During the past 10 years, there’s been one stat that his predicted the Champion Golfer of the Year: the past 10 Open Championship winners have combined for more than 720 holes played in wind, rain, among pot bunkers and thick fescue, and have combined for just two double-bogeys.
Two.
How do they get so good at avoiding these big numbers? That’s what we went looking for in the data, and according to Arccos, 86 percent of all double-bogeys or worse come from just five mistakes. That’s it. Five decisions or execution errors that, when combined, almost always lead to disaster.
The takeaway? Pros aren’t immune to bad shots, but they’re elite at avoiding bad holes. And that’s what separates them from the rest of us. Because while you can’t eliminate mistakes entirely, you can make sure they don’t snowball.
Here’s a breakdown of those five key mistakes – and how you can apply the same tactics pros use to avoid turning small errors into big numbers. You can also watch the full breakdown in Golf Digest‘s most recent episode of The Game Plan right here:
Mistake No.1: Three-putting
The fix: Stop being afraid of coming up short
This one might feel obvious, but it’s a classic compounding error. Maybe you hit a drive out of play, took a drop, then three-putted for double. Or maybe you missed the green in regulation, chipped on and three-putted anyway.
Depending on your handicap, somewhere between 25 percent and 40 percent of doubles involve a three-putt. And while the missed short putt gets the blame, it’s usually the first putt that sets the stage.
Golfers hate leaving putts short – especially for par. They get aggressive, blow it six feet past, then miss the comeback.
DECADE Golf founder Scott Fawcett’s data shows that the less aggressive golfers are with their first putt, the closer they tend to finish. His advice? On any putt, imagine a circle around the hole that’s about 10 percent of the putt’s length. A 40-footer? Aim to stop it within four feet – not past it.
It’s no coincidence that the five players with the best double avoidance rates since 2020 all rank inside the top 10 in approach-putt proximity. They’re not making everything – they’re avoiding three-putts altogether.
Mistake No.2. Multiple chips
The fix: Manage expectations, and keep the ball on the ground whenever possible
About 20 percent of doubles come from needing more than one chip to reach the green. You chunk it. Leave one in the bunker. Then scramble to limit the damage.
Pros rarely do this. Why? Because they keep things simple. Around the green, they prefer low-launch, controlled shots – even using fairway woods like putters when needed.
It’s not fancy, but it works. From 25-50 yards, a 5-handicapper averages about 23 feet from the hole. From bunkers, it’s closer to 30 feet. If you leave yourself a 20-footer, that’s a win.
Mistake No.3. Penalty off the tee
The fix: Don’t be afraid of aiming into rough
Drives into penalty areas are huge red flags. Arccos shows scratch golfers make double-bogey 33 percent of the time when they find trouble off the tee.
Jon Sherman, author of The Four Foundations of Golf, has a rule: if there’s a hazard on one side and space on the other – aim away from the hazard. Rough is better than re-teeing.
Mistake No.4. Heroic recoveries
The fix: Chipping out is more valuable than you think
You’ve hit a bad drive. You’re not in a hazard, but you’re in a tough spot. The mistake? Trying to erase the damage in one swing.
Aggressive recoveries that fail often advance the ball less than a shot’s worth – and keep you in trouble. Fawcett says a 100-yard pitch out is worth exactly one shot. Going for more than that is a gamble.
Luke Donald’s strategy? Think two or three shots ahead. He zig-zags his way towards the green, avoiding trouble and setting up easy pitches back across the hole.
Mistake No.5. Approach penalties
The fix: Use the bail-out formula that pros use
The final mistake: hitting your approach into a penalty hazard. According to Arccos, scratch golfers make double nearly 60 percent of the time when this happens. For 10-handicappers, it’s closer to 80 percent.
The fix is learning to bail out. If the trouble is short, go long. PGA Tour caddie Paul Tesori says pros average the distance between the pin and the back edge and play that number. It’s a simple way to take short-side danger out of play.
Shane Lowry did just that at Royal Portrush in 2019 – bailing short-right, catching a slope and watching his ball funnel safely onto the green.
Avoiding blow-up holes isn’t glamorous. It’s not highlight-reel stuff. But it’s how you win. Whatever your trophy is, this is how you chase it – by turning big numbers into manageable ones. That’s the real secret of the pros.
