The consensus among golf touts this week? Long, high and straight off the tee will get it done at Quail Hollow. That narrows down the pool of winners considerably, which should make it much easier to pick a winner, especially at a major championship, where the pool is already small. Easy, peasy.
But is it ever that easy? A number of experts on our panel hope so, as we have a near consensus pick for favorite to win. Of course, stranger things have happened at this tournament over the years, though many of those strange things took place in August. May has been just a tad more predictable. We’ll see if that theme continues in Charlotte.
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The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Quail Hollow, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 PGA Championship:
PGA Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Bryson DeChambeau (+950, DraftKings) — I think the win in South Korea was huge for Bryson, especially coming off of Augusta. He’s really played well and been in contention nearly every week. On a long, wet golf course, it really suits his game. He’s also such an underrated chipper, pitcher and putter of the ball, which is why he’s been such a big factor in these majors. I think you’ll see one of top players win this week, and my bet is on Bryson.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Bryson DeChambeau (+950, DraftKings) — Bryson’s ability to overpower PGA Championships and U.S. Opens should always have him in strong consideration as a pick to win. Between LIV and the Masters, he’s played in four consecutive final pairings, finally closing his last time out at LIV Korea. And, among the Big 3 (Scottie, Rory, and Bryson), he is the most reliable on the greens historically. If we get the similar iron play to the Masters, then he’s not going to win, but between his prodigious driving and elite putting, a slightly above average approach week should have him with another late tee time Sunday. One of the best predictors of major performance is past major results and Bryson has four top six finishes in his past five majors and has three top four finishes in three of the past four PGA Championships. Plus, he’s more than double the odds of Rory and Scottie. He shouldn’t be.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Justin Thomas (20-1, FanDuel) — I see no reason to move away from Thomas this week at a number such as this, and his tee-to-green ceiling—statistically—is higher than anyone’s in the field over the past 50 rounds, per datagolf. The putter is vibing, he won the PGA here in 2017, and he has finished second, first and T-2 in his past three non-Augusta starts, and he never plays well at the Masters.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Bryson DeChambeau (+950, DraftKings) — Bryson DeChambeau has the skill set and course history (fourth in 2018, ninth in 2021 at Truist) to win another major championship. Looking for length, DeChambeau is the longest player in the field and primarily plays a right-to-left shot shape. A trajectory that Rory McIlroy has proven successful at Quail Hollow throughout his career. Our winner will need to putt, and my biggest edge for Bryson against Scottie and Rory is his reliability with the flat stick.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Bryson DeChambeau (+950, DraftKings) — Driving distance, long irons and short-game proficiency—that screams Bryson DeChambeau at Quail Hollow. Closing out a victory in his last LIV start will be big for Bryson’s confidence this week, after a bunch of Sundays in a row not being able to finish off a W, he enters this week knowing he can. A wet and soft Quail Hollow trims the list of potential winners here, and I’ll take the better odds with Bryson.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Bryson DeChambeau (+950, DraftKings) — What else needs to be said that hasn’t been said already? I guess I’ll add this – DeChambeau was clearly upset with his poor iron play on Sunday at Augusta National and if I know Bryson like I think I do, that’s probably the No. 1-area he’s been focused on since. His driver and putter are as reliable as they come, and when he does need his short game to come through in a big spot, it usually does. Just a median week with his irons and he’ll at least give us a nice sweat on Sunday.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Scottie Scheffler (+500, BetRivers) — While much has been made about Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau’s power off the tee, Scottie Scheffler remains the best golfer in the world, and his long iron play can easily outmatch the former’s driving ability. Quail Hollow should not provide the adversity that we have previously seen Scheffler struggle at during non-Masters majors, as it is no different than a standard PGA Tour signature event golf course, featuring straightforward architecture and an over-seed that will create predictable outcomes out of the rough. That is Scottie’s music, and I expect him to collect major No. 3 this week.
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Past results: We have another (easy) winner, with our anonymous tour coach correctly predicting Scottie Scheffler’s Byron Nelson win at +300. He now has three wins this year (Rory McIlroy at the Players at 12-1, Rory McIlroy at the Masters at +650), which leads the panel. As a group, we now have eight individual wins in 2025.
PGA Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Shane Lowry (55-1, DraftKings) — Quail Hollow certainly suits a long, high draw off the tee, but it requires more shots than that. Lowry is a ball-striking and an excellent shot-shaper. He had a disappointing Sunday in Philly, but he’s experienced to take that performance and turn it into a positive and be positive affirmation for the state of his game. I’d expect him to be a factor once again this week.
Mayo: Dean Burmester (200-1, BetRivers) — LIV disdain from the public gets us better odds on most of its golfers. Burmester’s been a fringe top 30 player in the world for the past two years, but you’d never know since he’s quite anonymous. Well, Mean Dean is on the longest players in the field and he has a quality short game with the ability to post spike approach weeks, especially with his long irons. He just can’t putt. Hopefully he forgets that and makes a few this week.
