CHARLOTTE — I hate to brag, but this vibes guide is currently a perfect 100 percent in 2025 at having the winner somewhere on the list. Back in April, I had Rory McIlroy as the 41st most likely player to take home the green jacket, and lo and behold, he pulled it off. It will probably go down as one of the great calls in golf history.
Now we’re on to Quail Hollow, and the year’s second major at the PGA Championship, which means it’s time to revive the franchise. As I explained last time, this guide is for those of you have not watched a minute of golf this year and want a quick catch-up, and also for the diehards who watch and read everything, but are sick of all the posts you see with useful information. And if you’re an agent looking to get mad at a writer for making jokes, this is still a great place to be.
So if you want actual analysis, go here. But if you’re in it for the gut instinct, shoot-from-the-hip, wrong to wrong-ish vibes, let’s count down the 41 top contenders in Charlotte.
41. Rory McIlroy
Good Vibes: Just won the Masters to complete the career slam, has absolutely dominated at Quail Hollow throughout his career, and is walking this earth as a man unburdened. He may never lose another major again. This could not be more perfect for him.
Bad Vibes: Maybe what we witnessed at Augusta wasn’t real. Maybe he lost again. Maybe the joy and catharsis were a cruel dream, and you’re about to wake up. WHATEVER YOU DO, DON’T WAKE UP.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? No. It is impossible to fathom a world in which Rory wins not one, but two majors in the same year. The Pinehurst Tragedy is too close in memory; no matter what happened at Augusta, there is still no right for anyone to hope
40. Michael Block
Keyur Khamar
Good Vibes: He’s back, baby! The man who cannot believe his good fortune, and will spin around, mouth agape, performing his amazement for all to see. You better believe I’m including him on this list. I refuse to believe Blockie is a one-hit wonder.
Bad Vibes: Comparatively, not very good at golf. A one-hit wonder if ever a one-hit wonder existed.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Definitely not, but I pray he holes out once so we can get that iconic look one more time. The cult of Blockie will never die. Blockie himself may never die.
39. Dustin Johnson
Good Vibes: Two top-10 finishes on LIV this year, meaning that his golf career may not be quite as dead as I thought. And I thought it was pretty dead.
Bad Vibes: Has the look of a man who is annoyed he’s not on a boat listening to country music and drinking the light American beer that tastes the most like polluted water.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? He’s got as much chance as Gretzky has to suit up in 2025 and win a Stanley Cup. And by Gretzky, I mean Paulina.
38. Phil Mickelson
Good Vibes: Nobody expected him to win the PGA at Kiawah at age 50 four years ago, so why not now?
Bad Vibes: After that win at Kiawah, he said, “It’s very possible this is the last tournament I ever win,” and that appears to be correct.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? I can’t help but think of another old boy who got a big win late in life and then tried it again four years later. That’s right: Joe Biden. You could almost talk yourself into it, but then it quickly devolved into a spectacle of national humiliation. I think that’s roughly where we’re headed with Phil this week.
37. Sam Burns
Good Vibes: Scottie Scheffler complimented his putting at his press conference this week, calling to mind a not-so-distant past when Burns was a truly scary presence on tour, highlighted by that time he beat Scheffler himself at Colonial. In 2021 and 2022, he was at least on the path to being a killer. And he’s been showing a little form lately.
Bad Vibes: Stinks at majors. A full 8/10 on the Joaquin Niemann Scale.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Nah. It just hasn’t come together to the necessary degree, and it’s hard to find a path there. And I hate to use stats in a vibes post, but he’s nowhere near good enough off the tee at a course that demands it.
36. Will Zalatoris
Orlando Ramirez
Good Vibes: Seems healthy, and he keeps making (most) cuts, which is all positive after the microdiscectomy surgery that required a complete retooling of his swing.
Bad Vibes: So far, he’s kind of on the Derrick Rose trajectory, where he returns successfully from a major injury and can still compete with the best players in the world, but isn’t quite the mind-blowing talent he was before.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Nope. A missed cut at the Masters seemed to confirm that he’s nowhere close to his torrid major form circa ’21 and ’22, and nothing we’ve seen indicates that it’ll be any easier to make the weekend at Quail.
35. Cam Smith
Good Vibes: I still remember St. Andrews, and how unflappable he looked. Remember the putt past the bunker?
