Like many things, it began innocently enough.
A golfer friend, who was more inclined to make a wager than I was, wanted to bet $10 on Greg Norman at juicy odds to win the 2008 British Open.
“You’re mad!” I told him, adding that the Shark was a part-time golfer at best. “You’re wasting your money.” And so he punted his ‘Pavarotti’ (our term for a tenner – get it?) elsewhere.
Of course, Norman would turn back the clock at age 53 and lead that Open through 54 holes before sharing third place. Pete issued a few harsh glares in my direction that weekend, although in the end I had the ‘luxury’ of being correct.
About a year later, I began dabbling in betting on golf. I opened one of those online accounts with a betting agency and started making small bets here and there. Initially it was selecting the winner of a certain three-ball but eventually developed into picking players to win outright. I wasn’t placing huge sums – $5, $10 and the odd $20 bet were my staples – as I’ve always been of the opinion that a big loss hurts far more than a big win feels good.
I enjoyed some decent wins along the way. I backed Phil Mickelson when he won the 2010 Masters, had the temerity to foresee Ernie Els’ 2012 British Open victory based on his form at that year’s US Open and had a little cash on Adam Scott and Jason Day for their Major victories. My best win was taking Bill Haas at 60-1 to capture the US Tour event at Riviera in 2012, while my luckiest came courtesy of Rickie Fowler at the Players Championship two years ago. He was my pick for the week but, by pushing the wrong button, I inadvertently put my entire bet on him to win at 40-1 rather than making it each-way, as I had intended. So when he won in a playoff, he added money to my bank account as well as his own, just as K.J. Choi did for me at the same tournament four years earlier.
My one ‘talent’ in this whole caper was: I possessed an uncanny knack of having the right player in extra holes. For some mysterious reason, if the player I was backing found his way into a playoff, my record was flawless. Choi, Scott, Haas, Fowler, Jordan Spieth (who I profited from when he claimed the 2015 Valspar Championship) and J.B. Holmes (2015 Houston Open), each delivered a victory in overtime and the latter four against multiple opponents.
Of course, few punters recount their losses, of which there are always many more than there are wins. But I will. There were dry spells that made the Simpson Desert look like a lush oasis. I also had another knack of backing players who looked great for 18, 36, 54 and even 63 holes but who came up empty when it counted.
This run led me to take a different approach. I began waiting until the tournament had started before placing any bets. I found that the halfway mark still yielded some value if you could predict who was poised to make a weekend charge.
Another mate gave me his theory, which was along the same lines as my own. He calculated (guessed?) that the winning score was the starting point for selecting a winner once at the 36-hole mark. He reasoned that whoever sat in sixth place – or equal sixth – at the midpoint represented half the total under-par winning score. So if the player in sixth was eight-under through two rounds, the winning score would be 16-under. Having devised that figure, he then looked at which players were circling in the pack behind the leaders and had the form and talent to reach the winning total. This group, he figured, still offered adequate value.
My advice to anyone punting on golf or thinking about it is twofold. Firstly, do it primarily for the enjoyment or buzz rather than in a bid to make serious money. Secondly, golf is a really hard sport to bet consistently well on – there are just too many variables at play. That’s why waiting until mid-tournament or until after the third round can make more sense. You mightn’t bag the big collect
but little fish are sweet.
I closed my betting account after the Presidents Cup in 2015 (the scene of another good win) for two reasons: I was no longer using it very much and I’d reached a goal figure in the account. The thrill had largely gone for me. I do still place the odd golf bet via the TAB but with limited success and, frankly, I’d now rather just watch the sport for the pleasure of the contest rather than trying to predict who might triumph in any given week.
Sometimes, though, I still feel like I know who’s going to win…