Gdula: Viktor Hovland (50-1, FanDuel) — Sleepers and majors don’t always go together, so if you’re looking for some longer odds, you need volatility in a good sense. Hovland has the distance and irons to go deep at Quail Hollow’s setup this week. He’s been a top-10 player by strokes gained at majors since 2020, and has finished T-3, T-43 and T-24 at Quail Hollow in his career.
Stewart: Viktor Hovland (50-1, FanDuel) — Don’t overlook Viktor Hovland this week. If there was ever a setup that fits Hovland’s game year after year, it is the PGA Championship. Kerry Haigh and the tournament officials love to feature speed off the tee, long iron acumen, and aggressive scoring potential. We all know Viktor can check all three of those boxes and has proven it by finishing runner-up in 2023 at the PGA and third one year ago at Valhalla.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (50-1, FanDuel) — The Norwegian is a proven PGA Championship contender, being in the mix at Valhalla without his A-game and finishing T-2 at Oak Hill. He’s gained more than 26 strokes tee to green over the last two years in this event. Coming off a win in Tampa, I believe Hovland’s one of the few players not among the shorter odds who can get it done.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Reed (80-1, FanDuel) — Coming off a solo third at the Masters, a T-17 at LIV Mexico and a T-4 at LIV Korea, it’s clear Captain America has found a little something during a Ryder Cup year. As if that wasn’t motivating enough, U.S. Captain Keegan Bradley said on Tuesday that they invited two LIV golfers to a pre-Ryder Cup team get-together last week: Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau. Quite a slap in the face to Reed, who has been proving everyone wrong his whole career and would love nothing more than to do it again to get to Bethpage Black, where he’s won before.
Lack: Min Woo Lee (90-1, DraftKings) — Min Woo Lee possesses the very straightforward skill set required this week of elite power off the tee and putting upside, which recently propelled him to a victory at the Houston Open, another driver-heavy, long-iron intensive golf course with large, undulating green complexes surrounded by short grass. I expect Min Woo Lee to be right at home at Quail Hollow under similar conditions.
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PGA Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Joaquin Niemann (30-1, DraftKings) — I think he’s struggling at the majors lately as he’s putting too much pressure on himself to validate these special invitations he’s getting into the biggest events of the year. He’s still young and will figure it out, but I think that’ll happen on a different golf course than Quail Hollow.
Mayo: Collin Morikawa (22-1, FanDuel) — It’s a bomber’s track, so for Morikawa to win he’ll have to lap the field in approach and putting. Since he’ll be routinely hitting more long irons than the rest of his elite odds contemporaries his margin for error is far thinner.
Gdula: Jon Rahm (18-1, FanDuel) — Rahm hasn’t played his best golf at recent majors, and his T-14 at Augusta was bolstered by the short game. Minimal Quail Hollow history and recent iron play suggests that 18-1 is too short for Rahm right now.
Stewart: Collin Morikawa (22-1, FanDuel) — What’s going on with Collin Morikawa? The incredibly consistent Collin has been off as of late. Morikawa finished 54th at the limited field RBC Heritage and 17th in Philadelphia after an opening round 63. Looking through the results, his short game and flat stick have been horrible by his standards. The combination of a little putter glitch and a lack of length has me looking past him at the PGA.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (22-1, FanDuel) — I’ve been burned by Morikawa this year … there have been great courses for his skill-set, and he always seems to struggle for a nine- or 18-hole stretch that sets him back. He lacks that elite superpower off the tee that these other elite players, which will put him behind the 8-ball at Quail Hollow.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (18-1, FanDuel) — Rahm’s inability to win a damn LIV event this year should tell you where his game is at – not nearly as “close” as he wants it to be. Add in the fact that this has historically been his worst major and the fact he’s had minimal success at Quail Hollow and it has me staying away from these odds.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (28-1, DraftKings) — As much as I am intrigued by Ludvig Aberg’s elite driving upside, his iron play remains a major question mark. Aberg is coming off a 60th-place finish at the Truist Championship where he lost nearly five strokes on approach, and he has now failed to record a solid approach week since winning the Genesis Invitational in February. It’s difficult to back players to win major championships at this robust of a price in such shaky approach form.
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PGA Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Patrick Reed (-120) over Jason Day (Bet365) — Reed has been playing some solid golf and got his first win in a while overseas. Unlike other LIV guys, he’s still an absolute grinder with an unbelievable short game, and he still craves winning and contending every time he tees it up. There are similarities between here and Augusta, and he has played great on both courses.
Mayo: Patrick Reed (-110) over Jason Day (Coolbet) — Reed enters with great form while Day is struggling through a herniated disc in his neck. Maybe it’s a big nothing burger about the neck, but since I like Reed more anyway, we’ll always have the WD out for Day if he hits a few poor shots and decides he can’t go anymore. As long as he hits a shot, the WD would make Reed the automatic winner.
Gdula: Keith Mitchell (-115) over Byeong Hun An (FanDuel) — This is a pretty even matchup in terms of distance and short game, but the advantage I like here is with Mitchell’s irons. He’s 48th among this field in strokes gained/approach over his past 50 rounds, per datagolf. An is 103rd.
