CHARLOTTE — Admittedly, this article became a lot harder to write since I first conceived of it.
Bryson DeChambeau was three back at the time I came up with this bright idea but the combination of a bogey-double bogey-par finish down the Green Mile paired with Scottie Scheffler’s par-birdie-birdie finish leaves him six back of the World No. 1’s lead going into Sunday at the PGA Championship.
Yet DeChambeau is still the most high-powered chaser inside the top 10, and still has a chance to win. Specifically a 2.6 percent chance to win, according to Data Golf.
So can it happen? Yes. He’d need some help from Scheffler, and even then it would only happen if he does these things.
1. Run up the SG margin on his driver
To be honest I’m not really sure DeChambeau does, in fact, need to hit his driver better than he already is. He’s currently leading the tournament in driving distance, and third in strokes gained/off the tee. The only reason I’m including it here is because DeChambeau, himself, says he needs to hit his driver better tomorrow.
“I just have to clean up a couple things in my swing and hit my driver better to give myself more chances,” he said after his third-round 69.
I suppose if you squint you could say that DeChambeau’s SG advantage this week over Scheffler has only been 0.02 shots, and because DeChambeau is longer than Scheffler, he’s technically capable of more. But again, marginal gains.
Kevin C. Cox
2. Go at least three-under on the par 5s
One area where DeChambeau does need to improve is his play on Quail Hollow’s par 5s. He hasn’t been bad by any means—he’s T-17 in par-5 scoring through three rounds—but he’s had some unforced errors on these holes this week.
On Thursday DeChambeau drove into trouble, which forced a layup and a subsequent par. During the second round, he rolled a 60-foot eagle putt more than 14-feet on the 15th, and missed the comebacker. On Saturday, he fluffed a short chip on the 10th to 10-feet and missed the putt.
If DeChambeau has any chance of catching Scheffler the way is if he strips away the one substandard par 5 he’s had in every round so far. Three under on Sunday, or it’s over.
3. Get control of the flight of his irons
There is currently only one player inside the top 10 who is losing strokes with his irons, and that player is DeChambeau. His strokes gained/approach through three rounds is -0.12. The next worse iron player by the stats inside the top 10 is Matthieu Pavon, who is gaining 0.64 on the field.
Irons have been a persistent thorn in DeChambeau’s side all season, and his stats have taken an interesting shape this season as a result. DeChambeau has been running up the margins with his driver and putter, and statistically middling with his irons. It’s unusual; it doesn’t mean DeChambeau can’t play well this way, but we’re really not used to seeing players win majors with iron stats like those. I’m skeptical. I think he needs to flag some iron shots on Sunday to have a chance.
The gift and the curse of DeChambeau‘s ball striking is that he hits the ball incredibly high, especially with his wedge shots, which are extra high anyway because of DeChambeau‘s unique single-length club design. It can all make things really difficult when the wind gets gusting, as it was on Sunday. DeChambeau‘s shots are just hit harder than his peers, and that, ultimately, was what led to his double-bogey on the 16th hole.
“I hit a great 9-iron exactly the way I wanted to. The wind just pumped it. Nothing I can do. The wind flipped from being neutral to being off the right,” he explains. “I hit a great shot, but just made a dumb double.”
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4. Start hot and get the crowd going
On the more intangible end of the spectrum, DeChambeau needs to get off to a blazing hot start tomorrow, and he knows it.
“I’m behind the 8-ball now. I’ve got to get my guns a-blazing,” he says. “I came out firing today.”
The signs are relatively good he can again on Sunday.
DeChambeau has gained a whopping 5.58 strokes on the field on the front nine his past two rounds, more than three full shots than he’s gained on the back nine over the same time (+2.37 strokes gained on the back nine during rounds two and three).
DeChambeau has a knack for whipping up the crowd. A fast start on Sunday is perhaps the only chance of grabbing the stoic Scheffler’s attention. Rattle him or draw some attention, and create some momentum that will send some murmurings through the course.
“It’s not like other sports because I can’t play defense,” Scheffler said. “If I’m thinking about what somebody else is doing out there, that’s not going to be a good thing for me.”
If one thing is for sure, it’s that Bryson will go on offense. The only question is if Scheffler will play ball.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