Bad Vibes: Currently trailing several golfers you have never heard of in the LIV Golf standings. We’re talking fellows with names like “Gurm Temorah” and “Jack-Jack Alonzo.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Look, give the guy some credit—he’s coming off three straight top-10 finishes at LIV. But for me, he realllly reads like a guy who has lost his edge, especially with two missed cuts in his last two majors. This has to be the top example of a line I saw on Reddit, “LIV is the witness protection program for professional golfers.
34. Robert MacIntyre
Ross Parker – SNS Group
Good Vibes: Scottish.
Bad Vibes: Maybe not Scottish enough? Could we juice up the Scottish by maybe 25 percent? In my book, you can’t be too Scottish.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? No, but I actually think his relative strength off the tee could see him to a better finish than people are expecting. And every once in a while, we see him step up at big events, like his top-10 at the Players this year. I’m not exactly intrigued, but I’m monitoring.
33. Sergio Garcia
Good Vibes: Still a top-four LIV player.
Bad Vibes: Feels like he’s due to kick a trash can into a lake, or something.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? This should be a yes on paper, but it’s still a pretty emphatic no. He’s been pretty terrible in his last two LIV events, and his major performance has been flat-out abysmal for going on eight years. It would take a miracle for him to be remotely in contention.
32. Keegan Bradley
Jared C. Tilton
Good Vibes: He seems to be thriving in the Ryder Cup captain’s role, and it’s ideally suited for a guy like him as a bridge to getting to know the American players on a personal level in a way he never did in his younger days.
Bad Vibes: It still seems like such a mistake to invest so much of the captaincy into a guy who could make the team, and it’s easy to see this getting stressful as the year continues.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? A pretty definitive no. He’s playing very steady, but also very unspectacular golf, and it’s going to take a gear he doesn’t have to compete at Quail.
31. Si Woo Kim
Good Vibes: If they gave out major titles for finishing between 15th and 25th place, Si Woo would be Jack Nicklaus by now.
Bad Vibes: So far under the radar at this point that he might actually be underground.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: “Sneaky top 10” is the ceiling here.
30. Akshay Bhatia
Good Vibes: The guy’s a flat-out gamer who seems like he’s more often in the mix at the bigger tournaments. Even at Augusta, where he finished T-42, he looked so dangerous for a couple days.
Bad Vibes: Nowhere near good enough off the tee for this course. Quail is worst-case scenario for him.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell?: No. The big boys are going to leave him in the dust.
29. Tony Finau
Good Vibes: Seems like the kind of guy who would be good on this course.
Bad Vibes: Has been so underwhelming and nondescript the last year that you’d think he joined LIV.
Does he have a snowball’s chance in hell? Cannot see it. We got a glimpse of the old Tony at Riviera earlier this year (T-5), but since then it’s been pretty uninspiring.
28. Joaquin Niemann
Thananuwat Srirasant
Good Vibes: Still the special-est boy on LIV.
Bad Vibes: He is so bad at majors that earlier in this post, I named a scale measuring badness in majors after him. Until he can break through with at least a top 10, there’s a feeling of illegitimacy about him that he won’t be able to shake.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Forget it, Joaquin: It’s MajorTown.
27. Keith Mitchell
Good Vibes: The preppy aesthetic works great on Mitchell, mostly because his personality is fun and emotional enough to offset it. I asked a few friends about him last week, and we agree we like the guy more with each passing tournament.
Bad Vibes: Despite strong play lately, still hasn’t won since the Honda in ’19, and his major performance has always been lackluster.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? He can definitely get in contention this week, but finishing the job is too big of an ask, even as one of the game’s best drivers. He gets my vote as “first round leader who finishes 17th.”
26. Maverick McNealy
Good Vibes: Still the coolest name in golf.
Bad Vibes: As someone who was shocked to find out he cracked the top 10 in the world earlier this year, I’m sad to say he has been supplanted by the more credible but less thrilling Shane Lowry.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Soft no. This isn’t the kind of course (Sea Island, Hilton Head) that he thrives on; he’ll be outgunned from the word go.
25. Daniel Berger
Good Vibes: Did you know he’s been outside the top 25 exactly once in the last nine events? I didn’t either, until I just looked it up. And I’m going to forget it at some point in the next two or three sentences.
Bad Vibes: I don’t know, man. I’ll be honest, I don’t have a ton to say about Daniel Berger.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? The vaguest chance possible. But you can’t deny that the man is playing some golf lately. The man’s golfing his ball. (Royal Tenenbaum voice): I’m talking about taking it out and chopping it up! (I officially have no idea what I’m talking about anymore, and we’re only on No. 25. Help me.)