Stewart: Jordan Spieth (-120) over Brooks Koepka (Bet365) — Brooks Koepka has one top 25 in a major championship since winning two years ago at Oak Hill. Koepka’s ball-striking is still in championship form, but the putter and short game are not. Jordan Spieth has been seriously trending since his return from wrist surgery. Quail Hollow requires great touch on the greens, and that’s where my cash is going by taking Spieth in Charlotte.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (-125) over Sungjae Im (Bet365) — I’ll gladly fade Sungjae here. Traditionally, he’s a great approach player—but he’s really struggled in 2025. He’s nearly dead last in this field over the past 36 rounds, ranking 135th, per RickRunGood.com. Berger, on the other hand, is top 20 in this field in approach and is fourth in weighted/strokes gained over the past 36 rounds. Berger might lack distance, but he can make up for it with the elite approach play that Sungjae doesn’t possess at the moment.
Powers, Golf Digest: Min Woo Lee (-105) over Jason Day (DraftKings) — With his length off the tee, Min Woo could very well pop this week, making him a juicy dog in this matchup. Day’s sparkling record in majors certainly scares me but his WD last week with a herniated disc would scare me way more if I were betting him.
Lack: Taylor Pendrith (+105) over Andrew Novak (BetOnline) — Taylor Pendrith’s elite power off the tee should trump Andrew Novak’s approach play in this matchup. Pendrith already has a prior 10th-place finish at Quail Hollow in the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, and his driver in soft conditions will be a major weapon this week.
Matchup Results from the Truist Championship: Tour coach: 1 for 1 (Thomas (-139) over Cantlay); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Berger (-120) over Hovland); Lack: 1 for 1 (Cantlay (-120) over Aberg); (Stewart: 1 for 1 (Schauffele (-120) over Aberg); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Spieth (-120) over Hovland); Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 11-3-2 (up 6.48 units); Hennessey: 11-7-1 (up 3.13 units); Powers: 11-8-0 (up 2.95 units); Lack: 9-8-1 (up 0.79 units); Stewart: 8-11-0 (down 3.28 units); Gdula: 7-11-1 (down 4.99 units); Mayo: 5-13-0 (down 8.05 units)
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PGA Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Sungjae Im (+600, Bet365) — My favorite bet in golf is a Sungjae Im top 10. We’re getting great odds since he’s struggled relative to his baseline this year. But look at the course history for him at Quail Hollow—finishing top 10 each of the past two years here, even with subpar ball-striking performances.
Mayo: Justin Thomas (+210, FanDuel) — Six top 10s in his past 10 starts including a current T-2/T-36/Win/T-2 run entering Quail Hollow has him primed for another Sunday run. JT has the distance to complete but he’s still a notch below the truly elite drivers. And if there’s a part of his game that can send him wayward it’s a coin flip between his driver and putter. The flat stick has been excellent for months now, so it’ll likely be the big stick which will ultimately leave him short of a third Wanamaker trophy.
Gdula: Shane Lowry (+400, FanDuel) — Lowry nearly got it done last week at the Truist and now heads to a longer setup, which isn’t ideal due to his average distance. Still, Lowry is a positive in all four strokes gained areas this year, so I’ll take these odds.
Stewart: Patrick Reed (+600, DraftKings) — Patrick Reed has three more chances to make the U.S. Ryder Cup Team. A doubtful Captain’s pick, Reed is 23rd on the points list. The PGA Championship is worth more points than a regular PGA Tour event. There’s no doubt Patrick is motivated and a good fit for Quail Hollow. Reed was runner-up in 2017 to Justin Thomas and has two more top 10s in three starts since the 2017 PGA Championship. Patrick can putt, and that’s primarily why he is so successful here.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Gary Woodland (+1400, DraftKings) — You need ball speed and power this week, and Gary Woodland has both. He has a nice record at Quail Hollow—finishing fifth in 2021, and I remember interviewing him after he opened with a 68 and was T-3 after the first round in 2017. Give us an OK short game week and Woodland can hang with the big boys. Worth a shot at this price.
Powers, Golf Digest: Corey Conners (+450, BetRivers) — Doesn’t get more trustworthy in this spot than Corey Conners, who will hit a million fairways and gain on approach like he always does. If he has a plus week with the putter, he could win. Mediocre or bad week and he should still be able to cash this one.
Lack: Xander Schauffele (+220, DraftKings) — After beginning his 2025 season sidelined with an injury, Xander Schauffele is slowly rounding into form. The defending PGA Championship winner is coming off a top-12 finish at the Truist Championship where he gained strokes in all four major categories, and he also boasts two runner-up finishes at Quail Hollow.
Top-10 results from the Truist Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Shane Lowry +280); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Shane Lowry +280); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Justin Thomas +175); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 5 for 16 (up 13.8 units); Lack: 7 for 19 (up 12.3 units); Gdula: 7 for 19 (up 12 units); Mayo: 3 for 18 (up 4.33 units); Stewart: 6 for 19 (up 0.1 units); Hennessey: 3 for 19 (down 6 units); Powers: 0 for 19 (down 19 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com