A surprisingly star-studded field descends on Palm Springs this week for The American Express, which features a three-course rotation and a 54-hole cut. Scottie Scheffler leads the way as the favorite, while Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre and Ludvig Aberg round out the rest of the top five on the odds board.
Historically, longshots have fared quite well in the Desert, though. But the presence of Scheffler could certainly change things on that front.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
RELATED: The American Express 2026 power rankings: Can a longshot threaten Scottie Scheffler?
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 American Express:
The American Express picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Russell Henley (22-1, BetMGM) — He’s never experienced the success you’d expect from him at PGA West, but he hasn’t played this event since 2022 and he did come T-14 that season. Now four years in the future, Henley’s a top 10 player in the world and still possesses the accuracy, wedges, and putting that are over-indexed at this tournament.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Ben Griffin (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — In his last two trips to The American Express, Ben Griffin has finished ninth and seventh. Griffin is great with a wedge and a putter, two specific skills winners have used adeptly to take home the AMEX trophy. Ben’s average strokes-gained/total over the last two years is +9.8 strokes on the field. Griffin is a different player than he was when he earned those top 10s; he’s better. A fourth win in nine months would definitely prove it.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Si Woo Kim (35-1, DraftKings) — Si Woo Kim lapped the field in SG/tee-to-green at last week’s Sony Open. He lost over a stroke per round on the greens, which can be Kim’s undoing at times. The good news here is that over the past two years, he’s +0.22 strokes per round putting on Poa Trivialis greens, the only surface where he’s at or above the field average per Betsperts Golf. Over that same two-year time frame, Si Woo Kim is eighth in SG/ball-striking on courses that lean “less than driver” heavy, and SG/total on short and very short golf courses.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Sam Burns (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I’ll back one of hte best putters on the PGA Tour in a **** putting contest. Our new DFS writer, Ron Klos from Betsperts, pointed out in his piece on Tuesday that Sam Burns is fifth-best in this field in birdie fests since 2021. He excels in wedge proximity and has great history at PGA West.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Harry Hall (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — One thing I made the mistake of too often last year was jumping off the hot hand right before they won. I won’t make that mistake with Harry Hall, who I was on outright and top 10 last week and he came through with a very solid T-6. While his experience at AMEX is limited, it’s a tournament where great ball-strikers who can putt the lights out thrive. Right up the Englishman’s alley.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Robert MacIntyre (25-1, BetRivers) — Robert MacIntyre is coming off a quiet fourth-place finish at the Sony Open where he gained over three strokes in both ball-striking categories. MacIntyre is also an excellent putter, and he performed well last year on similar courses such as TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale.
Past results: We posted 13 individual victories in 2025 after our tour coach hit his SEVENTH outright winner with Ben Griffin at 14-1 at the World Wide Technology Championship.
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The American Express picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Alex Smalley (100-1, BetMGM) — Normally, I’d hesitate to back Smalley at an event which requires so many one-putts to get into contention, yet, after digging into his putting splits, Smalley’s best surface is actually Poa Trivialis where he’s gained 0.31 strokes putting per round over the last year. Smalley is wildly inconsistent but has been solid tee-to-green and has the ability to spike with two top-five finishes in his past four starts. Very sneakily third in SG/total on Pete Dye courses over the past three years, too.
Stewart: Si Woo Kim (35-1, DraftKings) — Guess what? Si Woo Kim putts really well in the Palm Desert. In seven complete AMEX starts, Kim has posted six positive trips with the flatstick. Si Woo has gained over two strokes for the event five times with his putter. Kim led in SG/tee-to-green in Hawaii, gaining 11.5 strokes on the field. That was two strokes more than his nearest tee-to-green competitor. Admittedly, the putter was bad at Waialae. If Kim can conjure up one of his normal putting performances on the Stadium Course along with his recent ball striking, this 35-1 ticket will cash.
