The prediction business is difficult stuff. But since the end of the US Open we’ve compiled a ranking of the golfers with the best chance of walking away from the Open Championship with the claret jug. Here’s the final edition of our list to help you prepare for the year’s third Major.
1. Jason Day
Open Championship History:Â T-4 last year
Reason To Pick: The clear World No. 1 leads the US PGA Tour this season with three wins and has top-10s in the year’s first two majors. Day’s dominant run began after a close call in this event last year.
Cause For Concern: Does he hit the ball too high to contend in high winds? And it doesn’t matter who it is, 7/1 are some pretty short odds.
Open Championship History:Â Five top-10s, including four in a row
Reason To Pick: It’s hard to believe the Aussie hasn’t claimed a claret jug yet given the way he’s played in this event the past few years. Most notably, four straight bogeys on the back nine in back-to-back years cost him the title in 2012 and 2013.
Cause For Concern: Since back-to-back wins earlier this spring, Scott hasn’t posted a top-10.
Reason To Pick: Did you see how he hit the ball at Oakmont? DJ’s ball-striking was breathtaking as he finally claimed his first major. And now that that monkey is off his back, who knows how many more are in his future.
Cause For Concern:Â After coming back and winning the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, not much. Backlash about his decision to skip the Olympics? Maybe, but not likely.
4. Rory McIlroy
Open Championship History:Â Winner in 2014
Reason To Pick: Along with Zach Johnson, McIlroy is defending his British Open title (from 2014) this week after missing last year’s event due to a soccer injury.
Cause For Concern: After winning the Irish Open, McIlroy missed the cut at the US Open. He has vowed to stay away from playing soccer, but you never know.
5. Jordan Spieth
Open Championship History:Â T-4 in 2015
Reason To Pick: Spieth came incredibly close to winning a third consecutive major at last year’s Open despite all the focus and pressure on him for pursuing the calendar Grand Slam. His two wins and a runner-up at the Masters this year have him just behind Day for favourite status again.
Cause For Concern: Spieth’s amazing run of contending at majors ended at five with a T-37 at the US Open. In recent weeks, he has said he’s trying to play quicker and with more fun. Not sure if he should be changing what’s worked for him in the past.
6. Sergio Garcia
Open Championship History:Â Nine top-10s, two runner-ups in 19 tries
Reason To Pick: Historically, this has clearly been Garcia’s best major with his two close calls coming in 2007 to Padraig Harrington and 2014 to McIlroy. Garcia also recently contended at the US Open and won the AT&T Byron Nelson, his first PGA Tour title in nearly four wins.
Cause For Concern: He missed the cut in his only start at at Royal Troon in 2004. And he’s Sergio Garcia.7. Louis Oosthuizen
Open Championship History:Â 2010 champ; lost in playoff in 2015
Reason To Pick: Oosthuizen is one of just a handful of players in the field who can boast two top-two finishes in this event. Plus, he’s got no problem dressing for any conditions.
Cause For Concern: Both those high finishes came at St. Andrews. In seven other starts, his best finish is a T-19 and he’s missed two cuts.
8. Shane Lowry
Open Championship History:Â T-9 in 2014; three for four in cuts made
Reason To Pick: Lowry was the 54-hole leader at Oakmont before a final-round 76 dropped him to T-2. That finish, along with his win at last year’s WGC-Bridgestone, prove he’s capable of performing on golf’s biggest stages.
Cause For Concern:Â Can he put that final round at the USÂ Open behind him quickly enough?
9. Justin Rose
Open Championship History:Â Two top-10s, five missed cuts in 14 tries
Reason To Pick:Â One of those two top-10s came in Scotland last year with a T-6 at St. Andrews. Of course, the other came in 1998 when he finished T-4 at Royal Birkdale as a 17-year-old amateur.
Cause For Concern: In addition to a spotty Open record, Rose didn’t qualify for the 2004 event at Troon. The 10th-ranked player in the world also been battling back issues in recent weeks, and he missed the cut at the U.S. Open.
10. Rickie Fowler
Open Championship History:Â T-2 in 2014; T-5 in 2011
Reason To Pick:Â Fowler’s two top-fives (plus a T-14 in 2010) in only six starts indicate an ability to play in the wind.
Cause For Concern: Fowler’s recent string of three consecutive missed cuts have dropped him out of the top five in the Official World Golf Ranking.
11. Zach Johnson
Open Championship History:Â Defending champ; top-10s in three of last four years
Reason To Pick: Like at the US Open, ZJ just doesn’t seem to be getting the respect he deserves for someone who won a major less than 12 months ago. In addition to his win at St. Andrews, he’s been trending up in this event for some time.
Cause For Concern: A T-8 at the US Open was just Johnson’s third top-10 of the season and he’s still searching for his first win since claiming the claret jug.
12. Brandt Snedeker
Open Championship History:Â T-3 in 2012; Also with four missed cuts in seven tries
Reason To Pick: Snedeker’s finishes in 2012 (T-3) and 2013 (T-11). His win earlier this year at Torrey Pines proved again that adverse conditions, especially wind, don’t bother him.
Cause For Concern:Â Since a 3-2-1 stretch earlier in the year, Snedeker has just one top 10 (a T-10 at the Masters) and missed five cuts.
13. Branden GraceOpen Championship History:Â Made the cut in all five starts; best finish is T-20 a year ago
Reason To Pick: Grace has a solid Open track record and he’s coming off seriously contending at the U.S. Open for a second consecutive year. Also, he got a lot of backing by gamblers at Oakmont, so maybe somebody knows something.
Cause For Concern: Because of his high world ranking and his play in the US Open, Grace’s odds are a bit low.
