After a torrid West Coast swing, the PGA Tour heads to Puerto Vallarta for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. A relatively new addition to the PGA Tour schedule, this will be the fourth edition of this event with the prior three being won by Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Jake Knapp. If you are noticing a theme, all three winners present a ton of power off the tee and are excellent long iron players. Vidanta Vallarta is a wide open, driver heavy, Paspalum resort course and its primary defense is its sheer length. With over 60 percent of approach shots coming from over 175 yards, the Greg Norman design is one of the most long-iron intensive courses on the PGA Tour.
While this is a natural off week for many of the PGA Tour’s best players, the Mexico Open presents a break-through opportunity for many intriguing young players. Akshay Bhatia and the Hojgaard brothers headline the field this week, and Jake Knapp will return to defend his title. This week certainly presents an opportunity on those who are willing to do the legwork on some lesser-known players. Let’s dive into the DraftKings slate.
$9,000+ range Play: Kurt Kitayama, $10,200 
TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA
I continue to believe in Kurt Kitayama’s ball-striking upside, and his combination of power off the tee and elite middle to long iron play should pay dividends at Vidanta Vallarta. Unsurprisingly, Kitayama recorded a runner-up finish in his lone appearance at this event, gaining strokes in all four major categories.
Fade: Harry Hall, $9,300
While Harry Hall can certainly get hot on the greens, his lack of elite driving upside puts him behind the eight ball on this course. The Englishman ranks outside the top 60 in all major off the tee stats I am looking at this week, and it appears to be getting worse before it gets better. Hall has now lost over a stroke in both ball-striking categories in his past two starts.
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$8,000 range Play: Alex Smalley, $8,700 
Orlando Ramirez
There is something about wide-open, Paspalum resort courses that just seem to fit with Alex Smalley. The former Duke grad ranks top 10 in this field in strokes gained total on Paspalum, strokes-gained total on resort courses, and going for the green birdie or better percentage. His above-average length, long iron play and aggressive style of play is incredibly conducive for these types of courses, and it does not come as a surprise that he has already notched a sixth-place finish at Vidanta Vallarta. It’s time for this extreme talent to continue showing his promise.
Fade: Thorbjorn Olesen, $8,200
While we know that Thorbjorn Olesen is capable of great results across the pond, the Dane continues to underwhelm on the PGA Tour. This will be Olesen’s first PGA Tour start since the Wyndham Championship last August, and he has started off his 2025 campaign slow on the DP World Tour as well, failing to finish top 25 in three starts.
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$7,000 range Play: Erik Van Rooyen, $7,500 
Orlando Ramirez
Similar to Alex Smalley, Erik Van Rooyen has also played some excellent golf on Paspalum resort courses. The winner of the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal, Van Rooyen has already recorded an eighth-place finish at Vidanta Vallarta. While the South African’s form this year has left a lot to be desired, I’ll gladly buy low on a strong course fit.
Fade: Patrick Fishburn, $7,800
While Patrick Fishburn’s power off the tee is intriguing at this golf course, I am concerned about his recent approach play. Fishburn has now missed three cuts in a row, and he lost strokes in both ball-striking categories most recently at the Phoenix Open.
Flier: Rico Hoey, $7,200 
Joe Scarnici
Rico Hoey presents the exact combination of power off the tee and long iron play that I am looking for this week, and he certainly comes at a discounted price. Hoey ranks top 15 in this field in recent off the tee play, strokes gained/off the tee on driver-heavy courses with a low missed fairway penalty. While the short game and putter remains a concern, this is baked into his price, and I’m willing to take a shot on the ball-striking upside.
Andy Lyons
Similar to Rico Hoey, I am always looking to find discount power hitters at Vidanta Vallarta. Gordon recorded a top-25 finish in his lone appearance at the Mexico Open, and he is coming off a recent seventh-place finish at Torrey Pines, another driver-heavy, long-iron intensive golf course.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