24. Max Homa
Oisin Keniry/R&A
Good Vibes: Don’t forget, the man has won at Quail Hollow. It happened in 2019, when he absolutely dominated en route to a three-shot win. Plus, he’s made the cut in three straight events, which may not sound like much but is certainly better than missing five straight cuts, which he did right before that.
Bad Vibes: Has to watch his former caddie Joe Greiner in a happier marriage with Justin Thomas. Possibly getting killed with alimony, though I’m not sure how that works in golf.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? The past successes at Quail (which includes a 4-0 record at the 2022 Presidents Cup) give him a sliver of hope, but it’s just a sliver; his form’s not quite in the dumpster, but it has only recently slithered out.
23. Jordan Spieth
Good Vibes: He says his wrist is getting healthier after surgery! He shot a 62 at the Byron Nelson on Sunday! 2025 is obviously the year of the career slam, and he could complete his own here! (Which means Phil will win the U.S. Open.) He’s almost back!
Bad Vibes: Still the most likely to get in trouble off the tee and have to hit his approach out of an armadillo’s mouth, then have a 20-minute discussion with Greller beforehand about how the armadillo’s incisors will affect the trajectory.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Yes, he legitimately does, which is new and exciting and terrifying, like when you’re a kid and you can’t resist touching the lightly electrified fence at the neighbor’s farm, knowing you’re going to get a jolt that is equal parts thrilling and painful. (Wait, am I the only one who did that?)
22. Patrick Reed
Harry How
Good Vibes: It truly felt like he would have won the Masters, or at least forced his way into a playoff, if not for an uncharacteristic three-putt on 13 from birdie range.
Bad Vibes: Can’t think of any.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Maybe? The Masters finish came a little bit out of nowhere after a fairly mediocre LIV season, and it’s tempting to write that off as a guy with specialized experience on a known course amid a strong but smaller field. But since then he’s improved his position on LIV with a T-4 finish in Korea, so you’ve got to keep an eye on him.
21. Viktor Hovland
Good Vibes: He still has that win at the Valspar in his back pocket, fluky as it seems in hindsight. Still the biggest Norwegian heavy metal fan on tour, among the subset of guys who routinely ponder the existence of extraterrestrials.
Bad Vibes: Seems to have zero belief in himself, which I’m told can be a hindrance in a game like golf.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Sure, but only in the very loosest sense. I can’t in good conscience call him any more than the shortest of the longshots (or longest of the short shots?), but I also can’t ignore that his last two PGA Championships ended in top-three finishes. There’s at least a trace of magic with Viktor in this particular tournament.
20. Wyndham Clark
Good Vibes: I believe the shadow of a good player still lurks within him.
Bad Vibes: If he were a fish, he’d be a flounder. It has not been a banner 2025, at least by his recent standards.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Very loosely, sure, in the sense that he has the weapons in his arsenal. But this is all highly theoretical, and after a 63rd- place finish at the Truist things seem more than a little dire.
19. Corey Conners
Good Vibes: Almost maddeningly consistent. I can’t remember the last time he won, but he’s a top-10 machine.
Bad Vibes: Has never had those killer vibes, and I swear this isn’t me being biased against Canadians. I watch “Shoresy” and everything.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Let’s imagine a scenario where he’s close to the lead on Saturday and/or Sunday, which is certainly plausible considering his form and his course fit. Do we really think he’s sealing the deal? I’m still leaning “no” here.
18. Sungjae Im
Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos
Good Vibes: Last time out, I called him golf’s “Iron Man,” the dude who just keeps showing up, is quietly excellent, but doesn’t actually win or stand out a ton. I stand by this.
Bad Vibes: It’s starting to seem like he’s floundering just slightly this year. If his normal mode is “upper tier mediocre,” his last three weeks have looked more like “true mediocre,” though not quite down to “journeyman medicore.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? The two most shocking things about Im are that he’s only 27 (hasn’t he been playing for 15 years?) and that he’s only won twice on tour. Five years ago, I’d say he was destined to win at least one major. Now, I think I’ve been radicalized into believing he’ll never break through.
17. Justin Rose
Good Vibes: He just won’t go away! There’s a certain amount of quiet ambition in how hard he’s pushing to get that second major, and you have to tip your cap.
Bad Vibes: Rory losing the Masters would have been the most heartbreaking outcome, but Rose losing was pretty heartbreaking in its low-key way, particularly after the near miss at Troon last year. Is he golf’s new tragic figure?
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Not at this one. Of the four major venues this year, this is the one that’s least conducive to his style of game.