Noonan: Alex Noren (50-1, BetMGM) — Alex Noren is a pretty streaky player historically, and I’m looking to ride the wave of recent good play. Noren won the Betfred British Masters in August and then won the BMW PGA Championship in September. He was an assistant captain for Luke Donald’s European Ryder Cup team at Bethpage, but he could’ve easily been on the team as a player. He posted two other top 20s on the DP World Tour this fall and then finished runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama at the Hero World Challenge in early December. The numbers show that he likes shorter tracks and Poa Trivialis greens.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (80-1, BetRivers) — This number is bananas to me. Akshay is one of the most talented young players on the PGA Tour and excels when he has room to navigate off the tee. He’s a great wedge player and can get a hot putter … take advantage of this number on the 23-year-old two-time PGA Tour winner.
Powers, Golf Digest: Nick Dunlap (125-1, BetRivers) — You see his T-61 finish last week and think “yuck.” I see that he finished second in the field in SG/approach and he rolled the rock OK, too. Add in the fact he won here as an amateur, won’t need to rely on driver too much (his worst club) and it’s worth a deep ball at triple digits.
Lack: Daniel Berger (65-1, DraftKings) — Daniel Berger has played well at this event in the past, including a 21st last year, and he is coming off a sixth-place finish at the Sony Open where he gained over a stroke and a half in both ball-striking categories. Even more encouraging, Berger putted well at Waialae too, which has historically been his biggest weakness.
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The American Express picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Scottie Scheffler (+320, BetRivers) — In an event which stabilizes the floor of the worst golfers, there’s a reason we’ve seen so many long shots win the AMEX over the years. I’d feel more comfortable betting Scottie at this number against a full field of the world’s best at a hard course than a putting contest in the desert.
Stewart: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Ludvig Aberg did not look sharp in the SoFi Center a couple of weeks ago. I know it is simulator golf, but that should be easier. A rookie at the AMEX, Aberg struggles from close range. Par 5 scoring from 75 yards and in is vital to contending. Without a world-class short game, I wonder about his ability to keep up across all of these short scoring chances and get to 25 under par.
Noonan: Scottie Scheffler (+320, BetRivers) — Sure, this is terrifying, but we’re playing a price-sensitive game, and Scottie Scheffler’s price is untenable, especially at a venue that mitigates his edge. At less than 3-to-1 to win in some places and around -120 to top five? Can’t do it.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (16-1, BetRivers) — This number is way too short. I bet Henley more than most, but he tends to play his best when driving accuracy is more essential. I realize there’s plenty of trouble to be found off the tee, but I didn’t love his ho-hum start in Sony last week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I’m not in the fade Scottie Scheffler business, even though I agree the number is crazy in a tournament where his key strengths won’t allow him to separate. So that leaves me with Ludvig, who is making his AMEX debut.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I am definitely bullish on Ludvig Aberg in 2026, but I have very little interest in deploying him at a putter-heavy contest that he has never played before. The American Express limits Ludvig’s ability to create separation with his driver as well.
The American Express picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Ben Griffin (-110) over Robert MacIntyre (Coolbet) — Obviously, Griffin has taken a leap over the last 12 months. He’s now a three-time winner and now returns to a site which was plenty comfortable for him before he was a top 10-ranked player in the world. Griffin’s gotten better in each of his three AMEX starts (T-7/T-9/T-32), on the back of excellent putting performances on the greens at the stadium course. In six career rounds he’s gaining a gaudy 2.37 strokes putting per round. Now, in 2026, Griffin has morphed into a top tier tee-to-green player as well, while excelling from 50-to-125 yards. A proximity range seen more at this event than any other on tour.
Stewart: Harry Hall (-118) over Sepp Straka (BetMGM) — Many of my leans this week favor players who played and played well at the Sony Open. Harry Hall is an excellent desert golfer who we know can go low. Sixth place on Sunday at Waialae, Hall gained three strokes with the putter and another five tee-to-green. Sepp Straka is our defending champion. The last player to successfully defend their title was Johnny Miller in 1976. Too many variables in play for me to grab Sepp again. Instead, I’m taking one of the hot hands from a week ago.
