach shots. There was this boomerang 7-iron from 205 yards on the par-5 15th that CBS’ Jim Nantz called “The shot of a lifetime!”:
Poised to make eagle. Rory McIlroy goes for glory on No. 15. #themasters pic.twitter.com/hAM0zxnkM7
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 13, 2025
Unfortunately, McIlroy missed the eagle putt, but then he hit another great shot on the par-3 16th to that tough back-right position. And once again missed the putt. But on 17, he hit one even closer to essentially tap-in range and converted the birdie to take the lead:
Rory McIlroy hits it to two feet on No. 17. #themasters pic.twitter.com/zY6tdgqZ13
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 13, 2025
Incredible stuff. But it gets even more impressive after statistician Lou Stagner crunched the numbers to show how rare it is to see three such approach shots hit that close in a row. Have a look:
What Rory did on 15, 16 and 17 in the final round is BONKERS. 1 in 28,700 chance.
🤯🤯🤯
#15▶️207 yards to 6 feet
#16▶️170 yards to 9 feet
#17▶️196 yards to 2 feetThe chances a tour pro hits each of those shots as close as he did:
#15▶️1.99%
#16▶️7.91%
#17▶️0.37%The… pic.twitter.com/I2jgYCH0yP
— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) April 15, 2025
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As you can see, Stagner puts the odds of a PGA Tour pro hitting three consecutive approach shots like that at about one in 28,700(!) chances. And that’s under normal conditions and not factoring in that this was during the final round of the Masters. And with the career Grand Slam on the line. Crazy stuff. You can easily make the case that these were the three best consecutive approach shots in golf history. (And while he missed the green on 18, he came back in a playoff to stuff another amazing approach to set up the winning birdie.)
For some reason, people had questions/critiques about Stagner’s post. So he dug in more with this follow-up tweet that shows McIlroy had never even come close to doing something like this in his entire career.
To everyone saying:
“Of course he did, it’s Rory, it's not really that big of a deal…”
Let’s add some context.
In his entire career, Rory has had 355 instances where he faced three approach shots in a row from 165 to 212 yards to the hole.
Not once did he hit all three shots… https://t.co/6W8FjnBRJJ
— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) April 16, 2025
And yet, somehow, McIlroy was able to summon this iron magic at the absolute most important time. Under unimaginable pressure. Truly remarkable. Again, we didn’t need any numbers to tell us Rory was doing something special, but sometimes they can make us appreciate what we watched even more.
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This article was originally published on golfdigest.com