16. Min Woo Lee
Good Vibes: A fun Aussie party boy with a cool nickname who has now upgraded to “tour winner” status? Who says no?
Bad Vibes: Still has relentless kid brother energy.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? He can absolutely crank the ball, so I have to say give a qualified “maybe” here, provided he keeps it straight. Still not convinced he’s a serious person, but I’m getting there. He’s due for a high major finish after his T-5 in 2023 U.S. Open, and I have this secret belief that pretty much all half-decent Australians eventually find a way to get close at majors.
15. Jason Day
Good Vibes: You know the whole “Rory is made for Quail” narrative? It’s 100 percent true, but if Rory didn’t exist, Jason Day would have the most strokes gained for his career at this place, and he won in 2018. It’s such a good course fit.
Bad Vibes: The people live in fear of his clothing.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Yes, slightly better. I’d rank him higher if he had won at any point in the past two years, so I doubt his closer credentials, but I still think this sets up quite nicely for him. Plus, Australia Theory.
14. Russell Henley
Good Vibes: We love to see a man with a receding hairline peaking late in his career. And by “we” I mean “me,” because I also have a receding hairline and like to think the rest of my life is not just a slow march toward death.
Bad Vibes: Made a fool of me by missing the cut at the Masters when I picked him third in the last vibes list.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? This is not the kind of course you’d draw up if you wanted Henley to win, but then again, Bay Hill isn’t either. He’s shown enough class this year to make me a believer, even after he let me down in front of the world at Augusta.
13. Tommy Fleetwood
Harry How
Good Vibes: Considering the pope-mania of the last week, his Jesus look plays better than ever.
Bad Vibes: It’s not his fault, but it’s been seven years since the Paris Ryder Cup and I still can’t get the “Tommy, Tommy Tommy” song out of my head.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Ehhhhh … OK, yes. Coming off two top-10s, it’s a yes. But I don’t know if I actually believe it in my heart. I am Doubting Thomas.
12. Hideki Matsuyama
Good Vibes: He got on a ridiculous heater to set the tour 72-hole scoring record in Hawaii, which means elite golf is not such a distant memory.
Bad Vibes: But where has it gone since? After a thoroughly dominant win like that, we still don’t have another top-10 in 2025? Superstitious golfers say you should never birdie the first hole … I wonder if you shouldn’t win the year’s first tournament either. It could be a curse.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Yes, but he’s got to be so much better off the tee than he has been this year or Rory and Scottie will devour him without mercy.
11. Brooks Koepka
Good Vibes: Have you heard he’s good at majors?
Bad Vibes: If you thought he didn’t care about run-of-the-mill PGA Tour events, wait ’til you see how he doesn’t care about LIV!
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Yes, because Brooks at the PGA is a special confluence of player and tournament that always retains a thrilling sense of possible victory. Any other player on his form wouldn’t deserve to be this high, but if he’s in the mix Sunday they should just start inscribing the trophy. (But they should misspell his name so future generations wonder if there was a player named Bruce Kopeka.)
10. Shane Lowry
Good Vibes: Nearly won the Truist last week, still wearing his heart on his sleeve as we saw when he went into his sad crouch on the 18th green. We love a good sad crouch; it’s a lost art.
Bad Vibes: Seems to loathe the media after his “you need to give us some time” speech at Augusta and skipping press at the Truist. This is 100 percent personal prejudice and probably harsh, but whenever I see someone taking their rage out on some journalist after a tough beat, I get roughly the same feeling I get when I watch someone berate a server at a restaurant.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? The game is there. The winning touch is not. But despite the agony he went through last week, I feel it’s going to increase his desire to cross the line. He’s a little like Rose in that something seems imminent.
9. Patrick Cantlay
Good Vibes: He’s getting fit for Ryder Cup clothing this week along with the rest of the potential Team USA players. I’m dying to know if they measured him for a hat.
Bad Vibes: Still seems the most like a sinister Silicon Valley tech overlord of any player. He’s our Bezos.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Yes indeed. The T-4 last week was nice, but the guy just doesn’t miss. He’s consistent, but high-level consistent, to the point that him finishing outside the top 15 would be a shock here. Soon enough, he’s going to grab a win.
8. Sepp Straka
Andrew Redington
Good Vibes: Last week’s winner!
Bad Vibes: Last week’s winner. (Nobody except Scottie wins twice in a row anymore.)
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? He’s become one of the best players in the sport, and he’d be higher here if his game matched the course just a little better. But, yes, he’s in the mix.
