There’s a common theme depicted in our Odds Drop video this week (watch the video below). The 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson lacks serious star power and the most well-known names in Dallas aren’t catching the attention of Read The Line and the Golf Digest experts. The tournament favorite on the betting board is Dallas native Jordan Spieth. Some books listed his opening odds as low as 10-1! He currently is wavering around 14- or 16-1, but in any case, what has Spieth closed in recent memory? His last victory was over two years ago.
The PGA Tour’s most popular son has only won twice in the last seven years. A year ago, he was ranked ninth in the world after losing in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. He is now ranked twentieth. Jordan has missed three of his last five cuts including the Masters. I believe there are better betting favorites on this board. Before we go there, another popular name you will hear this week is Tom Kim. Kim’ odds are floating in the high 20s.
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At +2800, does the three-time tour winner bring value? Following his win in Las Vegas this past fall, Kim was ranked 11th in the world. He’s currently 23rd and falling quickly. There are only 14 weeks of FedEx Cup points left available, and Kim is ranked 77th and outside the top 70. I don’t like the trend as his current ball-striking numbers continue to decline. A better bet is Mark Hubbard. Fresh off a third place in the birdie chase down in New Orleans, Hubbs has been just the opposite of Kim.
Mark is currently ranked 43rd in FedEx Cup points and 76th in the world. That may not sound like much, but just three months ago in January, Hubbard was ranked one 102nd in the OWGR. His odds at the CJ CUP are 70-1. Considering his recent play, he represents more value than these two “favorites.” My Monday advice is to grab Mark Hubbard to win the Byron Nelson. The betting conversation around him will only grow and those odds will quickly drop.
If you think the odds don’t move that much, our Monday outright pick of Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin started the week in the 40s for the Zurich. By Wednesday night, some boards listed them in the high teens! Take our Monday advice and act quickly. Betting value never seems to remain long on the board once the weekly market conversation kicks in.
For our other bets and our selections for the worst value options for the 2024 Zurich Classic, make sure you watch our weekly “Odds Drop” video:
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly podcast, “The Loop” (above), where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