Noonan: Akshay Bhatia (-110) over Pierceson Coody (BetOnline) — I’m leaning on my model here, and Akshay Bhatia is head and shoulders above Pierceson Coody for me this week. Coody’s putting has been incredibly inconsistent, and he’s been mediocre at best on short courses with easy scoring conditions. Bhatia’s an elite wedge player, which matters at this week’s short layouts. He’ll also benefit from clubbing down at a decently high rate, since spraying driver all over the property has been a root cause for a lot of his inconsistent play over the past 18 months. Bhatia also shows well on Poa Trivialis greens, gaining 0.47 strokes per round on average over the past two years.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Michael Thorbjornsen (-120) over Harris English (Bet365) — English plays his best golf on tougher setups, so I’ll happily fade him against Thorbjornsen, who can light it up and use his ball-striking as a weapon in Palm Springs.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (+100) over Ludvig Aberg (Bet365) — If you’re going to fade somebody, you might as well actually bet against them. I’ll roll with Burns, one of the best putters in the world in what Jon Rahm once called a “piece of s—t putting contest.”
Lack: Sam Burns (-115) over Ludvig Aberg (Southpoint) — This is an easy one, as Sam Burns is one of my favorite plays of the week, while Aberg is my fade. Burns possesses both far superior course history and is a demonstrably better putter.
Matchup Results from the Sony Open: Stewart: 1 for 1 (MacIntyre (-105) over S.W. Kim); Lack: 1 for 1 (Conners (-130) over Rai); Tour coach: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Noonan: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Stewart: 1-0-0 (up 0.95 units); Lack: 1-0-0 (up 0.77 units); Mayo: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Noonan: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Hennessey: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit); Powers: 0-1-0 (down 1 unit)
The American Express picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Si Woo Kim (+320, Caesars Sportsbook) — A former champ, Si WOOOOOOO was on fire ball-striking wise over the weekend at Sony and has a history of beating up on Pete Dye tracks. Now, his putter remained as bad as usual, but he does have a history of rolling it well at PGA West. He’s gained on these greens four of the past five years, averaging 1.75 SG/putting per round in those years.
Stewart: Lee Hodges (+1100, FanDuel) — Only seven players in this field have two top 10 results in the last nine calendar weeks, and Lee Hodges is one of them. Hodges closed 2025 with a fourth place at the RSM Classic and started 2026 with a sixth place at the Sony. The putter has been straight fire, and Lee has held his own tee-to-green. I love the comp course of TPC Twin Cities for Pete Dye’s Stadium Course. Hodges won the 3M Open in 2023 and has third place finish at The American Express. With Lee’s ability to keep the ball in play and an outstanding run with the flatstick, I’m going for the top 10 trifecta.
Noonan: Matt Fitzpatrick (+360, Caesars Sportsbook) — I think we’re going to see big things from Matt Fitzpatrick this season, and that starts this week. He’s made 16 starts since the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow (T-8 finish), and he’s landed among the top 10 in nine of the 16 starts, including a playoff win over Rory McIlroy last time out in November at the DP World Tour Championship. His short game is all the way back, too, and that matters a ton this week because you’ll need to get into the 20-under range to top 10 this week. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Noren (+500, Bet365) — Noren’s fourth-best in this field over the past 50 rounds in easy scoring conditions, per The Rabbit Hole. He’s been on an absolute tear, and he should continue that on a great setup for him. Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (+550, FanDuel) — Berger crept into the top 10 last week with a Sunday 64 thanks to hot irons and an even hotter putter. So he’s already in birdie-making mode, a good sign for a tournament where every winner has been 20 under or better since 2007. Lack: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+700, Caesars Sportsbook) — Christiaan Bezuidenhout is an ideal fit for the AmEx, and he has already recorded a runner-up finish here. The South African also finished the season on a high note with a ninth-place finish at the Alfred Dunhill and fourth-place finish at the Nedbank. Top-10 results from the Sony Open: Lack: 1 for 1 (Daniel Berger +600); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Harry Hall +410); Powers: 1 for 1 (Harry Hall +410); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Lack: 1 for 1 (up 6 units); Stewart: 1 for 1 (up 4.1 units); Powers: 1 for 1 (up 4.1 units); Mayo: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Noonan: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Hennessey: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