7. Ludvig Aberg
Good Vibes: Still calm, cool, collected, handsome, fun. If I were making a movie about cool fighter pilots—and I might—I’d try to get him to play the lead.
Bad Vibes: Did you know there are only four countries at this tournament with more players than Denmark? It’s true! And I have to assume Aberg’s native Sweden are mortal enemies with Denmark, so he’ll probably be looking over his shoulder quite a bit.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? My only concern here is that aside from the Masters, his recent form has been sluggish. Two missed cuts, two finishes worse than 50th … that’s pretty uncharacteristic from this guy. But I still think he’ll step up at Quail, if he can dodge the Danish hordes.
6. Xander Schauffele
Good Vibes: Like Scottie, he’s had to find his groove after an early injury, but in this week’s presser he had that trademark cocky grin going. As Xander often says, “When the grin is cocky, the golf ain’t rocky.” (Note: He doesn’t say this.)
Bad Vibes: Many concerned grandfathers are worried he is becoming too big for his britches. As they often say, “When the britches are vast, you’ll finish dead last.”
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? For sure. I just think if you’re mapping out his 2025 upward trajectory, the first win probably comes a month from now, and not this week specifically, but I love him to get close.
5. Jon Rahm
Richard Heathcote
Good Vibes: Seven starts on LIV this year, seven top-10s. Plus, he’s in press conferences talking about playing with passion. It’s been some time since the Rahm Mojo was this high.
Bad Vibes: Chose Schauffele as the guy whose putting skills he’d choose to inherit, which is interesting considering Xander is currently 144th in SG/putting. But the pick could have been worse. He could have picked (checks notes) Jackson Suber.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? It feels like an ironclad guarantee that Rahm will finish first or second in one of the next few majors. So, yeah.
4. Collin Morikawa
Good Vibes: Continues to be a man on the verge, deadly with irons, and plenty good off the tee to give him a massive edge over all but five or six players this week.
Bad Vibes: Was not included on the pre-tournament press conference role. Come on, PGA of America! The guy is fourth in the world and a former champ. Put some respect on his name.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Yes. My caveat is that while I’m sure we’ve seen it before, it seems so rare that a breakthrough win comes at a major. Maybe this is old-fashioned thinking, but I expect Morikawa to win on tour before he adds to his major total.
3. Justin Thomas
Good Vibes: Back in the winning groove, baby. New year, new caddie, new putting prowess, new man. You can tell the swagger is within him, and now he’s rolling in to the only major he’s ever won. JT gives off the Rafa Nadal aura, where things are just that much more fun when he’s in the mix.
Bad Vibes: Bad vibes abound … for Europe. The best team match-play golfer of his generation is not a guy they wanted to see on form in a Ryder Cup year.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Absolutely. I still worry that his driving isn’t up to speed to the degree he needs here—it’s much easier to win at a place like Hilton Head without lighting it up off the tee—but he’s just so hot lately that I’m not sure it matters. I even think it might be good for him that he didn’t quite win last week … a little whetting of the old appetite.
2. Bryson DeChambeau
Good Vibes: To outside appearances, Bryson appears to be living his best life in every sense of the word. What’s great about that is he had to earn it. I saw this guy in Memphis during the peak of the Brooks-Bryson feud, and let me tell you, golf seemed a lot like misery then. He’s come a long way mentally.
Bad Vibes: The “Rory wouldn’t talk to me” story from Augusta won’t die. It’s the first bad look from Bryson since he went to LIV, and it weirdly keeps getting resurrected.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Oh, hell yeah. On Tuesday, he described the weakest part of his game as short wedges, and he’ll hit fewer of those at Quail than anywhere else. When a dude can bomb like this, he’s on the inside track before the first shot is hit.
1. Scottie Scheffler
Andrew Redington
Good Vibes: Just dominated at the Byron Nelson for his first win of the year, looks like a world beater again, seems to have recovered from shoving his hand into a wine glass while cutting pasta dough. (Every part of that last clause is true.)
Bad Vibes: Last time he played this tournament, he ended up in jail. In a cruel twist, the PGA of America gave him a morning tee time on Thursday.
Does he have more than a snowball’s chance in hell? Way more. Now that he’s back in top form, it’s hard for me to even talk myself into Rory beating him, much less anyone else in the field. And unlike a lot of players, he seems to thrive after winning in his previous outing. Everything about this tournament screams Scheffler, and even with all the very good arguments for Rory, this is my gun-to-the-head pick.
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This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
