There’s something funny about this clip, but more than that, it’s fascinating. It offers a glimpse for the rest of us into the mind of one of the best players of all time.
So many amateur golfers do the same thing. They zap the pin, pull a club, and more than 70 percent of the time, miss the green short. But listen to Phil. There’s a better way of doing this. There’s more for us to learn.
Ultimately it comes down to five pieces that pros try to fit together to uncover the perfect number.
We talked to pros and caddies, and dove into the research to explain how much each of these pieces affects your shots.
In the latest episode of Golf Digest‘s Game Plan, we uncover what the pros know, and explain how you can use these same five tools to form your own smarter game plan…
Watch the latest episode of Golf Digest‘s Game Plan:
First, some basics
This is what a golf shot looks like: the apex is the highest point the golf ball reaches as it flies. The carry distance is the entire distance that the ball travels in the air. The landing angle is the angle at which the golf ball returns to earth, and the run-out number is the distance the ball travels along the ground after it lands.
Pros care about all of these things, but they really care about their carry numbers – the distance the ball flies in the air. That’s why you see them on the range and on the course with one or sometimes two launch monitors. Dialling in their carry numbers is priority No.1, and to do this, they need to consider five key factors.
1. Temperature
Temperature has a huge effect on carry distance, but not always in the way you think.
Trackman measured the effects of temperature on golf shots and found that golfers gain or lose one metre for every few degrees above or below about 21 degrees Celsius. So a ball that travels 160 metres in 21-degree weather will travel closer to 155 metres in 15-degree weather or 165 in 32-degree weather.
The tricky thing is that the temperature doesn’t stay the same. It gets warmer or colder as you play, so you have to keep recalculating. You’re also probably removing or adding layers, too. More layers can shorten and slow down your swing, which can make the distance loss even more severe.
Temperature fluctuates more wildly where the air is thinner. That’s why the desert gets really cold in the mornings and then heats up really hot in the afternoons, which again can affect distances during the round itself.
2. Air density
Air density, or how thick the air is, is the second big puzzle piece.
If you’re at sea level, you’ve got more moisture in the air, which means the air is thicker, so the ball doesn’t fly through it as easily. If you’re at high altitude, the air is thinner, so the ball flies through the air faster.
According to Trackman, golfers get a 6 percent distance boost from their shots at 1,500 metres (5,000 feet). For an average golfer, this means a 150-metre shot will go about 159 metres at 1,500 metres.
Golfers with faster swings get closer to 10 percent more distance, while slower swings get closer to 5 percent. And most of these gains aren’t spread evenly. The biggest boost comes with your middle and long irons because a little extra spin is good in the thinner air.
It’s why you see some crazy things in the PGA Tour’s West Coast events, like Rory McIlroy’s stock 4-iron in 27-degree weather at the old Mexico City event, which is played at 2,300 metres (7,600 feet), going more than 250 metres (272 yards).
3. Lie and spin
Pros really stress out about their spin numbers. It’s the third and maybe most important puzzle piece. When they get it wrong, it can really mess things up.
Spin rate can influence how high the ball apexes and how quickly it lands when it gets down to earth. And spin rate can vary wildly based on different factors.
If the ball is sitting on top of long rough, usually with a bit of grass between the ball and the club, that’s what pros call a flier lie. It comes off with less backspin and flies like a hot knuckleball. It can fly really sideways.
Golf balls that are wet can often act like flyers, too, because the ball slips up the clubface rather than grabbing the grooves and spinning. That’s why you see someone like Bryson DeChambeau spraying his golf balls with water because he’s measuring how much the spin rate drops and therefore how much longer it goes.
There’s stuff that adds backspin too, mainly when you hit the ball on the heel, which can cause the ball to balloon higher into the air, stop quicker and travel shorter. It’s why McIlroy misses his drive short right into a bunker, and Justin Thomas asks if he spun it.
As for how you navigate this stuff? Truthfully, it’s some real guesswork. The big thing is spotting those hot knuckleball situations when you see them.
4. Elevation
Backspin doesn’t just affect how the ball flies, but also how much it rolls when it gets on the ground. That’s the run-out number, and the fourth essential piece. You can see Collin Morikawa littering his Augusta National yardage book with different run-out numbers.
The spin, combined with the angle at which the ball lands and the firmness of the turf, determines how much the ball runs out. This can get really difficult when the ground gets very firm, as I asked Bryson about at the US Open.
But on a normal day-to-day basis, pros generally operate on a 1-to-1 rule. If the green is one metre below where you’re hitting from, your ball is going to carry about one metre further. If the green is one metre above where you’re hitting from, your ball is going to travel about one metre shorter, but you can make up some of this with your run-out.
When the green you’re aiming for is above you, the ball approaches from a shallower landing angle, which means it’ll carry less but roll out more. When the green is below you, it’ll carry more but roll out less. Again, how much depends on ground firmness and spin, which is why the 1-to-1 rule is a good benchmark.
5. Wind
The fifth and final piece is wind. Wind terrorises golfers more than anything else, and it changes a lot based on the situation. The big thing to remember is that headwinds hurt almost twice as much as tailwinds help. That’s because headwinds balloon the ball into the air, which means they fly higher and land more steeply, which means they roll less.
Trackman says that a 140-yard shot that’s 15mph into the wind will travel about 20 yards shorter, but the same 140-yard shot downwind will travel only 10 yards longer, or about 150 yards.
At the Open Championship last year, I wrote about the broadcast’s new graphic. It’s hard to create an exact formula because there are so many variables, but during the broadcast, some new tech estimated that every mile per hour into wind added about a yard-and-a-half. Either way, when in doubt, overestimate shots into the wind, and underestimate downwind shots.
Putting all these pieces together gives pros the adjusted number they’re looking for. For the rest of us, it’s really just about understanding some of these elements and making educated guesses.
So the next time you find yourself staring down a green, feel the air around you, look at the land ahead of you. Respect the breeze on your face. Connect with the course you’re playing. It may tell you even more than the number you see flashing back at you.
